Most Russians believe their country is on the right track, despite Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent ‘march of justice’ on Moscow, a Morning Consult survey revealed.
Although last weekend’s events in Russia were widely reported as a coup attempt, a military uprising, or the beginning of a civil war, since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in late February 2022, there has been unwavering optimism about Russia’s strategy among the citizens.
Russian’s Perceptions Remain Positive
Russians’ perceptions of their country’s trajectory remain steady, even after the events that took place over the weekend. The Wagner coup attempt most likely reflects the general public’s willingness to “wait and see” as official state narratives develop after the group’s march on Moscow.
Longer-term political dynamics that existed before the current crisis, such as consistent domestic media support for the conflict, the relocation of opposition members from Russia since February 2022, and the increased risk of preference falsification among those who remained (as a result of legal restrictions on criticising the armed forces and their operations abroad and fear of political retribution), are also potential causes.
According to the assessment, the biggest threat to Russian pro-war unity would be more military setbacks, especially those that lead to further army mobilisation, especially if harsh sanctions accompany them.
Recent events confirm that casualties on the battlefield can lead to political instability. But thus far, elite power struggles are having more of an impact on public perception than changes in public sentiment.
In case you need some data to cut through all the noise on #Russia: The large majority of Russians continue to say the country is moving in the right direction. Wagner's march on Moscow had no immediate impact on sentiment on this front.
— Jason I. McMann, PhD (@jimcmann) June 26, 2023
More here: https://t.co/7ppP6XzlP9 pic.twitter.com/gMIMKQRR3Y
Do Russians Support the Ukraine War?
Various polls conducted in Russia by the government-backed Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VtsIOM) and independent researchers, such as the Levada Centre, demonstrate that the conflict in Ukraine has the support of the majority, with a stable of 70-74% supporting the war.
The devotion to the great Russia that needs to reclaim its control has pushed Russians to support the “anti-terrorist operation” in Syria and the “liberation movement” in Donbas, and embrace Crimea’s seizure.
Nearly 80% of Russians have remained neutral, attempting to avoid opposing movements.