The ballot counting continues but the race is over. While Donald Trump has seemingly lost the election—mainly on account of his reckless mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, an issue that President-elect Joe Biden is expected to take a strong stance on—it remains to be seen what foreign policy changes will be enacted under the incoming Biden administration. One particular area of governance that remains unclear is how Biden will approach the Israel-Palestine conflict, especially after the wholesale changes made under Trump.
Be it the various normalization deals with countries across the Middle East, the US’ decision to relocate its embassy to Jerusalem, or the Trump administration’s tacit acceptance of Israel’s annexation of Palestinian land, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found a steadfast ally in Donald Trump. The gains Israel made under Trump’s rule was underscored by Netanyahu’s addendum to congratulatory message for Biden and Kamala Harris, which was supported with a message of thanks for Trump. Interestingly, Netanyahu’s cover photo on his Twitter account also still carries a photograph of himself and Trump. As January and the inauguration of the Biden administration nears, both Israel and Palestine await nervously to see whether US-Israel ties will continue along the same trajectory paved by Trump.
Congratulations @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris. Joe, we’ve had a long & warm personal relationship for nearly 40 years, and I know you as a great friend of Israel. I look forward to working with both of you to further strengthen the special alliance between the US and Israel.
— Benjamin Netanyahu (@netanyahu) November 8, 2020
Thank you @realDonaldTrump for the friendship you have shown the state of Israel and me personally, for recognizing Jerusalem and the Golan, for standing up to Iran, for the historic peace accords and for bringing the American-Israeli alliance to unprecedented heights.
— Benjamin Netanyahu (@netanyahu) November 8, 2020
Trump, who is a loyal ally of Israel, has never attempted to hide his preference for Israel over Palestine, and allowed for the US ally to make major unprecedented gains under his presidency. In December 2017, Trump extended official recognition to Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, following which, in May 2018, a new US Embassy was unveiled in the city. In 2019, Trump signed a presidential proclamation that affirmed the US’ official recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, while US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo signed a declaration that the “establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not per se inconsistent with international law.” Pompeo also recently announced that Israeli citizens born in Jerusalem could now elect to list their place of birth as “Israel” in US consular documents. In the recent past, and as a huge blow to the cause of Palestine, the Trump administration also brokered the historic Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Sudan, furthering Israel’s acceptance by Arab nations.
On the other hand, the Palestinians have had the worst run under Trump’s presidency. Despite criticism from the UN, Israel’s demolitions of Palestinian properties in the West Bank and East Jerusalem have surpassed previous records, with almost 741 Palestinians losing their homes between January and September 2020. Therefore, while they are wary, Palestinian authorities are no doubt relieved at the thought of Trump leaving office.
“I congratulate President-elect Joe Biden on his victory as President of the United States of America for the coming period, and I congratulate his elected Vice President Kamala Harris,” Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the State of Palestine, said in a statement issued from his office in Ramallah, West Bank. Abbas’ statement is reflective of the hope for a resumption of ties between the US and Palestine in the near future.
Nevertheless, although Palestinians have welcomed Trump’s exit from the White House, they remain cautious of Biden’s intentions. Three years ago, Abbas cut off contact with the White House, accusing President Donald Trump of pro-Israel bias. However, Palestinians expect Biden to implement a similarly lopsided pro-Israel US foreign policy. Nevertheless, they have taken refuge in the fact that he will at least not be as threatening to their sovereignty as Trump has been.
“We don’t expect miraculous transformation, but at least we expect the dangerous destructive policies of Trump to totally stop,” said Hanan Ashrawi, a member of the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s Executive Committee. Being a self-proclaimed Zionist, Biden is expected to consider neither cutting off defence aid to Israel nor reversing Trump’s decision to move the embassy. He has also been quiet on the future of refugees and their right to return to their original homeland.
“Moving the embassy when we did without the conditions having been met was short-sighted and frivolous,” the former vice president said. “But now that is done, I would not move the embassy back to Tel Aviv.” In a move aimed to restore some balance to the multilateral relationship, Biden also reportedly said he would reopen the US consulate in occupied East Jerusalem “to engage the Palestinians”.
