The expanding “India-Out” campaign in the Maldives is becoming a cause for concern for India and the island nation’s government. For India, maintaining its relationship with the Maldives is critical for its strategic positioning in the Indo-Pacific and to deter China from cementing itself as the country’s principal ally. The burgeoning anti-India sentiment has been linked to several root causes surrounding India’s increased engagement with the Maldives. However, the key factor driving this campaign is not the foreign policy decisions made by the incumbent government but rather a politically motivated move to undermine the rule of President Mohamed Ibrahim Solih.
India and the Maldives have been age-old allies. After a short hiatus in their flourishing diplomatic friendship caused by the appointment of pro-China premier Abdul Yameen, the two have “reset” their relations. Since Mohamed Ibrahim Solih from the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) took control in 2018, India has enhanced its partnership with the Maldives and launched several infrastructure and defence projects. Not only has India funded the development of hospitals, housing facilities, and sports complexes, it has also provided aid to the Maldives through its Neighbourhood First Policy. Hence, gathering support for growing bilateral ties within political circles and among the Maldivian citizenry is critical for both governments.
These goals, however, are threatened by the recent “India-Out” campaign. A barrage of local media and social media posts supporting the campaign called for the Indian military to leave the island nation. In response, the Indian High Commission in the Maldives raised concern with the country’s foreign ministry, as the posts were growing increasingly “motivated, malicious, and personal,” thereby posing a risk to Indian diplomats in the country. Consequently, they urged the Maldivian authorities to take strict action and enhance the security at the High Commission. In addition, they cited the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations to remind them of their duty to ensure the safety and security of diplomats. As a result, the Maldivian authorities published a strong statement urging media houses to refrain from disrespecting foreign diplomats and endangering bilateral relations with critical allies.
The growing anti-India sentiment was first highlighted last August, when a building housing the office of the State Bank of India in the capital city, Male, was torched. Soon after, a man seeking to purchase an RDX bomb on Twitter to attack the Indian High Commission was arrested. However, the origins of the movement can be traced long before thes incidents. While Maldivian authorities have blamed “Islamists” for orchestrating the campaign, the real reason behind the “India-Out” movement is centred around domestic political ambitions to oust President Solih.
In 2013, after the appointment of pro-China Abdul Yameen as the country’s President, a narrative accusing India of unravelling a “nefarious plot” to take control over the Indo-Pacific was floated. The Yameen administration cited these concerns to justify its pro-China policy. For instance, in 2010 and 2015, India gifted two Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters to help local authorities enhance maritime weather surveillance, conduct search and rescue operations, and airlift patients between islands. Despite several reassurances from the Indian side that the helicopters were entirely under the control of Maldivian authorities, Yameen called for them to be returned in 2016, a request that was denied by India. Eventually, the order was revoked after Solih took control over the government, paving the way for Yameen and his allies to criticise the new president for ceding sovereignty. This has resulted in scepticism among citizens, who now perceive any infrastructural and foreign policy collaborations between the two governments as a military manoeuvre by India.
The Maldives’ opposition has been exploiting these inherent fears of occupation. The anti-India campaign thus stems from the political motives of the Progressive Congress, an opposition coalition that brings together the Progressive Party of Maldives and the People’s National Congress. In order to expand their support ahead of national elections that are scheduled to be held in two years, capitalising on anti-India sentiment is merely a means to polarise voters and successfully oust Solih, who is known for his closeness to India.
Therefore, it is no surprise that the opposition is painting all infrastructural and developmental projects by India as examples of India’s military expansion into the country. For example, in May, India announced its decision to open a new consulate in Addu City so that Maldivians were not obligated to travel to Male to access consular or visa services. Subsequently, proponents of the “India-Out” campaign presented this move as an indication of India’s growing military presence in the city. Similar criticisms have been floated against the India-funded police academies and the Uthuru Thila Falhu naval base.
Although these criticisms of the Solih government for allowing India to expand its military presence are largely baseless, the ruling government has made critical mistakes that have provided an ideal breeding ground for these accusations. The main reason for this is the lack of transparency in concluding these deals. For example, several agreements with India have neither been discussed in the Parliament nor been made accessible to the public. While the country’s constitution mandates any such bilateral agreements to be presented before the democratically elected Parliament, the government has refused to do so, citing national security concerns. Furthermore, the already resource-deprived citizens have also been concerned about the Maldives Police Services projects being handed over to Indian companies without any “competitive tendering process,” further cementing fears of “Indian occupation.”
In this light, India and the Maldives must work together to ensure that rising scepticism amongst citizens is combated through enhanced transparency. This will ensure that the incumbent administration can continue to expand its diplomatic friendship with India without endangering political interests. Failure to do this will not only result in Solih losing his position as the country’s premier, but it could also lead to China once again replacing India as the country’s key regional ally, thereby undercutting India’s larger ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.
What’s Driving the “India-Out” Campaign in the Maldives?
The India-Out campaign in the Maldives is not driven by fears of military expansion by India but instead by domestic political motives.
July 23, 2021
SOURCE: EAST ASIA FORUM