Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi will skip the India-Russia Annual Summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin to be held in Moscow this year due to Russia’s escalating threats to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
According to sources familiar with the matter, ties between the two countries remain strong, but India does not think it would be beneficial to tout their friendship with Russia owing to the current geopolitical climate. “It won’t be this year,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed.
An unnamed Russian official revealed to Bloomberg that India had made its position clear during Modi’s meeting with Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in September, when the Indian leader said, “I know that today’s era is not of war,” in a reference to the Ukraine war.
Putin was in New Delhi last December for the 21st India-Russia annual summit.
— Gurbaksh Singh Chahal (@gchahal) December 10, 2022
The foreign ministry of India and the Russian embassy in New Delhi have not confirmed the report.
India and Russia cancelled the summit for the first time in 20 years in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic; this year marks the second such instance.
This forum has been an annual occurrence since both sides signed the “Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership” in 2000. In 2010, India and Russia’s bilateral ties were upgraded to a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.” It is considered the “highest institutionalised dialogue mechanism” in their partnership.
Following the Eurasian Economic Council meeting in Bishkek on Friday, Putin told reporters that he is “thinking” about formally adopting a United States (US)-like pre-emptive strike strategy. His comments were in sharp contrast to his declaration just three days earlier, wherein he stated that Russia will not resort to a first-use policy “under any circumstances.”
“We have not gone crazy, we are aware of what nuclear weapons are. We have these means, and they are in a more advanced and more modern form than any other nuclear country,” Putin said on Wednesday, emphasising that these are a “natural deterrent, not provoking to the expansion of conflicts.”
Though he admitted that “such a threat is growing,” he said the possibility of a nuclear attack on Russian territory is “very limited.” “We consider weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons, it is all tuned around the so-called retaliatory strike, that is, when we are struck, we strike back,” Putin underscored.
On Friday, however, Putin noted that Washington is “developing a disarming strike system” to target the enemy’s command systems.
“It was also supposed to deliver this preventive disarming strike with the help of hypersonic systems, but so far there are none in the States, but we have. Therefore, if we are talking about this disarming strike, then perhaps we should think about adopting the achievements of our American partners and their ideas for ensuring our security,” he affirmed, adding, “No one was shy when talking about it out loud in previous times and years. This is the first.”
He pointed out tha unlike the US, Russia only has a retaliatory strike enshrined in its strategy, which serves as a “serious deterrent.”
“But if a potential adversary believes that it is possible to use the theory of a preventive strike, but we do not, then this still makes us think about the threats that such ideas pose to us in the field of defence of other countries,” Putin remarked.
India isn’t pleased with Russia. https://t.co/5HXuISzxzK
— Derek J. Grossman (@DerekJGrossman) December 9, 2022
An anonymous US official described Putin’s comments as “sabre-rattling” and another warning of Russia potentially deploying a tactical nuclear weapon. The official also pointed out that Russia’s strategy framework does have the first-policy use of a nuclear weapon in response to a large-scale military aggression.
Russia has frequently threatened Ukraine with nuclear warfare. As far back as last December, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov had raised alarms over North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) weapons deployment, warning that Russia is ready to deploy its intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in retaliation.
In April, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest aides, Dmitry Medvedev, threatened to deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles to the Kaliningrad exclave located between Poland and Lithuania if Sweden and Finland joined NATO.
Similarly, in September, Russian State Duma Committee chair on International Affairs and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) Leonid Slutsky called Ukraine’s draft of legally-binding international security guarantees to defend itself against Russia an “escalation” and threatened the Western countries with nuclear warfare.
A month later, Moscow further escalated the nuclear threat and warned the West of “disastrous consequences” after Ukrainian troops made significant inroads in southern Kherson. In fact, last month, the United Kingdom (UK) Ministry of Defence Intelligence claimed that Russia has deployed Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles to Belarus’ Machulishchi Airfield in a “message to the West.”
Contrasting leaks on India-Russia summit story:
— Sadanand Dhume (@dhume) December 10, 2022
Leak 1: Modi will skip summit because he’s upset by Putin’s threat to use nukes.
