As India gears up to give a “memorable welcome” to President Donald Trump on his first official visit to India, the long-standing debate around the utility of optic-oriented state visits has re-emerged. In the build-up to this highly anticipated two-day visit, much of the media coverage has focused on bilateral issues that need papering over, as well as the magnitude of the rally to be held at the Motera cricket stadium in Ahmedabad. Seen as a sequel to the Howdy Modi event held in Houston last year, both leaders are expected to address over 1 lakh people in the world’s largest cricket stadium.
Barring some hyperbolic and ignorant comparisons, there are many similarities between the two leaders. For instance, they both receive criticism for their “showmanship,” allegedly giving preference to style over substance in their diplomatic dealings. On their foreign visits, they have shown an increasing preference for the personalization of high-level external engagement. This individual-driven approach and emphasis on rallies through events such as the upcoming one in Gujarat, have led to accusations undermining the two leaders' respective foreign policy goals.
In an age of hyper-partisanship and polarization–apparent in both polities today–the significance of ‘optics’ in diplomacy is being heavily scrutinized. Hence, there is no doubt that the 'Kem Cho Trump' event, by its very design, will see an automatic repudiation and rebuke from the ideological opponents of the architects of the exercise, i.e., Trump and Modi.
It is also natural to draw parallels between the ‘Howdy Modi’ and ‘Kem Cho Trump’ events, but we should not ignore some notable differences and contrasting motivations behind them. Apart from “cementing India-US ties,” they also undoubtedly serve a political purpose for the two leaders. Although one cannot deny the role of the American President's predecessor in beginning the tradition of visiting India in his first term and the importance of such a visit, continuity is not the only factor for Trump's visit.
Both leaders are deft politicians in their own right, and will also utilise the hype around the spectacle for their immediate personal interests. For Trump, it is an opportunity to appeal to the Indian-American communities, who have traditionally aligned themselves to the Democratic Party. His main aim will be to use his friendship with Narendra Modi to garner financial contributions from certain sections of the Indian diaspora, even if it does not translate into votes. For Modi, support from Trump and the one-on-one camaraderie will also dampen some of the international criticism that has come his way due to his domestic policies; in particular with regards to India’s actions in Kashmir. But seeing this bonhomie on such platforms merely as two ideologically aligned strongmen validating each other’s political and cultural projects, or inflating each other’s brands, would be an incomplete assessment.
Donald Trump’s visit is more about himself and his innate desire for a grand reception at a politically expedient moment. We saw this during Modi’s last visit to America, where 50,000 people showed up to witness the spectacle. With nine months left for the U.S. Presidential elections, Trump will likely use this event for domestic electoral gains in a bid to enhance his image as a successful statesman who is “getting things done” in every sphere.
Trump will want to use this visit to showcase his international appeal to people back home. Riding high with a 49% approval rating, he would want to shed any post impeachment blues while the disarray in the Democratic Party continues. Hence, choosing to go to India at this time is a conscious decision. The prospect of getting a lavish welcome by a political leader who is popular both at home and abroad must have played a considerable part. It is for this reason that he picked Saudi Arabia for his first state visit, knowing fully well that there would be fewer chances of him courting controversy and witnessing any protests–and it was probably due to the absence of such a politically conducive time and atmosphere that his trip to the U.K. was repeatedly delayed.
For Modi, events like these are not new–from Madison Square Garden to the grand reception at Wembley Stadium where the British PM personally welcomed him to the stage and acknowledged his 'rock-star like' status, Modi understands the purpose such spectacles serve, for him and for India. One can say that he, too, aims to bolster his image back home through such events; but there is also a genuine case to be for his need to reach out to the Indian diaspora.
One can only imagine how Trump felt onstage in Texas when he realized that he had to play second fiddle by being the opening act for the PM. But, as Modi prepares to play host for the first time, hopefully, he realises that unlike himself, this guest will need more than just courtship, but rather needs something tangible to show back home. Trump's transactional approach to international relations and hard bargaining will be a challenge for India. Any last-minute changes in crucial trade or energy-related deals will be put under the microscope.
Critics of Modi’s approach to diplomacy have always suggested that the Prime Minister’s frenzied and frenetic visits abroad combined with his obsession with “eventing” for diasporic outreach, divert the diplomatic apparatus from real issues facing Indian foreign policy. On his own turf, the Indian PM will be under more pressure to show something tangible and not be seen as making significant concessions to the American President, especially on trade and tariffs.
But, focusing on optics in diplomacy or the spotlight and coverage these events enjoy in public discourse does not necessarily mean there is no substantive diplomatic work been done behind the scenes. Therefore, even if the expected extravaganza might overshadow the substance, there will be tangible outcomes for both nations. Substantive outcomes are often a result of such individual-driven approaches that supplement traditional diplomatic engagement. Multiple occasions for meaningful engagements sometimes fail to give way to headlining summits or path-breaking events as some would hope.
While we can rue over differences between the two nations on tariffs over agricultural imports or withdrawal export incentives under the U.S.' Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), we must not ignore the growing cooperation in the energy and defence sector. Most of these differences over trade precede Trump, but in recent years both countries have seen an increasing convergence. The Trump administration, unlike its predecessor, has been more willing to sell top-end, critical technology weaponry, which will be force multipliers for Indian Armed Forces. In fact, on this trip, we might see significant defence deals worth almost $5 billion being signed. These range from multi-role helicopters for the Indian Navy to the sale of the coveted Integrated Air Defence Weapon System (IADWS), dubbed as one of the most advanced missile defence systems.
Furthermore, nobody should be surprised if India goes out of its way to court the American President. Reports of municipal authorities in Ahmedabad building walls to hide slums while resurfacing roads and planting palm trees along the 10-km strip on which both leaders are supposed to have a roadshow can be criticised, but one cannot fail to see the logic behind it. This beautification drive, along with security and event-related expenditure according to some estimates, will cost the state exchequer around Rs 100 crores. Detractors may question the need for the Indian state machinery doing the heavy lifting and organising such an event, but frankly, flattery works with Donald Trump.
Thus, for a leader as intuitive, erratic, and egoistic as Trump, who just days before his visit felt the need to tweet about having more followers than PM Modi on Facebook, one cannot possibly understate the importance of optics. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why the projection of the size of the crowd likely to be present to greet him was his key takeaway from the conversation he had with the Narendra Modi on call.
Ultimately, New Delhi, like Japan and other allies, aims to leverage the goodwill that Trump has towards its leader and is attempting to orient him towards more meaningful engagement with the country. As an unnamed Indian diplomat said in 2017: “it is in our national interest to flatter them.”
Reference List
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Govt is Building a Wall to Mask Slums Along Trump-Modi’s Ahmedabad Roadshow Route. (2020). Retrieved 17 February 2020, from https://www.news18.com/news/india/govt-is-building-a-wall-to-mask-slums-along-trump-modis-ahmedabad-roadshow-route-2499539.html
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