Challenges to multilateralism and the need for reform
The Group of Four (G4) talks among Brazil, Germany, India and Japan were held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) sessions in New York last month. The talks come two years after a similar event held in 2017. The G4 members reiterated their support for each others’ bids to become permanent members of an expanded United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and sought reform in the existing power structure in the United Nations (UN) which, as per their argument, continues to reflect the post World War II (WWII) world order.
Currently, the permanent members at the UNSC are the ‘victors’ of WWII along with China, the only Asian power on the bench. Significant yet unsuccessful efforts towards a reform of the UNSC took place in 2005 during the UN World Summit to include more emerging powers in the discussions. The efforts were derailed primarily due to the existence of 3 solid blocs with rivaling interests: the G4, the Uniting for Consensus (UFC) grouping, and the African Union (AU). The G4, in addition to its bids to the UNSC, vouches for 4 other non-permanent members and envisages an expanded council of 23 member states. The UFC vehemently opposes this and demands for the expansion of the UNSC to 25 seats with different countries, while the AU insists on the inclusion of two African permanent member states in an expanded UNSC of 26 members.
The year 2020 marks the 75th anniversary of the UN and provides a great opportunity to further the reform agenda for renewed thinking and strategy. The world today is witnessing the emergence of several poles of power and is not bipolar, unlike the Cold War era. The alliances that were reflective of the post WWII international order are no longer valid, and today’s nations have been working on convergent interests outside of traditional alliances. Economic relations and interests have largely impeded big powers from direct military conflict, and partnerships have gained prominence over alliance structures.
To put it in the words of India’s External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar:
“The days of non-alignment are over and today we live in an era of stronger multi-polarity and weaker multilateralism. We are moving significantly from a world of alliances to a world of convergent interests.”
While the world is quickly reconciling with this new reality and novel outlook, there is certainly a need for stronger multilateralism too. Given vital issues that pose threats to both traditional and non-traditional aspects of security like climate change, emerging technologies, the race for space weapons, and the ever looming risk a of global financial crisis, multilateralism is essential. Therefore, the reformation of existing institutional structures is not just a sufficient condition, but rather a necessary one. Unless such reforms are initiated, the UN and similar international organizations are likely to either fail or give rise to other parallel institutions that serve the contemporary interests of emerging powers from the Global South. Apart from this, the arrival of such institutions could legitimize non-democratic political powers like China, whose economic rise has coincided with a gross violation of human rights, environmental degradation and the consolidation of power with authoritarian leadership.
At the same time, there is an immediate need for an epistemological analysis of the foundation of the liberal world order and subjects like human rights. It would not be further from the truth to claim that the liberal world order is falling apart even in Western societies today. Be it the emergence of right-wing populism or cultural and ethnic nationalism, there is certainly a need to ponder over such questions today instead of obfuscating from reality and adhering to them dogmatically. The whole idea of humanitarian intervention and the right to protect the “oppressed” by Western democracies has itself resulted in massive human rights violations and cost thousands of lives of civilians, from Syria and Iraq to Yemen and Afghanistan. An April 2019 UN report has stated that more civilians were killed by the allied interventionist forces in Afghanistan than by the Taliban during the first three months of this year. This raises pertinent questions on the motivation behind such foreign interventions, and more so, the legitimacy of multilateral judicial institutions like the International Criminal Court is questioned by critics, as war criminals from the USA cannot be held accountable for their crimes and get away with impunity.
Challenging Western standards on human rights, India’s Home Minister Amit Shah recently remarked:
“India has an inbuilt framework of human rights. Our family values have special protection of women and children, and villages look after the poor believing it to be part of their dharma.”
With the balance of power tilting strongly towards Asia today and issues like energy security taking priority, the security situation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is of utmost importance, and the political unrest and Western interventionist policies in place are under the scanner. Such critical questions of international importance can only be answered by reforming institutions like the UNSC. Moreover, non-traditional aspects of security including environment, food, energy etc. will gain priority when emerging powers from the Global South reach the high table as they are the countries that are likely to face the biggest impact in these areas due to climate change.
The G7 (formerly G8) and G20 summits have been garnering a lot of attention, and some might argue that the membership to the UNSC should be curtailed to the economic power houses represented in these two groups, as they include all major emerging markets. This argument is partially valid; yet, UNSC membership on the basis of economic power would not solve the problem of an overarching Western influence in global politics, is not adequately representative of African and Asian countries, and does not include important regional powers like Iran, which is at the forefront of bilateral policymaking by the existing powers in the status quo. Moreover, groups like the G7 and G20 are informal in nature without any organizational structure that attributes any charter-based institutional legitimacy frameworks. Therefore, such groups cannot address prominent issues related to global security including terrorism, climate security etc. and the vacuum of representation can only be filled by expanding existing multilateral bodies like the UNSC which have the necessary legal mechanisms to frame resolutions on germane issues related to security.
G4 to R7: A case for equitable power redistribution
I argue that the reform in the UNSC should be reflective of an equitable distribution of power of not only economy but also other factors like culture, language and religion. I advocate for the expansion of the G4 to the ‘R7’, adding Mexico, South Africa and Indonesia to the group. The R in my proposed R7 stands for reform in the UNSC, which is the focus of this article. The rationale behind the inclusion of these three countries is deliberated below.
