On Monday, during an annual hearing on the country’s three spy agencies, German intelligence officials warned the government against “naivety” on the threat of a “globally ascendant autocratic China,” which uses “economic levers” to spread “Chinese ideas” and push partners to align with its “political views.”
On Monday, Federal Intelligence Service (BND) President Bruno Kahl spoke of the danger posed by Chinese involvement in infrastructure projects, such as the currently halted proposal to give it a 35% stake in COSCO’s Hamburg container terminal.
He said, “A port, for example, is the type of critical infrastructure that you have to examine very carefully before you enter into a commitment.”
Kahl revealed that China has been misusing its partners’ expertise by orchestrating cyber-attacks to facilitate an “exodus of knowledge” from the German science and business industries to further its aim of becoming the world’s foremost technological power by 2049, when the People’s Republic of China celebrates its centenary.
Echoing Kahl’s warnings, Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) President Thomas Haldenwang asserted that a situation where China can “influence political events in Germany” must be avoided at all costs.
Meanwhile, Military Counterintelligence (MAD) President Martine Rosenberg highlighted that China has been conducting “sophisticated spying operations” against the German armed forces for several years now.
At the same hearing, the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency says China poses a far more significant long-term threat than Russia: “Russia is the storm, China is climate change”
— Noah Barkin 🇺🇦 (@noahbarkin) October 18, 2022
In this regard, Kahl criticised the government for not paying heed to the three agencies’ advice and “brushing off intelligence services’ warnings as scaremongering and grandstanding.” He questioned the government’s decision to expand ties with China, saying there is “certainly room for improvement.”
Speaking about the Russia-Ukraine war’s impact on energy security, the trio said they were not surprised, as they had forewarned the government about Germany’s excessive dependence on Russian gas on several occasions.
To this end, they cautioned against making the same mistake with China. Highlighting that China could pose an even bigger threat than Russia, BfV President Haldenwang said, “If Russia is a storm, China is climate change.”
The spy agencies’ warnings come amid a long-standing debate among politicians to reduce Germany’s dependency on China, the country’s top trading partner. German businesses continue to invest in China despite reports of Chinese companies stealing technology and expertise from their partners. In fact, just last week, Volkswagen announced a $2.3 billion joint venture with Chinese Horizon Robotics.
At the 13th German Mechanical Engineering Summit in Berlin on Tuesday, Scholz reiterated the importance of globalization for realizing prosperity and opposed decoupling from countries, including China. pic.twitter.com/CtcmHki1hh
— Zhang Heqing张和清 (@zhang_heqing) October 12, 2022
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has taken note of such warnings and has advised against “one-sided economic dependence,” noting that this could open Germany up to “political blackmail”, as seen with Russia.
On Tuesday she said, “We must ensure that we don’t make such a mistake again, and that means that we will have to take account of this more strongly in our policy toward China.”
Tensions between Germany and China have increased in recent months over Berlin’s decision to criticise Beijing’s human rights record, particularly in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Xinjiang.
Bilateral ties have become further strained after the end of now-former Angela Merkel’s 16-year tenure last year, when she was replaced by Olaf Scholz.
During the last few days of her tenure, Merkel warned against severing ties with China during her final days in office. She was known for her soft stance on China, particularly concerning human rights violations and its coercive manoeuvres in the Indo-Pacific. During her tenure, China became Germany’s top trading partner (in 2016).
Volkswagen appears to be increasing its bets in China even at a time of heightened tensions with the US on technology. If they were unsure of getting the chips they'll need for their ICE cars and EVs, you'd think they would be holding back. But they're not. That tells us a lot.
— Brian Tycangco 鄭彥渊 (@BrianTycangco) October 17, 2022
Scholz, on the other hand, has approached China with caution. In fact, he raised eyebrows after choosing Japan instead of China as the destination for his maiden visit to Asia as chancellor. Notably, he said while in Japan that he is seeking closer ties with Indo-Pacific countries that “share democratic values.”
Nevertheless, Scholz has opposed the United States-led efforts to “de-couple” from China.
He said last week, “We don’t need to decouple ourselves from a few countries; we must continue to do business with individual countries — and I say explicitly, also business with China.” However, he acknowledged the need to diversify the country’s trade profile by expanding ties with countries across Asia, Africa, and South America.
Scholz is scheduled to visit Beijing from 3 to 4 November, which will make him the first G7 head of state to visit China since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. A business delegation will accompany him on the visit.