Last year, the world witnessed improved bilateral relations between Russia and North Korea. Moscow, isolated from the international community and in dire need of ammunition and weapons to continue its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, chose to further strengthen ties with Pyonyang.
Although the two have been partners for decades, recent events indicate increased military cooperation, which experts claim may prolong the conflict in Ukraine and intensify provocations in the Korean peninsula as well.
Diplomatic Exchange
Russian DM’s July Visit
The strengthening of the North Korea-Russia alliance began in July 2023, when North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un invited a Russian delegation, led by Russian Defence Minister (DM) Sergei Shoigu, to Pyongyang to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the Korean War Armistice Agreement. During the visit, Kim accompanied Shoigu to a weapons display that featured nuclear-capable missiles and new military drones.
Later, North Korean DM Kang Sun-nam voiced his country’s “full support for the just struggle of the Russian army and people to defend the sovereignty and security of the country.”
North Korea has been actively strengthening its ties with Russia, highlighted by leader Kim Jong Un’s September visit to Russia for a summit with Putin. https://t.co/GYGCV8YRTm
— NBC DFW (@NBCDFW) January 21, 2024
Kim-Putin September Summit
In September 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim met at the Vostochny spaceport in Russia’s Far East and discussed the possibility of sending a North Korean cosmonaut into space. The Supreme Leader raised a toast to Putin’s health, the success of “great Russia,” and Korean-Russian friendship, predicting Moscow’s victory in its “sacred fight” with the West in the Ukraine conflict.
“The Russian army and people will certainly win a great victory in the sacred struggle for the punishment of a great evil that claims hegemony and feeds an expansionist illusion,” Kim remarked.
The state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported, “Kim Jong Un said that his visit to the Russian Federation ... is a clear manifestation of the stand of the WPK (Workers’ Party of Korea) and the government of the DPRK (North Korea) prioritising the strategic importance of DPRK-Russia relations.”
The KCNA revealed that this trip to Russia was Kim’s first in nearly four years. According to the news agency, the visit aims to elevate North Korean-Russian friendship and cooperation to a “fresh higher level.”
⚡️Media: Putin preparing to visit North Korea.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) January 21, 2024
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced his willingness to visit Pyongyang in the near future during a visit with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui in Russia last week, North Korea's state news agency reported on Jan. 21.
North Korean FM Visit to Russia
Earlier this month, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that North Korean Foreign Minister (FM) Choe Son-hui was in Moscow on an official visit from 14-18 January. During the visit, Choe paid a courtesy call to Putin, spoke with her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, and met with Russia’s Deputy PM, Alexandr Novak.
The statement indicates that Choe and Lavrov discussed issues connected to expanding bilateral relations, with a “focus on implementing the agreements resulting from the September summit between the leaders of the two countries at the Vostochny Space Launch Centre.”
Per the statement released by North Korean state media, “The [North Korean] government warmly welcomes President Putin to visit Pyongyang and is ready to greet the Korean people’s closest friend with the greatest sincerity.” Putin, in turn, thanked Kim for inviting him to Pyongyang “at a convenient time, and conveyed his willingness to visit [North Korea] at an early date.”
Russian forces are beginning to deploy North Korean arms, prompting new concerns for Ukraine while the country awaits air defenses from the U.S. https://t.co/TqIhNg63Ur
— The New York Times (@nytimes) January 23, 2024
Alleged Arms Supply
Until recently, Russia relied on its significant domestic stocks of Soviet weapons and, to some extent, Iran for replenishment. However, last year, the Russian army faced a gradual artillery shortage due to the rapid depletion of reserves during the now almost two-year-old war in Ukraine.
Reports indicate that, initially, North Korea sent weapons to the Wagner PMC to prepare for the predicted storming of Soledar and Bakhmut (as of 2022, according to American officials). However, following the Wagner Group’s failed rebellion, the Russian command maintained a direct connection with the Koreans.
There was a “dramatic and unprecedented level of freight railcar traffic at North Korea’s Tumangang Rail Facility located on the North Korea–Russia border,” Eastasia Forum reported, citing an October 2023 report, which noted that satellite imagery of North Korea’s Tumangang Rail Facility near the Russian border obtained on 5 October 2023 showed a total of around 73 freight railcars.
