Since the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, international political analysts have been concerned that China could attempt to take advantage of the fact that international attention and efforts have been somewhat diverted by the Ukraine crisis, and seek to take similar action in Taiwan. Beijing, which considers the self-governing island to be a breakaway province, has threatened on several past occasions that reunification is only a matter of time and could be achieved via force if necessary. However, are these comparisons with the Russia-Ukraine conflict valid?
China and Taiwan have both vehemently and repeatedly dismissed such comparisons. Taiwanese Cabinet spokesperson Lo Ping-cheng said in a statement earlier this month that “those using this opportunity to manipulate the so-called (topic) of ‘today’s Ukraine, tomorrow’s Taiwan’” are “trying to inappropriately link Ukraine’s situation with Taiwan’s” and “disturbing people’s morale.” He further argued that “Taiwan has a natural barrier of the Taiwan Strait, which separates it from China. In all areas, the two cannot be compared.” Similarly, China has also warned that drawing such parallels is proof of a “lack of the most basic understanding of the history of the Taiwan issue.”
Yet, despite dismissing the parallel, there are indications that Taiwan is worried that China may make a move. Since the onset of Russia’s invasion, which Beijing has in part supported, the Taiwanese government has been on high alert. “We watch the changes calmly and we are prepared accordingly,” Defence Minister Chiu has said of Taiwan’s preparedness against the backdrop of war in Europe.
In fact, Taiwan’s military strategists have also been studying Ukraine’s resistance in the hopes of formulating their own battle strategy for a potential Chinese invasion. Pointing to Ukraine’s ability to leverage fighting on its home ground to its advantage, the island’s defence ministry said in a statement that its forces have already been incorporating “asymmetric warfare” into their own planning. Moreover, the government is also considering extending compulsory military service beyond the current four months, Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said last week.
We can't afford to get so tied up & bogged down with Russia & Ukraine that we lose sight of the challenge Communist China presents, particularly with the designs that it has on Taiwan.
— Senator Bill Hagerty (@SenatorHagerty) March 23, 2022
We need to help Ukraine in a measured way that takes into account America's interests first.
However, while Chinese military aircraft have continued to infringe on Taiwan’s air defence identification zone over the past month, Taiwan has reported no other unusual Chinese manoeuvres. But considering China’s power-grabbing strategy in other territories, this lack of direct action in Taiwan is not surprising. While China does indulge in border infringements, its primary strategy is to corrode and cripple its targets from within.
Let’s consider the example of Hong Kong. Instead of waging an all-out war on the autonomous region, China set out to consolidate power in the region through a slow-burn strategy, making gradual but firm steps over a period of months, if not years.
It made its first significant attack on Hong Kong’s autonomy in 2020 by passing the draconian National Security Law (NSL), under which it can now punish “subversive activities” by pro-democracy individuals as well as businesses (including media) under the vague and broad umbrella of sedition. Similarly, school textbooks and syllabi were overhauled to align with the mainland’s narrative of nationalism and allegiance to ensure that future generations would have no doubt about Hong Kong’s sovereignty, or lack thereof.
Under the current international tensions, the DPP authority has intensified collaboration with external forces & incited secession, which is the root cause of the tense & turbulent situation in the Taiwan Straits & will only push Taiwan into disaster: China's Ministry of Defense pic.twitter.com/T0bSwYXdgH
— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) March 24, 2022
Beijing hammered yet another nail in the coffin of Hong Kong’s sovereignty last May by passing the Loyalty Law, which now allows it to remove public officials from office and bar candidates from standing in elections if they are deemed “disloyal” to local authorities or China. The first Legislative Council (LegCo) election that was held under this law in December 2021 was evidence of just how effective China’s bullying tactics have been. 82 of the 90 seats are now occupied by pro-Beijing lawmakers, and only one candidate is from a non-establishment camp.
Similarly, China has been attempting to erase the culture of the Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang through forced sterilisation and re-education camps, and by incentivising the Han Chinese population to settle in the region and “cleanse” the demographic. It has accomplished all this under the false pretence of rooting out terrorism and fostering national unity.
Therefore, it seems unlikely that China would willingly opt to be bogged down by the immense financial and human costs of war when it can instead slowly erode Taiwan’s independence, particularly when one considers how Western opposition to its policies have not extended beyond rhetoric or minimal and ultimately harmless sanctions.