Biden’s pro-Israel position has been evident since he served as vice president under the Obama administration. He helped ensure firm support for Israel’s security and was a key advocate in securing support for weapons technologies like the Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow 3 anti-rocket and missile defence systems. Additionally, Biden also helped shape the unprecedented $38 billion, 10-year, memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Israel signed towards the end of Obama’s leadership, which was the largest such military aid package in US history.
In this regard, Biden has promised that he would not touch US aid to Israel and would preserve the 2016 MOU. “I’m not going to place conditions on security assistance, given the serious threats that Israelis face,” he has said, adding, “This would be, I think, irresponsible.” Furthermore, Biden also said that he would honour the Taylor Force Act, legislation passed in 2018 and signed into law by Trump that withholds portions of American aid to the Palestinians unless it ceases to issue payments to the families of terrorists who murder Israelis.
Given that there is unlikely to be a marked shift in US foreign policy on Israel, the country’s stock market has responded positively to Biden’s win. Both the blue-chip Tel Aviv 35 index and the broader TA-125 were up about 0.3% in morning trade on the Monday following the announcement of Biden’s predicted victory. Nevertheless, the Israeli government should now prepare for the return of a more measured US approach that ensures, among other things, greater understanding for Palestinian viewpoints and a renewed push for compromise with Iran. Committed to restoring traditional US alliances that have come undone under Trump, a new Democratic administration will be more motivated to abide by international consensus.
Biden had said that his first task in relation to the Israel-Palestine conflict will be to reverse Trump’s controversial policies and curb damage already caused in the region. For instance, he has said that he would oppose Israel’s annexations in the West Bank, resume funding to humanitarian organizations working with Palestinians, and focus on a two-state solution.
In a bid to pressure Palestine to engage in peace talks with Israel before Trump brokered the Abraham Accord, the US ceased funding to United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), whose role had been to provide basic social services to around five million Palestinian refugees in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. It also withdrew all funds from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) assistance to Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza. Biden, on the other hand, has promised to reinstate funding for Palestine through the UNRWA and USAID.
Likewise, in a Zoom teleconference, the former vice president also pledged to restore diplomatic ties with the Palestinian Authority and push both sides toward a two-state solution, “I do not support annexation,” Biden told the conference. “I’m going to reverse the Trump administration’s steps that I think significantly undercut the prospects of peace.”
One cannot, however, make the mistake of assuming that the Biden presidency will be a continuation of the policies enacted under Barack Obama. In contrast to the Obama administration, the Biden administration is not expected to prioritize the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Biden’s aides have no illusions when it comes to the chances for a breakthrough in negotiations on the issue at the present, and they do not intend to launch a peace plan of their own.
But the fact remains that, no matter how doubtfully Palestinians view Biden, the destruction that a second Trump term could have caused to them and their cause was unimaginable. Even though Palestinian expectations of progress remain low from Biden, they can at least expect him to roll back some of Trump’s pro-Israel policies that have been devastating to the sovereignty of Palestine.
As Biden walks the tightrope between pursuing flourishing relations with Israel and also being mindful of Palestine’s need for guaranteed sovereignty, he is of the opinion that Israel must recognize the legitimacy of Palestinians’ aspirations for statehood. “Both sides should work to provide more relief to the people of Gaza while working to weaken, and ultimately replace, Hamas. And Arab states should take more steps toward normalization with Israel and increase their financial and diplomatic support for building Palestinian institutions.” Biden said in an interview of presidential candidates with CFR last August.
However, despite all the speculation of his diplomatic moves, foreign policy is expected to take a backseat in the initial couple months of 2021 as the US continues to grapple with rising cases of COVID-19. The newly elected President will first and foremost have to focus almost entirely on conquering the pandemic, rebuilding the economy and restoring millions of lost jobs. Once the US and indeed the world eventually emerges from the ongoing pandemic, the focus is likely to shift to secondary goals, at which time the issue of Israel-Palestine conflict is likely to become a salient talking point once again. At that time, one expects that Biden will maintain several structural adjustments made by Trump, but seek to undo some of the more harmful effects of his policies, particularly with regards to annexation, funding, and support for a two-state solution.