Per the report, “Kim and Putin discussed some military exchanges and cooperation at their recent summit. The dramatic increase in rail traffic likely indicates North Korea’s supply of arms and munitions to Russia.”
According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea has delivered over a million artillery shells and other weapons to Russia in ten separate shipments since early August. The million rounds of ammunition include Soviet-calibre 122-mm for Grad and 152-mm for howitzers, both of which Russia is in need of.
Economic Cooperation
Russian and North Korean officials met in Pyongyang in November to discuss enhancing economic, scientific, and technological cooperation following the agreements signed by their leaders in September, North Korean state media, KCNA reported. Yun Jong Ho, North Korea’s minister of external economic relations, and Alexander Kozlov, Russia’s natural resources minister, took part in the 10th meeting of the “Committee for Cooperation in Trade, Economy, Science and Technology.”
“The meeting discussed and confirmed in detail the measures for revitalising and expanding the multi-faceted bilateral exchange and cooperation in different fields, including trade, economy, science and technology,” the news agency stated. Furthermore, both countries’ sports ministers reportedly also met in Pyongyang to discuss expanding ties and agreed on a plan for exchanges between 2024 and 2026.
Mutually Beneficial Relations
The benefits of strategic partnership for Russia are clear, as it would be close to a monopoly buyer of North Korean weapons, allowing for favourable negotiating terms. Further, a Lowy Institute report mentioned that since the two countries share a land border, North Korea’s massive military-industrial system could enable Russia to order a large number of weapons and ammunition quickly.
In exchange for the weapons, Russia may provide advanced military technology to assist North Korea in developing and expanding its military capabilities. For example, North Korean needs could include technologies for refining solid-fuel missiles and nuclear-powered submarines. The secretive regime uses solid fuel in several tiny, short-range ballistic missiles. In the early 1970s, the Soviet Union launched its first solid-fuel ICBM, the RT-2, followed by France.
As North Korea expands its arsenal of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, it earns greater long-term benefits compared to Russia as it seeks technical assistance for space and advanced weapons research and development. Additionally, North Koreans hope to receive food supplies from Russia.
US, South Korea concerned about North Korea, Russia military cooperation, Secretary of State Antony Blinken says https://t.co/5pehAtNgAm pic.twitter.com/hfcmQ20QHm
— The Hill (@thehill) November 10, 2023
Implications of Russia-North Korea Ties
North Korea’s strategic partnership with Russia has huge geopolitical implications. As both countries aim to assert their influence globally, their alliance provides a platform for pursuing their respective goals.
Various factors will define the future prospects of North Korea-Russian strategic cooperation, with regional security dynamics and economic conditions playing important roles. However, international sanctions imposed on North Korea for its nuclear weapons programme have constrained the scope of economic cooperation.
Additionally, reports indicate that the developing cooperation between Russia and North Korea may impede attempts to denuclearise the Korean Peninsula. Thus, restarting the process of denuclearisation and establishing a security and peace mechanism in the region may become more challenging.
Furthermore, Russia and North Korea’s cooperation might eventually give rise to a nuclear partnership. Given that both countries are major nuclear powers, forming such an alliance may substantially provoke the West, most notably the US. Accordingly, the growing relationship between Russia and North Korea, especially in terms of defence, continues to draw close attention from neighbouring countries and the international community.
In terms of regional dynamics, the two nations’ growing cooperation adds a new dimension to Northeast Asia’s complex geopolitical setting, which experts believe can shift the balance of power, damage regional security, and reshape alliances.
Conclusion
In recent years, Moscow and Pyongyang’s strategic cooperation has grown significantly. Both sides have expressed a common goal of establishing strong nations and worked to strengthen their partnership. High-level diplomatic visits, including talks between Putin and Kim, demonstrate the significance the two leaders position on their relationship. However, the North Korea-Russia partnership has the potential to significantly jeopardise global and regional security dynamics. Such a situation has the potential to significantly provoke the West and intensify tensions across and increasingly multipolar world order.