India’s neighbourhood saw heightened tensions recently as Pakistan and Iran exchanged missile strikes inside each other’s territories. The surprise attacks sent waves of fear among observers, who wondered whether the situation would escalate further.
As the two nations attempt to normalise their ties in the aftermath of the conflict, we examine the timeline of the attacks and the reasons behind the strikes.
Iran’s Attack on Pakistan
In an unexpected move, Iran launched missile and drone strikes into Pakistan’s Balochistan province on 16 January. Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have struck two headquarters of the Jaish al-Adl militant group in the Koh Sabz (Green Mountain) area of Balochistan.
Iranian media reported that Iran struck two headquarters of the Baluchi militant group Jaish al-Adl in Koh Sabz in Pakistan’s Baluchistan. Find more:https://t.co/TK6TsdXnOg#India #Pakistan #Baluchistan #JaishalAdl #Iran #Tehran
— Statecraft (@statecraftdaily) January 20, 2024
Following the attack, the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed that two children were killed and three girls injured in the strikes. However, Iranian Foreign Minister (FM) Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that the country had “only targeted Iranian terrorists on the soil of Pakistan.”
Pakistan’s Retaliation
In the aftermath of the unilateral strikes, Pakistan downgraded its diplomatic ties with Iran and recalled its ambassador to the country. Condemning the strikes, Islamabad said that they were a blatant violation of Pakistani sovereignty. Further, it expressed disappointment that the strikes occurred “despite several channels of communication” between the two countries.
Moreover, in a bold move, Pakistan launched “Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar” in the Sistan-Balochistan province of Iran less than 48 hours after the Iranian attack. The counterstrike on the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) killed nine, including seven non-Iranian nationals.
Who Were the Targets?
Both countries claimed to have attacked terror hideouts during their strikes. The Sunni-Salafist Baloch militant group Jaish al-Adl, targeted by Iran, and BLA and BLF, attacked by Pakistan, are some of the many groups fighting for the independence of “Greater Balochistan.”
The attacks have brought into focus the Baloch tribe, which is a Sunni Muslim pastoral group spread across Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan. Sharing a 909 km long porous border, the countries affected by Baloch insurgency have accused each other of harbouring Baloch-linked militant groups several times in the past.
The Sunni minority has faced persecution in Shia-ruled Iran from the times of Shah Reza Pahlavi to the present regime under Ayatollah Khamenei. In Pakistan, despite being inhabitants of the country’s most resource-rich province, the Baloch are impoverished. There have reportedly been over 7,000 cases of enforced disappearances among the minority group in the Punjabi-dominated nation. Additionally, the Baloch face cultural and economic discrimination and impoverishment in both nations.
The Pakistani foreign ministry said that a number of terrorists were killed during the intelligence-based operation in the Sistan-Baluchistan province of Iran. Read more:https://t.co/atV7NWyfyd#Iran #Pakistan #Tehran #Islamabad #India #China
— Statecraft (@statecraftdaily) January 18, 2024
Why Were The Attacks Undertaken?
The rationale behind the Iranian attack on Pakistan is still unclear, as the two nations share a volatile but stable relationship. The attack took place on the same day when the Pakistani caretaker PM, Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, met the Iranian FM in Davos. Additionally, the navies of both nations were participating in a joint military exercise, and an Iranian delegation was visiting Pakistan.
The strikes came a day after Tehran attacked targets in Iraq and Syria. Further, the spree of military attacks followed a double suicide bombing in Iran’s Kerman province on 13 January, which killed around 100 people.
The Iranian target in Pakistan, Jaish al Adl, was behind a December attack on an Iranian police station. While Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K) claimed responsibility for the 3 January attack, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, highlighted that after the attack, the Iranian government presented evidence to Pakistan linking Jaish al Adl to the attack. Kugelman said that while Tehran had urged Islamabad to take action against the group operating from within its territory, Pakistan took no action, forcing Iran to undertake the attacks.
It appears that Iran targeted Jaish-al-Adl in Pakistan because it claims it was linked to the IS-K-claimed attack in Iran on January 3. Is that sufficient cause to carry out its strike in Pakistan, with the damaging consequences to its interests that followed? Doesn't seem so.
— Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) January 19, 2024
Meanwhile, Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at SWP Berlin, says that the Iranian attack is the result of rising domestic and external pressure. As the Khamenei regime sees weakening support amid political and economic instability in the country, it appears that the attack on a nuclear-armed country was a distraction from the present situation. With parliamentary elections due in six weeks, Iran was under pressure to exhibit a show of strength, reflecting that the regime is capable of ensuring the security of its people and avenging any attacks.
Moreover, with Iranian-backed proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis involved in conflicts in the Middle East, hardliners in Iran feel that the country is not doing enough. The scale of the direct military attack on Pakistan was unprecedented and aimed to send out a message to these critics. Additionally, the current attack seems to be a spillover of the conflict in the Middle East, with Iran seeking to broaden the ongoing regional conflict.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s retaliation comes as the country reels under a challenging economic and political crisis ahead of the upcoming general elections. The country’s response seeks to rebuild the perception of its military being strong enough to fight back on provocation.
“Pakistan likely feared that if it had not retaliated — and if it had not retaliated swiftly — the chances of another Iranian strike on Pakistani soil would have increased,” Kugelman posited.
Many also believe that Pakistan’s retaliation may have come while keeping India in mind. The Iranian attack took place when the Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was visiting Iran. With former instances of Indian strikes inside Pakistani territory, Islamabad’s swift response sends a message to its neighbouring nation that it is capable of carrying out cross-border strikes if the need arises.
De-escalation, Fear of Spillover
Despite the hostilities, Iran and Pakistan have focused on easing the tensions quickly. Pakistani FM Jalil Abbas Jilani talked to his Iranian counterpart a day after the strikes and agreed to coordinate on countering terrorism and de-escalating the tensions. Envoys of the two nations also returned, with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi saying that the border is an “opportunity for economic exchange and security promotion and should be protected against any insecurity.”
As per understanding between the two countries, Ambassador of Pakistan, Muhammad Muddasir Tipu @AmbMudassir arrived in Tehran today while the Iranian Ambassador in Pakistan Amb Reza Amiri Moghadam @IranAmbPak arrived in Islamabad.
— Mumtaz Baloch (@Mumtazzb) January 26, 2024
While these efforts helped assuage fears of an escalation of the tensions, the killing of nine Pakistani nationals in Iran in a brutal attack on 28 January has reignited tensions between the two nations. Pakistan has sought Iranian cooperation following the attack, while Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani condemned the attack and said that the two nations “won’t allow enemies to damage the brotherly ties.”
This series of events suggests that Iran and Pakistan need to tread carefully and solve the root issue concerning the Baloch as they navigate through the current situation. Social activists have expressed concerns that the two nations might even use the occasion to reintensify their crackdown on the Baloch population.