For the past year, governments and societies have been fighting an invisible adversary that continues to wreak havoc across the globe even today. COVID-19 has infected more than 90 million people worldwide, and killed over two million, showing its catastrophic reach and impact. Amidst the chaos and panic brought on by the deadly disease itself, the pandemic has also given rise to an ‘infodemic’ filled with narratives and counter-narratives about not only the origins of the virus, but also regarding states that are considered inherently best suited to combatting it.
To this end, the Lowy Institute has published an interactive study looking at 100 countries and their responses to the pandemic, to determine whether significant variations exist between different types of states in their handling of the crisis. States were broadly categorized by region, political systems, population size, and economic development to explore linkages between these factors and the countries’ national outcomes. The authors note here that systemic factors alone cannot fully account for the differences observed, but the results “point to some of the strengths and vulnerabilities stemming from the way different countries are set up to deal with a public policy challenge of this scale”. Here are some quick key findings:
Regions
Asia-Pacific: Despite being first reported in China, countries in the Asia-Pacific were on average found to be most successful at containing the pandemic.
Europe: Though the spread of the virus initially rapidly overwhelmed Europe, the continent showed the greatest improvement over time of any region, before succumbing to a second, more severe, wave of the pandemic in the final months of 2020, which only accelerated due to more open borders between neighbouring countries.
Americas: The region was the worst affected globally, with the spread of the virus still rapidly accelerating.
Middle East and Africa: Many countries in the region managed to halt the initial progress of the pandemic by imposing robust preventative measures. However, the situation eventually worsened, before stabilising again in the second half of 2020.
Political Systems
Differences in political systems between nations had less of an impact on outcomes than often assumed or publicised. On average, countries with authoritarian models had no prolonged advantage in suppressing the virus. Democracies, like the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK), found marginally more success than other forms of government. Hybrid regimes, like in Ukraine and Bolivia, appeared least able to meet the challenge.
Population Size
Smaller countries (with populations of fewer than 10 million people) proved more able than the majority of their larger counterparts in handling the health emergency for most of 2020. The openness and higher levels of porosity of internal borders in larger countries may have facilitated the spread of the virus within those with bigger populations.
Economic Development
Despite differences in per capita income and resources available to fight the pandemic, many developing countries were able to handle the initial outbreak, while advanced economies lost their lead at the end of 2020 as they grappled with a second wave of infections. The relatively “low-tech” measures—like social distancing and lockdowns—used to contain the spread of the virus may have created a more level playing field for both groups of nations. However, richer countries’ better access to vaccines will tip the scales in their favour in terms of recovery, leaving poorer states fighting the pandemic longer.
In terms of ranking countries on their response to the pandemic in the 36 weeks following their hundredth confirmed case of the virus, New Zealand came in first, while Brazil was last. Of the 98 countries evaluated on the basis of confirmed cases, confirmed deaths, confirmed cases per million people, confirmed deaths per million people, confirmed cases as a proportion of tests, and tests per thousand people, the United States stood at the 94th spot, while India did slightly better at number 86.
Quick Look: Lowy Institute’s Covid Performance Index
What is the impact of geography, political systems, population size, and economic development on COVID-19 outcomes around the world?
January 29, 2021
SOURCE: LOWY INSTITUTE