In a similar fashion to the presence of Blackwater during the US-led Iraq war in 2003, Russia now has its own equivalent of unaccountable actors appearing on the scene. Operating as a private military contractor, ‘The Wagner Group,’ led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, reportedly emerged in 2014 to engage in combat activities in Crimea after being tried and tested in Syria, Libya, Mozambique and Crimea. The Russian military strategically employs Wagner to achieve certain objectives, such as maintaining plausible deniability to evade international scrutiny and criticism for their involvement in conflicts. They leverage the flexibility of engaging in non-military activities and consider logistical advantages as well. While some view them as potentially useful tools for governments, others express concerns about their potential to carry out unethical and illegal missions.
Both the Wagner Group and Blackwater have garnered notoriety due to their involvement in numerous controversial incidents, including allegations of human rights violations such as the excessive use of force and the indiscriminate killing of civilians. Additionally, both organisations have faced accusations of corruption and operating beyond the confines of the law. This connection further highlights the concerns surrounding their activities and underscores the potential ethical and legal implications associated with the use of private military contractors. In more recent times, the Wagner Group has faced allegations of conspiring to incite a mutiny within Russia.
In the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, where the Wagner Group maintains a significant presence in the battle for Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the group, has claimed that thousands of his personnel have been killed due to the conduct of the Russian military in the war. Prigozhin’s perception may be that President Vladimir Putin is not providing sufficient support to his group. Notably, Prigozhin recently announced that his forces would withdraw from Bakhmut by 1 June, relinquishing their positions, ammunition, and supplies, including dry rations, to Russian military soldiers. This move has been regarded by experts, including prominent Russian nationalist Igor Girkin, a former commander of separatist forces in Ukraine’s Donbas region, as a potential “mutiny” in the making. Prigozhin, often referred to as “Putin’s cook,” has further criticised Russian officials for their inadequate handling of the Bakhmut situation, asserting that the invasion of Ukraine has backfired.
Prigozhin’s recent statements have provided further support for the claims of mutiny within the Wagner Group. He highlighted during an interview that Russia has allowed Ukraine’s legitimisation and, as a result, they have been rapidly militarising. “In terms of demilitarization […] if they [Ukraine] had 500 tanks at the start of the special operation, [now] they have 5,000 tanks. If they had 20,000 skilled fighters, now 400,000 people know how to fight.” Prigozhin expressed concern over the legitimisation of Ukraine and blamed the Russian government.
In another interview, Prigozhin went as far as suggesting that Russia should emulate North Korea’s model for a certain number of years. In a conversation with pro-Kremlin political analyst Konstantin Dolgov, Prigozhin expressed his dismay at Ukraine’s global recognition, comparing them to the Greeks during the era of the Hellenic League. He acknowledged that the Russian “special operation” had not only failed militarily but also had adverse effects on Russia’s international image and relationships.
Despite being part of the opposition, Prigozhin surprisingly praised the Ukrainian army, stating, “I think that the Ukrainians today are one of the strongest armies.” He commended their organisational skills, training, intellectual capabilities, and the diverse range of weaponry they possess. Prigozhin drew parallels to the unity and determination displayed during the Great Patriotic War, emphasising the Ukrainian army’s relentless pursuit of their objectives.
According to Girkin, Prigozhin’s critical remarks serve as a foundation for a potential “mutiny” and “coup” against the Kremlin, utilising the Wagner Group. Girkin argues that Prigozhin’s pessimistic perspective on the war is evident in his statement that “the Ukrainians [...] will restore the borders of 2014, and this can easily happen.”
Girkin notes that Prigozhin has reignited his ongoing feud with the Kremlin by saying that Putin’s attempts to “demilitarise” and “denazify” Ukraine have backfired and achieved the opposite effect. Moreover, in a video released by WarTranslated, Girkin warns that if Prigozhin remains at the helm of the Wagner Group, a mutiny will rapidly and radically unfold. Should Wagner attempt a coup by swiftly withdrawing to rear locations, Russia risks being caught off guard during the subsequent counter-offensive. Girkin forecasts that by the end of summer, the political situation in Russia may become irreconcilable.
Amidst this backdrop, it becomes important to examine the potential reasons behind Prigozhin’s alleged plot for a coup. Drawing parallels to what occurred with Blackwater after the Nisour Square massacre, it is hypothesised that the Wagner Group could face a similar fate. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has initiated an inquiry into suspected war crimes committed by the Wagner Group in Ukraine. Prigozhin may be concerned about potential prosecution for his involvement in the conflict, leading him to seek favour with the West by orchestrating a coup against Putin. This could be seen as an attempt to gain protection from prosecution based on the guidance of his Western allies.
Another scenario that emerges is rooted in the long-lasting war in Ukraine, which has created a power vacuum and subsequent frustrations in Moscow. Prigozhin might be positioning himself to capitalise on this situation by rallying the support of the Russian military and people, advocating for mutiny to depose a vulnerable Putin and seize power.
Alternatively, it is plausible that Prigozhin’s statements about a mutiny are not genuine. The video in which he made these remarks could have been doctored or a product of Russian AI ingenuity. Nonetheless, the fact that Prigozhin made such statements is significant, suggesting a growing discontent with Putin within Russia.
However, it is crucial to emphasise that there is currently no concrete evidence indicating that the Wagner Group intends to turn against the Russian government. Reports of internal discontent should be regarded as just that: reports. It is more likely that the organisation is dissatisfied with the management of the conflict in Ukraine rather than posing a genuine threat to Putin. In fact, this could potentially be a “disinformation campaign” aimed at calming and weakening the Ukrainian side, leading them to drop their guard.
Nevertheless, if a genuine coup were to occur, the Wagner Group appears to be gaining strength. Prigozhin’s recruitment efforts within Russian prisons, where he promised amnesty to inmates who fought with Wagner in Ukraine, resulted in the enlistment of 50,000 prisoners. Many of them were sentenced during the Putin administration, fuelling their anti-Putin sentiment. Prigozhin claims that due to mismanagement and lack of support from Russian troops led by Putin, 10,000 of these recruits became cannon fodder in Ukraine, further intensifying their discontent. Should the Wagner Group turn against the Russian government, Putin may face catastrophic consequences, particularly if there is any involvement from the West. The possibility of the West deposing Putin to install Prigozhin in power, thereby puppeteering Russia, cannot be entirely ruled out. It resembles a classic government overthrow scenario straight out of the CIA playbook.
In conclusion, while the allegations of a coup plot by the Wagner Group remain unverified, the potential consequences of such an event would be far-reaching, posing significant risks to Putin and potentially involving the West. The situation underscores the complex dynamics and uncertainties surrounding private military contractors and their roles in conflicts, as well as the intricate geopolitical landscape in which they operate.
Russian Roulette: Wagner Group Goes From Private Contractors to Power Brokers
Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has criticised the Russian military's strategy in Ukraine and accused Putin of not supporting his private army, sparking rumours of a coup plot.
June 11, 2023
IMAGE SOURCE: Prigozhin Press ServiceYevgeny Prigozhin (C) holds a Russian national flag in Bakhmut, Ukraine, 21 May 2023