Russia announced Monday that it was withdrawing from a crucial arrangement that authorised the export of Ukrainian grain, raising concerns about global food supply and sabotaging a rare diplomatic achievement amid the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative was a set of agreements negotiated by the UN and Turkey last year in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and blockade of Black Sea ports.
Russia’s Withdrawal
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that Russia will not extend the deal at this time, claiming that it “has been terminated.” The grain agreement was terminated because part of this deal, concerning Russia’s demands, had not yet been implemented.
Peskov claimed that the recent Crimean Bridge attack could not change Moscow’s stance, which Russian President Vladimir Putin already articulated. At the same time, Peskov added that Russia would resume implementing the Black Sea deal as soon as the Russian part of the grain transaction had been fulfilled.
According to Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s First Deputy Representative to the UN, the decision is final and no more negotiations are expected.
A statement released by the Russian Foreign Ministry said the maritime humanitarian corridor would be closed from 18 July, and the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul would be disbanded.
Russia’s government terminated a deal with Ukraine to allow the safe passage of food grains through the Black Sea after it expired on Monday, a move that is likely to threaten global food security and drive up prices. pic.twitter.com/CxHafou8qX
— Forbes (@Forbes) July 17, 2023
UN, Turkey Brokered Deal
Russia and Ukraine signed the deal for the first time in last July. The UN and Turkey negotiated the pact, permitting Ukraine to ship food and fertilisers to the global market from three Black Sea ports.
Ukraine and Russia are major wheat, barley, and sunflower oil providers globally, exporting a lot of food to developing nations. The deal contributed to a decline in global food prices during the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Thus far, the deal had been renewed thrice, each time for a period of 60 days.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres signaled that Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal means a related pact between the UN and Moscow to help facilitate Russia's grain and fertilizer exports was also terminated https://t.co/3y6QvouoBp pic.twitter.com/oPIlq7dYVc
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 17, 2023
UN Response to Russia’s Withdrawal
UN Secretary-General António Guterres indicated that Russia’s withdrawal meant the related pact to support Russia’s grain and fertiliser exports was also terminated. “Today’s decision by the Russian Federation will strike a blow to people in need everywhere,” he told reporters.
Guterres stated:
“At a time when the production and availability of food is being disrupted by conflict, climate change, energy prices and more, these agreements have helped to reduce food prices by over 23 per cent since March last year [...] Ultimately, participation in these agreements is a choice. But struggling people everywhere and developing countries don’t have a choice.”
“Hundreds of millions of people face hunger, and consumers are confronting a global cost-of-living crisis. They will pay the price,” Guterres remarked, adding that the UN will continue pushing Ukraine and Russia to have unrestricted access to global markets for food and fertiliser.
⚡️Zelensky on Black Sea grain deal collapse: 'We are not afraid.'
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 17, 2023
President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Black Sea grain corridor can continue operating even without Russia's participation. https://t.co/2MdQfeCja8
Ukraine’s Zelensky Proposes Trilateral Format
Following Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with Guterres on Monday.
“This is yet another attempt by Russia to weaponise hunger and destabilise the global food market,” Zelensky said. The Ukrainian president claimed that by making such a decision, Russia “has endangered the lives of 400 million people in many countries that depend on Ukrainian food exports. The most critical situation is in such countries of Africa and Asia.”
Zelensky also stated that he sent official letters to Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan proposing the continuation of the Black Sea Grain deal or “its analogue in a trilateral format — as it is best. Ukraine, the UN and Türkiye can jointly ensure the operation of the food corridor and the inspection of vessels.”
Impact on Global Food Security
The Black Sea Grain Initiative was critical for stabilising global food prices and assisting developing countries relying on Ukrainian exports. The Russia-Ukraine War’s impact on global food markets was immediate and severe, particularly because Ukraine is a key grain exporter to the World Food Programme (WFP).
Food insecurity is expected to rise further, placing additional pressure on the already overburdened humanitarian relief system, which deals with record displacement and increased hunger while facing significant funding shortages.
Parts of Africa and the Middle East would likely bear the brunt of Russia’s decision due to their dependency on wheat from the two warring countries. Russia and Ukraine contribute an estimated 80% of East Africa’s gain supply. According to the International Rescue Committee, more than 50 million people in the region are experiencing “crisis-level” hunger.
The International Rescue Committee’s (IRC) emergency director in East Africa, Shashwat Saraf, said the impact would be dramatic in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, which have been experiencing the worst drought in decades in the Horn of Africa.
Before the agreement, nations in the Middle East, such as Yemen, Lebanon, and Egypt, had wheat shortages, causing the price of essential bread items to soar.
IRC President David Miliband warned in a statement, “Any disruption to the global food supplies at a time of heightened need could have devastating consequences.”
“The Black Sea deal is absolutely critical for the food security of a number of countries,” said Simon Evenett, professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland, adding that its loss would exacerbate problems for those facing high debt levels and climate fallout.
Response from Western Countries
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg slammed Russia’s action on Monday, saying that it occurred “despite the efforts” of Turkey and the UN.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused Russia of “continued weaponisation of food”, causing harm to millions of vulnerable people worldwide. The US urged all pact parties to resume talks and extend the agreement. Additionally, Germany urged Russia to extend the grain agreement indefinitely.
The White House urged Russia to reverse its decision to halt participation in the year-old UN-brokered deal that lets Ukraine export grain through the Black Sea https://t.co/yyOzvqO1AB pic.twitter.com/ifcadN5r6S
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 18, 2023
Russia’s actions were deemed “cynical” by the EU. According to Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, the EU will continue to provide food from Ukraine to global markets.
UK’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly also denounced the Kremlin’s action. Cleverly tweeted, “Putin is using food as a weapon,” emphasising that this choice “hurts the world’s poorest.”
In a tweet, Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau declared it is “nothing less than an act of economic aggression against the states of the Global South which are most dependent on Ukrainian grain.”
Meanwhile, Erdoğan indicated that Ankara tried until the last moment to safeguard the grain agreement. In August, the Turkish president intends to discuss the deal with his Russian counterpart over the phone and in person.