In a stark warning, the Lithuanian intelligence agency revealed that Russia possesses sufficient resources to maintain the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, at the same intensity level seen to date, for an additional two years.
Overview
On Thursday, Lithuania’s Intelligence Chief Col. Elegijus Paulavicius presented the agency’s annual assessment report on national security threats to Lithuania. The report cited that under President Vladimir Putin’s leadership, Russia has become “increasingly totalitarian.” It said that Ukraine undermines the economic and political capacity of Russia.
Lithuania’s most prominent factor in national security is the “Russian-Belarusian war in Ukraine,” the report stated, adding that even though the war in Ukraine has weakened Russian forces near Lithuania, the danger has not been diminished.
It also noted that Russia aims for ‘military domination’ in regions regained by NATO near Ukraine’s eastern borders.
Russia’ Intentions and Belarus’ Role
According to the report, Putin has a “long-term vision: rebuilding the power of Russia that is kin to the Soviet Union.” It highlighted that despite the sanctions and losses inflicted on the Russian military, Moscow’s ability to fund and build armed forces remains unharmed.
Moreover, the report affirmed that Belarus is part of the Russian aggression and has allowed Russian forces to use its territory for military operations. The possibility of Russia using Belarus as the launch pad for its military would increase the uncertainty in the security of the neighbouring regions, the document stated.
The assessment report also indicates that Russian intelligence services are not simply interested in the “classified information” available to the state institutions but also “open source information.” The Kremlin turns to “pro-kremlin radicals” to demonstrate to the West that “international isolation of Russia is melting down” and justify their aggression in Ukraine.
China Threat
Moreover, the report claimed that cyber threats to Lithuania from Russia and China have remained strong and will only intensify with time. Countries assisting Ukraine have been under constant cyber-attacks. The intelligence agency stated, “Their priority remains a continuous long-term collection of information related to the Lithuanian internal and foreign affairs.”
It also discussed the threats related to China, warning that Beijing has been supporting Moscow diplomatically and helping ease the impact of sanctions imposed by the West.
Part of China’s behaviour has to do with its strained relations with Taiwan and the West, the report noted, saying that Beijing seeks to counter the West by supporting the Kremlin and is “ready to cut through the red lines.” The aggressive behaviour will only intensify, but there are fewer chances of military invasion, it said.
Russia Has Enough Resources to Continue Ukraine War for Another 2 Years, Warns Lithuania
According to Lithuanian intelligence, Russian President Vladimir Putin has a long-term vision to rebuild the power of Russia similar to that of the Soviet Union.
March 10, 2023
IMAGE SOURCE: VADIM GHIRDA/APPeople walk by an apartment building destroyed during fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces in Borodyanka, Ukraine, on 5 April 2022.