Mexico as the Hispanophone representative
Mexico is the biggest Spanish speaking Latin American country both in terms of its economy as well as population. It ranks 15th in the world in terms of nominal GDP and is considered a regional power. Mexico’s location in North America, extending into Central America makes it unique. In addition to this Mexico is both an Atlantic as well as Pacific power and more importantly is a country that is a member of the UFC. It has always maintained a policy of non-intervention and remains neutral on various national and international issues, and started participating in UN peace keeping only from 2014, during the incumbency of President Enrique Pena Nieto. Mexico’s location brings it in proximity to the Caribbean Committee (CARICOM) nations and to the Panama Canal. The country forms the path for thousands of Hispanophone refugees and migrants from Central and South America to the United States and this number has doubled due to the unstable political and security situations in Central America. All these attributes as well as its proximity to Spanish-speaking states in Central and South America make it an ideal choice to be the permanent member at UNSC and play a leading security provider role in its neighborhood.
South Africa as the African representative
Africa is comprised of various linguistic constituencies which include those who speak Arabic, Portuguese, English, French, and German, along with traditional languages. Hence, arriving at a consensus on an African representative is a Herculean task. Nonetheless, the 2012 Ezulwini Consensus which was arrived at in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) throws light on the AU position of including two African states as permanent members of the UNSC along with the inclusion of 5 non-permanent member states (changing on a rotational basis representing North, East, West, South and Central Africa). South Africa is undoubtedly the best choice for one of the permanent seats at the high table in the UNSC. It is one among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) states, is a member of the G20, and is also an emerging global market with the highest per capita GDP in Africa. South Africa is also already a member of control regimes like the Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG), the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Another important attribute is the fact that South Africa is littoral to both, the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean. With oil-producing Atlantic countries like Nigeria and Angola as well as the security situation in the Indo-Pacific facing several issues, South Africa can play a crucial role in enhancing security in both the regions.
Indonesia’s centrality in the Indo-Pacific
Indonesia is a major player in the Indo-Pacific region and is a diverse country with more than 17,000 islands. It is littoral to the Andaman Sea, the Malacca Straits and the South China Sea, making it a significant naval power in the geopolitics of the region. Not just this, but its geography makes it highly susceptible to the impending security crisis stemming from climate change and rising sea levels.
Indonesia also houses the largest Muslim population in the world and is the biggest GDP holder among the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states. The state also has strategic maritime partnerships with USA, Vietnam, India and Japan among others, and conducts routine joint naval exercises with these countries. Ensuring freedom of navigation and keeping the sea lanes of communication open is a priority, and with Indonesia’s geographical advantage it can play a significant role in the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific as a permanent member of the UNSC. While Indonesia can also play a role in the affairs of the world of Islam being a Muslim majority country, it is also a democracy and represents an eclectic culture of tolerance and diversity. It can also effectively voice the concerns of fellow ASEAN states that have had territorial disputes with China and lead to peace and stability in the region.
One could argue that countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran are better choices to represent the Islamic world. The issue with these countries is that the ascendancy of one may not be agreeable to the other, which is anyway a major cause for tension among Sunni, Shi’ite, and ethnic groups. Furthermore, given the relationship between the West and the MENA region and growing tensions between the USA and Iran, it seems highly unlikely that Islamic countries, which are generally viewed as violent irrational actors in most Western tradition, would find themselves on a negotiating table for security related matters.
The inclusion of the R7 at the UNSC high table, therefore, would increase its permanent membership number to 12 and act as the first true stepping stone to increased representation at the esteemed international organization. Alongside the resultant G12, one can also argue for an increase in the total number of non-permanent members to 13, making the UNSC a 25 member body. The non-permanent membership, which is currently only at 10 seats, can follow the existing process of selection through voting to accommodate three more seats, of which two can be accorded to African and Asian states while the third can represent Pacific Island states that are at a very high security risk due to the climate crisis.
In conclusion, it is in the interest of the global community to come up with contemporary and quick solutions for the changing (and increasingly unpredictable) nature of global politics. Ignoring emerging powers and the economic rise of Asia is detrimental to the future of multilateralism. Persisting with existing power structures that are reminiscent of the last century will only create a situation of vacuum for adversarial powers seeking to entirely overhaul the existing world order. While the failure of liberalism may be a good riddance for some, the issue currently is that the nature of this change in global “value” systems is not entirely clear or linear, and presiding over this transition should be a multilateral effort with the right checks and balances. The world today comprises of, democratic and non-democratic systems that are interdependent on one another for trade and commerce, and these exchanges serve as a primary deterrent to conflict. A renewed understanding of the dynamics of interaction between world powers should be incorporated into the reform process, thus paving the way for a more stable world with reduced instances of violent conflict.
While the international system is increasingly moving towards convergence and away from alliances, it is also important to keep multilateralism alive in order to stress on the need for collective action to effectively deal with climate change, the new space race, financial risks, emerging technologies etc. The expansion of the G4 to R7 with the inclusion of Mexico, South Africa and Indonesia is the need of the hour and can make a stronger case for multilateralism and further reform in the UNSC as they represent various regional, linguistic and religious identities. There is certainly room for discussion on the merits of the new members as well as rival voices against their inclusion. A pitch for change may not necessarily guarantee a reform immediately, but keeping it alive can certainly have an impact as and when the situation is right for the implementation of novel ideas.
Background picture courtesy: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's Twitter Page
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