That being said, China’s own limitations have also stopped the country from invading the island. Taiwan has a near-monopoly in the semiconductor industry (semiconductors are critical components in automobiles, smartphones, computers, medical equipment, the internet, aircraft, fighter jets, and hypersonic weaponry), which has made it indispensable to both the United States (US) as well as China, as neither possess the capacity to produce their own advanced semiconductors. This advantage has created a metaphorical “silicon shield” against Chinese invasion and virtually guarantees US support against Chinese aggression.
Similarly, both Russia and Ukraine are major players in the agricultural sector. In fact, the shortage of fertilisers due to the conflict has exacerbated worldwide food insecurity. However, many countries, including India, have been able to control the damage by diversifying their trade portfolios by turning to Morocco, Israel, and Canada. So while Ukraine’s contributions were significant to food security, other options were available to fill the vacuum. However, the same may not be true for Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, which occupies a unique and more irreplaceable position in the supply chain.
Day 28 since our protest before Moscow Taipei Office daily.
— standwithukraine_tw (@stwithukrainetw) March 25, 2022
Since few days ago, we have started to witness this every afternoon: a red school bus passes before us and a group of Taiwanese students lift up their signs to show their support for us and Ukraine. Thank you, Taiwan! pic.twitter.com/K926KtSYHH
Furthermore, just like Taiwan, Chinese President Xi Jinping, too, is taking lessons from Russia’s invasion. While US intelligence correctly predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine, it was completely off the mark in predicting that Kyiv would fall as quickly as two days into the war. In spite of its limited military resources, Ukraine has now sustained attacks for over a month. Furthermore, independent reports suggest that Russia has lost upwards of 7,000 soldiers in Ukraine and that troop morale is low, with several captured soldiers seemingly unaware of why they are in Ukraine in the first place.
Taiwan is also guaranteed protection by the US, which boasts the world’s largest military. Under the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act, which forms the basis for Washington’s relationship with Taipei, the US is required to provide the island with the means to defend itself and protect it in the event of any aggression against it. In fact, the Biden administration has reiterated that it is keeping a close watch and warned China that any threatening moves against Taiwan would be a “serious mistake.” While there remains a great deal of ambiguity about how exactly the US would respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, if Xi has taken any warnings from the Ukraine war, it would be that he cannot underestimate Taiwanese resilience, even in the absence of Western support. Furthermore, unlike Russia, which had the advantage of striking via land, China faces the added difficulty of undertaking an amphibious invasion.
Xi is likely to be further dissuaded by the exorbitant costs that come with an invasion. According to researchers, the daily cost of Russia’s invasion—including logistics, personnel, ammunition, fuel, rocket launchers, and so on—will likely exceed $20 billion. In addition, economists and government also place a monetary value on human life. According to a rough estimate based on life expectancy and GDP per capita, a death toll of 10,000 Russian soldiers would correspond to a loss of more than $4 billion. Furthermore, Western sanctions and the fall of the ruble are predicted to set Russia’s economy back by at least 30 years and undo virtually all the progress made since the end of the Soviet era. Over 400 foreign companies have completely suspended operations in Russia.
In contrast, China was the only major economy last year to not just have reported recovery but also exceed its pre-pandemic growth levels. Considering that it just celebrated ending extreme poverty last year, it is unlikely that Beijing would want to jeopardise this robust growth already.
Nevertheless, even if it will not come today, China remains steadfastly focused on reunification. Admiral Philip Davidson, the former head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, predicted last year that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in six years. Mirroring the prediction, Jin Canrong, a Chinese professor of international studies added that the 2027 deadline also has a very symbolic value for the Communist Party because it will be the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Moreover, Xi called on the PLA to fully modernise itself by 2027.
While Taiwan most likely risks enduring the same fate as Hong Kong in a few years, the risk of imminent threat remains low and offers time to prepare. By advancing and strengthening its defence capabilities and broadening its diplomatic and military ties, Taiwan is increasing its chances of standing up against the world power, which will inevitably come for it. Whether that will be in 2027 remains to be seen but Xi is sure to have reconsidered his plan of action after the disastrous Russian invasion of Ukraine.