As American and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) troops continue to withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban has mounted numerous offensives aimed at capturing territory from the Afghan government. As per reports, the Taliban strategy has largely worked, with the group having captured over 50 districts and claiming control of almost 85% of the country. This sudden resurgence of the Taliban has led to serious security concerns in neighbouring countries over a possible toppling of the Kabul government led by President Ashraf Ghani. Many have argued that such a situation could result in a civil war, pulling the region into further violence and undoing decades of painstaking progress.
All of Afghanistan’s neighbours, except Turkmenistan, are either permanent or observing members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This makes the grouping a key player in maintaining regional security and preventing Afghanistan from descending into further lawlessness. Working towards this end is also in the interest of all member states of the SCO, which have major political, economic, and security stakes in the country.
For instance, China fears that violence and instability in Afghanistan could negatively impact its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in the region, such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which Beijing has sought to expand into Afghanistan. However, the recent momentum in favour of the Taliban could end up severely denting the progress made on CPEC. Just last week, nine Chinese engineers working on a CPEC project were killed in a terrorist attack, raising concerns that Taliban gains are emboldening local militant organisations to carry out attacks. China is also worried that violence in Afghanistan could spill over into its Xinjiang province that borders the country.
Likewise, Central Asian members of the SCO have been desperately trying to contain the violence from spreading into their borders. Since June, thousands of Afghan troops have been seeking refuge in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan after fleeing major Taliban attacks on their posts. The Taliban has also launched offensives to capture several border crossings with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Advances made by the fundamentalist group have led these Central Asian nations to fortify their borders and seek external support in managing the crisis.
India, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia are the other SCO members with major stakes in Afghanistan. India has invested over $3 billion in development projects in Afghanistan, including roads, dams, hospitals, and schools, and has provided military support and training to Afghan forces. Russia, meanwhile, has maintained high-level contacts with the Taliban and has tried to bring the militant group and the Afghan government to the negotiating table on numerous occasions. The deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and Central Asia could pose a major challenge to Russian interests in Central Asia, including energy and infrastructure projects. In fact, the Secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, said that Afghanistan is in a state of “degradation” as US troops withdraw, and warned that this would “contribute to the increase in the terrorist activity of ISIS and Al Qaeda.” Pakistan and Iran have also expressed similar concerns about the situation in neighbouring Afghanistan, and have sought to deepen their security cooperation after the US withdraws.
Given that all SCO members could be affected by the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, it is not surprising that foreign ministers of all SCO countries held a meeting under the ‘SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group’ on July 14. The group stated that it is interested in the development of a “peaceful, stable, and prosperous” Afghanistan, and condemned the “violence and terror attacks,” in reference to the Taliban’s onslaught. It further added that it seeks to strengthen regional stability, and develop relations between SCO members and Afghanistan, as well as deepen cooperation in the fields of politics, security, and the economy.
However, it is not clear how the SCO plans to achieve their stated aims. So far, the grouping has preferred to remain on the sidelines of the conflict, especially when the US was deeply involved in Afghanistan. Bilateral ties between SCO members and Afghanistan have not led to greater SCO involvement. Relations between the grouping and Afghanistan have been largely limited to the annual Afghan Contact Group meeting and the occasional statement expressing support for peace and stability in Afghanistan. In fact, the country is not a full member of the SCO, despite applying for membership in 2015. Against this backdrop, the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan is an opportunity for the SCO to fill the security void that will follow.
A starting point for the SCO could be the five-point proposal made by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the ‘SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group’ meeting in Dushanbe last week. Firstly, Wang urged the US to “honour its commitment” to Afghanistan by being “vigilant against any attempt to undermine regional security and stability through the chaos in Afghanistan.” Secondly, he called on the SCO to “make every effort” to fight the “three forces” of terrorism, separatism, and extremism from spreading into the “surrounding areas of Afghanistan.” In this regard, the Chinese FM calls for a greater role of the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) and stepping up counter-terrorism cooperation with Afghanistan. Thirdly, he encouraged all SCO member states to “leverage their respective advantages to make joint efforts for mediation.” The FM also said that it was the duty of the SCO to “actively strengthen multilateral coordination” with regards to Afghanistan and “actively take part” in such mechanisms. Finally, Wang proposed the reconstruction of Afghanistan through existing mechanisms to support Afghanistan in “enhancing its capacity for independent development and achieving genuine and sustainable development.”
While the SCO should act upon these points, they would most likely only materialise in the long term. As an immediate measure, the SCO should grant full membership to Afghanistan to show that it is truly committed to maintaining regional stability. Full membership would make Kabul a direct military partner of the SCO and allow it to cooperate in intelligence-sharing and counter-terrorism operations with other members. Afghanistan could also use the grouping’s diplomatic clout and count on the SCO’s backing in negotiations with the Taliban.
Ultimately, a lot will depend on what course the SCO takes. The organisation could definitely learn from the mistakes made by the US over the last 20 years and chart its way forward. All things considered, the SCO has a great opportunity to step up its efforts in Afghanistan and prevent instability from taking root in the region.
Why the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Needs to Step Up its Efforts in Afghanistan
As US troops depart from Afghanistan, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization should increase its engagement with Afghanistan and actively contribute towards the maintenance of regional stability.
July 21, 2021
SOURCE: RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS AND INFORMATION SERVICE