A new report by a US-based business intelligence company found that high political uncertainty surrounding Taiwan could result in international inaction during time of crisis.
Key Findings
The report, published by Morning Consult on Friday, found that:
- Public views of Taiwan are generally positive — in the US, as well as globally.
- This trend is seen to be improving, as more countries become wary of China’s dominance.
- However, public uncertainty could constrain political leaders’ willingness to intercede on behalf of the self-governing island should China invade.
- In the US, Democrats view Taiwan more favourably than Republicans, though vast numbers on either side remain unsure of their position. Similarly, uncertainty looms over favourability among independents.
- Public attitudes among the US’ Western allies are especially uncertain.
- Views in Asia — especially among ASEAN member nations — are more favourable overall, perhaps owing to the region’s direct experience with China’s “territorial bullying.”
- Close political relations with China are no guarantee of a negative public perception of Taiwan. For instance, more Russian and Saudi adults view Taiwan favorably compared to those who do not.
In the United States, Democrats hold more favorable views of Taiwan than Republicans, though large shares of both are unsure of their views. Uncertainty outpaces favorability among independents. https://t.co/YLd1q5qaSy pic.twitter.com/HHomjhNfzn
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) May 12, 2023
“Cataclysmic World War”
“Taiwan is an important linchpin in the global technology supply chain as well as a vibrant democracy located in a strategically important naval corridor,” the report stated.
It goes on to say that the island’s complicated relationship with the two nuclear superpowers risks drawing them both “into a direct conflict that, in a worst-case scenario, could spiral into a cataclysmic world war.”
Who likes #Taiwan the most:
— Jason I. McMann, PhD (@jimcmann) May 12, 2023
Philippines: 67%
Singapore: 66%
Japan: 61%
Malaysia: 60%
Vietnam: 59%
Thailand: 56%
Indonesia: 53%
India: 51%
Australia: 48%
Saudi Arabia: 45%
South Korea: 44%
Germany: 43%
US: 42%
UK: 39%
Russia: 33%
France: 32%
More here: https://t.co/U8ULyQWzmW
Conclusion
The report concluded that speaking to “strong public doubts” about supporting Taiwan, explicitly or implicitly, “is ultimately worth the price of incurring China’s wrath.”
It stated that “despite overwhelmingly positive perceptions” of the island, “high levels of uncertainty — especially among major Western powers — speak to the limits of Taiwan’s ability to win global hearts and minds.”
“Should China move against Taiwan, our data suggests public uncertainty could constrain policymakers’ willingness to intercede on the island’s behalf more than is commonly presumed, both in the United States and abroad,” it underscored.