The SIPRI Yearbook 2023 has been released, and it shames mankind since we humans can’t get enough of our self-destructive nature. As if Covid hadn't already taken its toll on humanity, the number of armed conflicts worldwide rose in 2022, according to the study. Nuclear proliferation remained a major concern throughout the post-Covid period. As countries' long-term force modernisation and expansion plans advanced, the number of operable nuclear weapons began to climb beginning in 2022. For the first time since 2010, the number of nuclear weapons globally grew in 2022. Anyone interested in understanding the condition of global security should read The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2023. The findings of the yearbook give valuable insights into the patterns driving the world's armed forces and armed conflicts.
According to SIPRI, global military expenditure reached $2.1 trillion in 2022, a 0.7% rise from 2021. The results for 2023 indicate a dramatic surge in worldwide nuclear arsenal followed by ongoing global military spending growth. In a cold war-style headlock with the US, China is the second-largest spender, with a $293 billion military budget in 2022. With a $801 billion military budget, the US is the world’s greatest spender on defence.
China appears to have swiftly modernised its nuclear arsenal, adding 60 warheads in 2022, and is currently the world’s second-largest nuclear power. According to SIPRI, China’s nuclear arsenal grew from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023, and it is anticipated to rise further. “China has started a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal,” said Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). “It is becoming more difficult to reconcile this trend with China’s avowed goal of possessing merely the nuclear capabilities required to safeguard national security,” he added. The report indicates that by the end of the decade, China might have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the US or Russia.
Moreover, the yearbook discusses the global arms trade, a profitable business, with arms sales exceeding $531 billion in 2021. Washington and Moscow are the world’s major arms exporters, accounting for 39% of global arms sales. In 2022, there were 21 active armed conflicts, up from 20 in 2021.
According to SIPRI, the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel continue modernising their nuclear arsenals, with several deploying new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2022. In January 2023, about 9,576 of the worldwide inventory of an estimated 12,512 warheads were in military stocks for potential use — 86 higher than in January 2022.
An estimated 3,844 warheads were deployed with missiles and planes, and around 2,000 — nearly all of which belonged to Russia or the US — were kept on high operational alert, meaning they were attached to missiles or housed at airbases hosting nuclear bombers. Washington and Moscow own about 90% of all nuclear weapons. In addition to stockpiling usable nuclear weapons, the two countries have about 1,000 decommissioned military warheads that they are methodically removing.
Although the UK is not believed to have boosted its nuclear arsenal in 2022, its stockpile is projected to rise in the future as a result of the British government’s 2021 announcement to raise London’s nuclear stockpile from 225 to 260 warheads. In addition, the British government stated that it would no longer publicly publish the number of nuclear weapons, deployed warheads, or deployed missiles. Both the US and the UK declined to divulge information to the public on their nuclear forces in 2022, as they had done in previous years.
Moreover, France continues to build a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile in 2022, as well as renovate and improve current systems. North Korea’s military nuclear project is a critical component of its national security policy. While North Korea had no nuclear test explosions in 2022, it did undertake over 90 missile launches. Some of these missiles, including new intercontinental ballistic missiles, may be capable of delivering nuclear warheads. SIPRI believes that Pyongyang has already constructed roughly 30 warheads and has enough fissile material for 50-70 warheads, both of which are major increases above January 2022 predictions. Israel, which does not officially admit to having nuclear weapons, is likewise said to be modernising its nuclear arsenal.
In 2022, both India and Pakistan looked to be growing their nuclear arsenals, with both countries introducing and continuing to develop new types of nuclear delivery systems. While Pakistan remains the primary target of India’s nuclear deterrence, New Delhi appears to be shifting its focus to longer-range missiles, particularly ones capable of striking targets across China.
The 2023 report demonstrates that global security has continued deteriorating over the previous year. The effects of the Ukrainian conflict may be seen in practically every element of the yearbook’s concerns on weaponry, disarmament, and international security. Nonetheless, it was far from the only significant battle raging in 2022, with intense geopolitical tensions, mistrust, and division brewing well before Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour.
“We are entering one of the most perilous times in human history,” says Dan Smith, Director of SIPRI. “It is critical that the world’s governments find methods to work together to reduce geopolitical tensions, decrease arms races, and deal with the growing implications of environmental collapse and rising global hunger,” Smith notes.
“With communication lines between nuclear-armed competitors closed or hardly functional, the chances of mistake, misunderstanding, or accident are unacceptably high at this moment of heightened geopolitical tension and mistrust,' Smith adds. He also calls for “an urgent need to reestablish nuclear diplomacy and improve international nuclear armaments controls.”
The SIPRI Yearbook 2023 serves as a sobering reminder of the world’s struggles sustaining peace and security. The yearbook also gives vital insights into the patterns affecting the world’s armed forces and armed conflicts. This data may influence policy choices and build conflict prevention and peace promotion strategies.
Nuclear Proliferation, Burgeoning Arms Trade, Increased Warfare: Why the SIPRI 2023 Report is an Eye Opener for Humanity
The 2023 report demonstrates that global security has continued deteriorating over the previous year.
July 6, 2023
IMAGE SOURCE: KCNANorth Korea launching a new type of Hwasong-18 Intercontinental ballistic missile using solid fuel, April 2023