A new report published by the Lowy Institute found that the US has lost influence to China in Southeast Asia in the past five years.
Key Findings
- The US’ influence in Southeast Asia has diminished in comparison to that of China over the past five years in all four categories measured by the Asia Power Index: economic relationships, defence networks, diplomatic influence, and cultural influence.
- The US’ influence exceeds China’s in only two Southeast Asian countries: the Philippines and Singapore.
- China’s influence is greater than that of the US by large margins in Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar due to geographical proximity and relatively weak US engagement.
- However, the US’ defence relationships are much stronger than China’s in the region.
- Whereas, China has increased its lead over the US regarding economic relationships in Southeast Asia.
- China has a considerable lead over the US in diplomatic influence, but the US’ cultural influence, strengthened via media reach and people-to-people connections, remains higher.
Our data shows that China is more influential than the United States in all but two countries - the Philippines and Singapore. US defence networks remain very strong, but China's economic relationships have grown rapidly (no surprise here). pic.twitter.com/IMWcdcffM2
— Susannah Patton (@SusannahCPatton) April 20, 2023
Notable Changes
Since 2018, the US has lost the most overall influence in Malaysia, slipping by seven points. According to the report, this decline was driven by China’s gains in defence networks and diplomatic influence, most notably by Kuala Lumpur’s controversial purchase of Chinese Littoral Mission Ships.
The US enjoys the highest diplomatic influence in Indonesia compared to any other country in the region, although it is still lower than China’s.
China now invests significantly more than the US in the Philippines — a situation that has been reversed since 2018, when the US was a much bigger investor in the country than China.
The picture for defence ties (which we assess by looking at combined training, dialogues, deployments and arms sales) is more mixed. Cambodia-China ties clearly an outlier. pic.twitter.com/ZmIfMGENPx
— Susannah Patton (@SusannahCPatton) April 20, 2023
In Vietnam, the US’ loss of influence was driven by the strengthening of Hanoi’s defence relationship with Beijing, reflected by more defence dialogues held with China than with the US in 2021.
The report concluded that if US economic relationships continue to decline at the same rate over the next five years, Beijing’s overall regional influence will exceed Washington’s.