While the COVID-19 pandemic presents a grave threat to public health, emergency measures adopted to combat the crisis can also have a detrimental impact on democratic systems. As countries all over the world postpone electoral activity due to coronavirus fears, it is important to understand the implications of such measures on democracy, especially in areas with already weakened electoral infrastructure.
The African continent–which over the years has witnessed some of the most important stories of democratic struggles and successes, and has experienced the longevity of infectious diseases–is particularly vulnerable to democratic backsliding during the ongoing crisis. What do potential delays mean for leaders who risk overstaying their welcome? What happens to places where stability is already hanging by a thread?
Elections have been scheduled for this year in 24 African countries and the autonomous region of Somaliland. Some have already taken place, and some have been postponed to the second half of 2020 or later. This is not a new phenomenon; elections have been rescheduled before.
In 2018 for instance, voting for the presidential election in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was postponed in three regions for three months amid the outbreaks of Ebola and interethnic violence. However, in the absence of transparent and strong leadership, the postponing of elections–albeit necessary from a public health and security perspective–can result in a decline in civil and political rights, and erode trust in democratic institutions.
In the case of the DRC, the most-affected regions of Beni, Butembo and Yumbi, were strongholds of opposition to the incumbent president, who was attempting to install his chosen successor after holding on to his powers beyond the end of his final term. Voters in the three regions were therefore disenfranchised, as their opportunity to cast ballots came long after national results had been announced.
Technically, there are a number of ways that democracies can mitigate the damage caused by health-related election delays. Polling sites can be restructured to accommodate social distancing and remote-voting procedures can be introduced. To ensure credibility, the decision to postpone should be backed by ample evidence, and should be announced after consulting with all relevant political and civil society stakeholders to ensure proper communication and transparency. Though postal voting may not be a very realistic option for Africa, with mobile phones easy accessible across the populace, experts have suggested looking at digital forms of voting as an alternative.
Mobile phones have already been used to encourage political participation and monitor elections in Ghana. According to Andrew Small, the reason for the success of such initiatives was that they were “tailored to Ghanaian styles of communication and creatively negotiated limitations in infrastructure and access”. Adapting such measures to other country contexts and expanding them to include digital voting would require strong leadership encouraging technological innovation, investments and planning.
Unfortunately, given the strange circumstances presented by this particular pandemic, where the conventional rules of politics and diplomacy have been taken over by draconian measures, there is now a unique opportunity for leaders to cement their powers and advance their own interests, rather than serving the needs of their people.
In the case of Malawi, things did not look too promising for incumbent President Peter Mutharika until February. The country’s constitutional court had just annulled the May 2019 vote that had declared him a winner, citing widespread “irregularities”, and called for a vote rerun within 150 days. With momentum now on the side of the opposition, Mutharika’s chances to win the vote, scheduled for early July, appeared slim. However, as news spread of confirmed coronavirus cases in Africa, he wasted no time in taking full advantage of these exceptional circumstances.
Since early March, Mutharika has dissolved his cabinet and appointed a new one filled with loyalists, fired the head of the army, and declared a national disaster, which gives him extraordinary powers to introduce mitigation measures. Now that public gatherings of more than 100 people are banned, the protests that once dogged his administration are suddenly now illegal. While these are necessary measures to contain the spread of the virus, they are also proving to be extremely convenient for Mutharika. It will not be surprising then, if he pushes to delay the July poll, to buy himself more time in office and further tighten his grip on power.
Ethiopia has also indefinitely postponed the highly anticipated August general election due to coronavirus concerns. The announcement on March 31 generated widespread speculation about what this would mean for the country’s efforts to move away from decades of authoritarian rule and build a democratic system of government. The elections would have been 2019 Nobel laureate and PM Abiy Ahmed’s first contest since his 2018 victory.
There is also the looming question of legitimacy, because if the elections are not held by September and a new parliament is not constituted by October, there will not be a legitimate government. Since opposition leaders are already unhappy with the government’s process of announcing the postponement, it is important for Abiy to find a legal way out of this conundrum and do so through sufficient consultation with all relevant parties and stakeholders. This will be crucial so as to not undermine Abiy’s sweeping political and economic reforms and threaten Ethiopia’s already fragile democratic system.
Though there has been some improvement in African elections, such as Mauritania’s leader stepping down to abide by term limits, emergency measures and grabs for power are being seen in countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Burundi and Togo, among others–all of which have general elections scheduled for 2020. Earlier this year, Presidents Ouattara of Côte d’Ivoire, and Nkurunziza of Burundi, agreed to not try and extend their terms in 2020. However, as is being seen elsewhere in the world too, once a state of emergency is declared, leaders may become reluctant to give up their powers, and override human rights and democratic provisions, which may very well be the case in Côte d’Ivoire and Burundi. Thus, though not a root cause, this pandemic is creating an environment conducive to democratic backsliding.
Troublingly, in the case of COVID-19, with great powers currently occupied with problems of their own, there is an unprecedented lack of oversight and subsequent international pressure. While elections are being postponed in all parts of the world, the stakes of delaying such processes are much higher in Africa, as they are likely to have a significant impact on election credibility, political trust, and adherence to term limits across the continent.
Additionally, parliamentary and local government elections, affecting the day-to-day lives of citizens in places like Mali (May), Namibia (November), Somalia (December), Senegal (late 2020), and Gabon (late 2020) may also be disrupted by this pandemic, further hindering any real progress towards sustainable democracy in the region.
As the coronavirus spreads across Africa, the political climate in the region is ripe for autocrats to push anti-democratic agendas. Whether regional democratic consolidation is strong enough to sustain the blow from this crisis remains to be seen; however, that it will shape the political future of the continent and the world is certain.
Image Source: Atlantic Council
The Impact of the Coronavirus on Electoral Democracy in Africa
April 17, 2020
