The US and China are preparing to hold a rare discussion on nuclear arms control, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Wednesday.
Overview
The meeting has been scheduled for Monday and is the first such talks between the two powers since the Obama Administration. According to US officials, the conversation will focus on ways to reduce the risk of miscalculation.
The discussion is not the beginning of formal negotiations to set limits to each side’s nuclear forces, as the US has long done with Russia. Instead, the meeting will provide Washington with an opportunity to probe Beijing on the ambitious buildup of its nuclear arsenal, which for decades has been much smaller than those of the US and Russia.
“The hope is if this exchange can be maintained and can happen regularly in the future, that might open up opportunities for more substantive conversations,” Tong Zhao of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told WSJ.
China’s Nuclear Buildup
The news of the meeting between the two superpowers comes in the wake of the release of a Pentagon report, which revealed that China has already amassed more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, and its arsenal is expected to comprise more than 1,000 by 2030.
In its annual report on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), called the China Military Power Report 2023, the Pentagon revealed last month that China has been “expanding the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms while investing in and constructing the infrastructure necessary to support further expansion of its nuclear forces.”
In addition, the PLA will continue to chase its goal of modernisation, which will be “basically complete” by 2035, serving as “an important milestone on the road to (Chinese President) Xi’s goal of a “world class” military by 2049.”
Similarly, in its 2023 yearbook, which was released in June, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) predicted that the size of China’s nuclear arsenal will continue to grow. The report found that for the first time since 2010, the number of nuclear weapons globally grew in 2022.
Parallel Threat from Russia
At the same time, the Biden Administration is trying to include Russia in separate arms-control talks after Moscow stepped back from the New START treaty while still observing its limits on warheads.
As part of its efforts, Washington has sent Moscow a confidential document outlining ideas on managing current nuclear risks after that agreement expires in February 2026.
The New START treaty restricts both nations from deploying more than 1,550 nuclear warheads on delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers. As per the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Russia has about 5,977 nuclear warheads, of which 1,588 are deployed, whereas the US has 5,550, with 3,800 being active.
It is the only treaty to regulate the largest nuclear arsenals in the world, allowing on-site inspections in both countries.