Belarus is witnessing its largest marches for freedom. Citizens, activists, and allies around the globe are protesting against President Alexander Lukashenko’s autocratic regime. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Lukashenko’s major political rival, has been consolidating international support and leading the movement to steer the country towards democracy. However, despite mounting international pressure and sanctions on the regime, Lukashenko continues to stand firm.
Belarus witnessed its first and last democratic elections in 1994, when Lukashenko was declared as the country’s rightful ruler. Lukashenko took advantage of the post-Soviet “grey zone” comprised of people’s unfulfilled expectations of a better life to consolidate power and assemble a group of loyalists. In 1996, he abolished the separation of power essential for democratic governance by changing the constitution, disbanding the democratically elected Parliament, and replacing them with a group of loyalists. Through several such referendums, he laid the groundwork for the first pillars of an indiscriminate autocratic regime. In 1999 and 2000, Lukashenko resorted to physically eliminating opponents and had four people, including political dissidents and pro-democracy businessmen, disappear to curb opposition.
After securing another five years in power in the 2001 election, Lukashenko paved the way for unlimited extensions of his term and has thus remained the president since 1994. It was thus no surprise that he emerged victorious once more in the highly disputed 2020 election, which citizens, opposition, and international actors claim was rigged. The regime has responded to ensuing protests with violent crackdowns on protests and dissidents, with various human rights abuses reported. In fact, opposition politician Tikhanovskaya, who was defeated under dubious circumstances, was forced to flee the country and now lives in exile in Lithuania.
The fallout from the election pushed the European Union (EU), the United States (US), and various others in the Western bloc to impose sanctions against Belarus, which include the blacklisting of officials and the freezing of overseas assets. The regime was subjected to another set of sanctions in May, when a Ryanair flight that was flying from Greece to Lithuania was diverted to Belarus under the pretext of a security threat to arrest dissident Roman Pratasevich and his partner. After the incident, the EU banned Belarusian flights from using European airspace and vice versa; other countries took similar measures. On June 24, the EU announced further sanctions against Belarus’ potash, tobacco, and oil industries.
Tikhanovskaya, during a visit to Paris last month, urged France to leverage its ties with Russia to pressure the Belarusian regime to hold free and fair elections. She said, “I am sure we will be able to bring our country peacefully to new elections, but to make this possible, we have to be consistent in the struggle and use every opportunity, consistently fighting and resisting.”
Against this backdrop of rising international pressure, Tikhanovskaya has stated with conviction that Lukashenko’s regime will collapse. Yet, Belarusian authorities continue to carry out widespread repressions by targeting journalists, independent media, and civil society. The Lukashenko regime appears unwilling to enter into any form of negotiations, even as a face-saving measure. Given that Belarusian military officials and elites remain loyal to him, and the fact that several opposition figures have either been imprisoned or forced into exile, Lukashenko has little incentive to make any concessions, even superficial ones, thereby emboldening him to continue to use violence as a means of political suppression.
While the imposition of sanctions and the associated economic risks may be considered to be a motivating factor, Lukashenko has instead used this as an opportunity to strengthen ties with Russia. The Belarusian leader has often presented the Western collective as the common enemy and used this rhetoric as an avenue to secure continued economic, political, and security support from Russia. After years of frayed bilateral diplomatic ties over energy disputes, last year, Russia and Belarus agreed to resolve their energy spat light of Western sanctions against the Lukashenko government. Russia agreed to resume energy supplies to Belarus and also offered to help the Belarusian government quell political public anger and protests after Lukashenko secured another term in the 2020 election. Russia has also provided Belarus with subsidies worth $4 billion annually.
Considering that Russia itself has been on the receiving end of an increasing number of sanctions by Western actors, it has used the turmoil in Belarus to effectively expand its regional influence and bolster its strategic resolve. Just last month, Russia and Belarus conducted joint military drills. In exchange for this economic and strategic support, Belarus has publicly backed Russia in its opposition to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s plan to expand its military presence in Ukraine.
Some experts have posited that Lukashenko’s moves to firmly join hands with the anti-Western bloc are part of a larger ploy to push the West to ease sanctions in order to contain the risk of an expanding Russian footprint. For instance, EU sanctions on potash and tobacco have forced Belarus to find a new market in Russia and use the country’s ports instead of a port Klaipeda port in Lithuania to export products to Asian markets.
Moreover, Western actors remain concerned that so long as the effect of sanctions on the Belarusian economy remains limited, there is little incentive for Lukashenko to change course. An industry analyst with the Russian investment bank noted that the “measures do not cover the key Belarusian potash export, potassium chloride, which … accounts for 80% of the country’s supplies to the EU.” Furthermore, EU sanctions on Belarus’s potash supply has allowed Russian potash producer Uralkali to take over Belaruskali, the world’s largest potash producer. Therefore, the sanctions have done little to achieve their stated objective of facilitating free and fair elections and instead merely laid fertile breeding ground for Belarus to become more dependent on Russia.
All things considered, even in the face of historic protests, overthrowing Lukashenko’s regime remains as big a challenge as ever, and one that has only increased in difficulty in light of Belarus’ increased dependence on Russia. This has further eroded the possibility of free and fair elections and of an end to human rights abuses. Moreover, Belarus’ engagement with the anti-Western bloc only seems to be gaining momentum, particularly with the advancement of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the two countries’ reciprocal stand on human rights concerns raised by the West.
What’s Keeping Belarusian President Lukashenko in Power?
Alexander Lukashenko's regime in Belarus continues to stand firm despite isolation, international sanctions, and intense protests.
October 5, 2021
SOURCE: DAILY SABAH