Leak 2: Cancellation has nothing to do with Putin’s threats.
[India wants the West to believe #1 and Russia to believe #2.] https://t.co/57Eho3Wtsh
Nevertheless, India has managed to maintain a strong relationship with Russia and even increased its trade by buying discounted Russian oil despite the West warning New Delhi of “consequences.”
In fact, last month, Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri reiterated that there is no “moral conflict” with importing discounted Russian oil, as limiting energy imports would further increase domestic fuel prices.
India has faced repeated warnings of “significant consequences,” particularly from the US, over its decision to purchase Russian oil. US President Joe Biden, too, singled out India as the only Quad ally with a “shaky” response to the Ukraine crisis. In fact, Ukraine, too, has said each barrel India purchases has a “good portion of Ukrainian blood in it.” However, India has stood firm on its ability to take independent decisions as a sovereign nation.
Puri also pushed back against Western criticism of OPEC+’s recent decision to cut oil production by two million barrels per day (bpd) as a “sovereign” one. Speaking to Reuters in October, he said, “It is entirely up to the producers to determine how much they want to produce and what price they want to sell.” However, he said the alliance must recognise “the impact of their decisions.”
Despite these differences, however, the Indian petroleum minister underscored that India remains in “healthy” discussions with its Western partners.
Indian External Affairs (EAM) Minister S. Jaishankar has said Russian oil imports have “worked to [India’s] advantage” and that the government “would like to keep that going.” The EAM has also underscored that the reason for this increased dependence on Russia is that traditional suppliers from the Middle East have redirected supplies to Europe. As a result, it was reported last month that Russia has overtaken Iraq and Saudi Arabia last month to become India’s top supplier of crude oil.
Jaishankar has stressed India turned to Russian energy in light of heavy “stress on the energy markets,” which he said has been caused by several factors, hinting at the Ukraine-Russia war and OPEC+’s recent decision to cut oil production by two million barrels per day. In this regard, he reiterated that New Delhi has a “fundamental obligation” to secure the “most advantageous” oil deal for Indian consumers, particularly in light of its citizens’ relatively low average incomes.
Additionally, in October, BrahMos Aerospace, a joint venture by India and Russia to produce nuclear-capable supersonic surface-to-surface cruise missiles, said it aims to secure $5 billion worth of export orders by 2025, as Indian officials were already in talks with Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia for new orders, thereby single-handedly achieving PM Modi’s target for the entire defence industry.
India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation owns 50.5% of the joint venture, while Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya holds the remaining 49.5%.
Speaking at the Defence Expo 2022 meeting in Gandhinagar, BrahMos Chief Atul Rane noted that the development of BrahMos Next Generation missiles is well underway as well, with the first trial scheduled for mid-2024. Moscow and New Delhi are also looking to develop other missile variants to induct into India’s defence.
In April, Russia, too, applauded India’s neutral stand on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and also expressed its willingness to accept India as a mediator to bring an end to the conflict.
India has hinted at its displeasure with Russia’s actions and has emphasised on the need to respect the “territorial integrity and sovereignty” of all countries. However, it continues to refrain from making any direct references to its longtime ally, which it relies on for 60-70% of its military equipment.
In October, India abstained from a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) vote to condemn Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian territories in light of the “totality of the evolving situation,” saying it remains opposed to the “escalation of rhetoric and tensions,” despite condemning the hostilities and casualties.
It was India’s ninth abstention from a UN vote against Russia.
In February, it abstained from a UNSC vote calling on Russia to end its military invasion of Ukraine.
In March, India appeared to take one further step towards denouncing Russia’s actions in Ukraine by joining 12 other countries in abstaining from a UNSC resolution introduced by Russia on the humanitarian crisis in the war-torn eastern European nation.
Likewise, in April, it abstained from a vote calling for Russia’s suspension from the UN Human Rights Council.
At the same time, however, India has indicated that the use of nuclear weapons represents a red line. In a conversation with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu last month, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said the “nuclear option should not be resorted to by any side as the prospect of the usage of nuclear or radiological weapons goes against the basic tenets of humanity.”