When Russian troops began their invasion of Ukraine on 24 February of last year, President Vladimir Putin emphasised that Moscow does not plan to occupy Ukrainian territory, and instead his military sought to “demilitarise and denazify” Ukraine to prevent a “genocide” in Donbas. While Putin has used the allegation of Ukrainian atrocities against Russians to justify his “special military operation,” he has failed to clarify his definition of “demilitarisation.”
However, a careful study of the statements made by Russian officials, including Putin, over the course of the war, indicates that Russia wants to divide Ukraine for quite a few reasons, including eliminating NATO’s presence along the Russian border. In fact, it is widely believed that Russia wants to split Ukraine into two — a Western and an Eastern part — akin to the Korean and German partitions after World War Two.
4. Poland and Hungary will occupy western regions of the formerly existing Ukraine
— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) December 26, 2022
5. The Fourth Reich will be created, encompassing the territory of Germany and its satellites, i.e., Poland, the Baltic states, Czechia, Slovakia, the Kiev Republic, and other outcasts
While Putin has not defined demilitarisation, he has reiterated that he does not regard Ukraine as a “genuine” nation, asserting that it was established after seizing lands from Poland, Hungary, and Romania, and only Russia can assure Ukraine’s sovereignty.
This gives context to Putin’s intentions, as his statement of considering Ukraine to be an artificial country showcases the fundamental Russian belief, making it difficult for the Kremlin to recognise Ukraine’s sovereign status and territorial integrity. It further proves that Moscow is using demilitarisation to fulfil its main goal of dividing the former Soviet state.
In May 2022, independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta’s editor, Dmitry Muratov, affirmed that Putin intended to partition Ukraine by installing a pro-Russian government in Kyiv, accepting Donbas as part of Russia, and letting the western region live “as they want.”
Despite Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov instantly refuting these allegations, even Ukrainian Military Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov claimed in the same month that Putin was attempting to “create North and South Korea in Ukraine” after the Russian forces failed to capture Kyiv, and therefore, could not topple Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government.
At the time, Peskov reiterated that Moscow only wanted to demilitarise Kyiv, ensure its neutrality, and needed a security guarantee that no heavy weaponry capable of changing the “security balance in Europe” would be deployed in the country.
Notwithstanding, Budanov further alleged that Russians would “try to unite the occupied territories into a single quasi-state entity, which will oppose independent Ukraine,” noting, however, that Ukraine’s guerilla forces would engage in tough combat with the Russians. Therefore, his claims prove that Moscow has always been focussed on destabilising Kyiv with such tactics despite no nuclear weapons ever being stationed there.
Russian war aims of “denazification” and “demilitarization”, plus a “friendly” government in Kyiv are sinister codes for a dismembered and destroyed #Ukraine. This is what #PutinsWar is about. Listen to what they say: Russia an imperial, authoritarian tyranny.
— Bob Rae (@BobRae48) April 7, 2022
Underscoring the alleged Ukrainian threat, Putin declared Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine independent before launching the war, thus effectively breaking it into three regions. Subsequently, Russia went on to formally annex these regions, along with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, by conducting referenda in October, which the West considered to be a “sham.”
Giving further credence to Putin’s actions of wanting to partition Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov vowed to “liberate” Ukrainians “from the threat of Nazification that they have faced for years,” reluctantly admitting that Russia does not fully control the regions, especially Kherson.
In fact, in July, Lavrov was the first Russian official to warn that the country would move deeper into Ukrainian territory, and beyond the Donbas region, if the West continued to provide long-range missiles to Kyiv, with the Kremlin calling it a “direct threat” to Russia and its newly-annexed regions.
Additionally, Lavrov considered the Russian invasion as necessary to avoid a constant, protracted battle between the Ukrainian forces and pro-Russia separatists. Again, it demonstrates that Moscow has been looking for reasons to justify its military action instead of making its intentions known loud and clear.
In contrast, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev directly addressed Ukraine as “formerly existing Ukraine” while making wild predictions for 2023 in December of last year, which further raised concerns that Russia wants to erase the former Soviet state from the map.
"Denazification is a set of measures aimed at the nazified mass of the population, which technically cannot be subjected to direct punishment as war criminals"
— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) April 4, 2022
Moreover, in an explosive April 2022 op-ed titled ‘What Should Russia Do With Ukraine’ in Russian state-owned media RIA Novosti, writer Timofei Sergeitsev justified orchestrating a genocide to wipe out the Ukrainian nationality, culture, and language through “de-Ukrainisation,” meaning “a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic component of self-identification of the population of the territories of historical Little Russia (Malorossiya) and New Russia (Novorossiya), begun by the Soviet authorities.”
Sergeitsev further mentioned that the denazification of Ukraine would inevitably lead to its “de-Europeanisation.” The article has since been deleted.
To fulfil its goals of disarming Ukraine, Russia’s forces captured the Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plants early on in the war, so that Kyiv does not become a nuclear power in the near future. To this end, Russia appears to have conveniently forgotten that Ukraine had already given up its nuclear arsenal to Moscow in exchange for its security when the Soviet Union split up in the early 90s.
In addition, Russia has maintained since the beginning of the war that it would stop the military aggression “in a moment” if Ukraine recognised Crimea as part of Russia, accepted the statehood of Donetsk and Luhansk, and adopted a neutral status by rejecting the membership of any bloc (i.e., EU and NATO), indicating that Russia wants a divided Ukraine even at the cost of peace and constant fights.
The phrases “demilitarisation and denazification” are so ambiguous that Putin can easily change the parameters of its war in Ukraine without losing face at home
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 18, 2022
This is especially likely as the war drags on
The Kremlin even rejected Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan as it did not include “today’s realities” of the four Ukrainian regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — having joined Russia. Furthermore, Peskov stated that the Kremlin would not withdraw its troops from Ukraine, nor would it agree to peace talks, unless the West was willing to accept Russia’s new annexations.
In sum, all the evidence points to the idea that the division of Ukraine is one of the main goals of Russia’s invasion.
While the Russian rhetoric confirms Putin’s goal to divide Ukraine into two opposing camps, the situation on the battleground does not paint a favourable picture for Russia. Moscow has been facing massive losses in the Ukraine war, including over 113,000 deaths, mass destruction of Russian military equipment, and Ukrainian forces managing to recapture large swathes of its territories in the north-eastern and southern regions.
Moreover, despite Russia bombarding Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, President Zelensky has refused to back down, insisting that “Ukraine will not surrender” and asserting that “just peace” means no compromise to Ukraine’s sovereign status. Moreover, he underscored that Russia would have to pay war reparations to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction.
«In the depth of winter, I finally learned that within me there lay an invincible summer.»
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 12, 2023
Albert Camus
Total combat losses of the enemy from Feb 24 to Jan 12: pic.twitter.com/0tGha5YKn5
Therefore, dividing Ukraine to achieve demilitarisation appears to be a far-fetched goal, especially with the West continuing to pump Kyiv with military and financial support worth billions. To make matters worse, Putin’s decision to declare a 36-hour ceasefire on Orthodox Christmas in January suggests that his aim to dismantle Ukraine is proving to be much more difficult than he had thought.
Plus, the western bloc has reportedly advised the Kyiv regime not to go for negotiations, which would eventually lead to Russia being ready to save face by officially declaring the “special military operation” a success, while still continuing to support the pro-Russian separatists in the background.
In conclusion, even though dividing Ukraine may become a prerequisite to ending the war from Russia’s perspective, it will be impossible to achieve, and would only lead to Russia being badgered for its belligerence worldwide.