One of the conditions set by Spain before transferring the Moroccan enclave of Western Sahara to Rabat in 1975 was that the new authorities would respect the opinion of the Sahrawi people, who were overwhelmingly in favour of independence. While Morocco has since refused to hold a referendum in the region, Spain continued to maintain a neutral position on Western Sahara and did not support any side and encouraged the two parties to begin negotiations.
However, in a sudden reversal of its decades-long policy, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez recently recognised Rabat’s independence over Western Sahara and endorsed its autonomy plan for the region. According to the plan, Western Sahara will be accorded semi-autonomous status under the sovereignty of Morocco. Sánchez even visited Morocco following his government’s decision and met with King Mohammed VI to cement relations in a move that was hailed by Rabat.
There are two major reasons why Spain chose to recognise Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.
First, Spain believes that Morocco’s autonomy plan is the best way to resolve the conflict, as there has been no progress since the decades-long war between Morocco and the Polisario Front, the unofficial government of Western Sahara, ended in 1991. Attempts to bring both parties to the negotiating table have failed and the ceasefire was broken in 2020 by the Polisario. Against this backdrop, Spain has endorsed Morocco’s proposal as the “most serious, realistic and credible” plan to end the conflict.
Second, Spain counts on Morocco’s help in curbing the flow of illegal immigrants into the country, which has been dealing with a surge of illegal immigrants and has been at the forefront of European Union (EU)-led efforts to introduce stricter migration controls. A significant portion of migrants from North Africa and the Middle East travel to Europe via Morocco, which gives it significant control over migratory flows into Europe. Recently, Spain has seen a rise in illegal immigrants owing to the Syrian civil war and other regional conflicts. In fact, in May 2021 alone, more than 8,000 migrants from Morocco tried to cross into the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, resulting in Spanish security forces using force and firing tear gas to prevent migrants from entering Spanish territory.
However, despite Madrid’s hope that recognition will lead to progress on the issue of Western Sahara as well as a significant drop in illegal immigration, there is no guarantee that Rabat will follow through on its commitments. In fact, evidence shows that Morocco has not responded kindly to previous gestures by Spain.
According to Andrew Lebovich and Hugh Lovatt, researchers at the European Council on Foreign Relations, the Sánchez government’s move rewards Morocco’s “pressure campaign” against Spain. They argue that Morocco has been “exploiting [Spain’s] vulnerability to irregular migration.” For instance, when Spain allowed Brahim Ghali, leader of the Polisario Front, to receive treatment for COVID-19 at a Spanish hospital in April 2021, Morocco retaliated by allowing around 10,000 migrants to enter Ceuta. Therefore, despite Spain taking several steps to improve relations with the North African country, including firing a foreign minister who was critical of Morocco’s policies in Western Sahara and agreeing to supply natural gas, authorities in Rabat have not shown any sign of cooperating with Madrid.
Moreover, given Rabat’s history of not following through on its commitments, Spain’s reasoning that endorsing Morocco’s autonomy plan will lead to conflict-resolution in Western Sahara is questionable at best. For example, shortly after Spain decolonised Western Sahara in 1975, Morocco reneged on its promise to respect the opinion of the Sahrawis to decide their fate and instead carved the entire region for itself. Rabat has also rejected United Nations resolutions that recognise the right of the Sahrawis to independence.
In fact, Spain’s recognition of the autonomy plan could actually make matters worse. Following Madrid’s announcement of its recognition of Morocco’s plan, the Polisario Front condemned the move and severed ties with Spain. The Polisario said that Spain’s decision to support Morocco gives Rabat the freedom “to annex, by force, the territories of Western Sahara and to seize the inalienable rights of the Sahrawi people to self-determination and independence.” As tensions between Morocco and the Polisario have increased, Spain’s move threatens to further destabilise the region, as a conflict in Western Sahara would lead to many casualties, a humanitarian crisis, and a possible influx of tens of thousands of refugees into Europe, something that Spain wants to avoid at all costs.
Spain’s move has also soured relations with Algeria, an important energy partner for Madrid. Since 1975, Algeria has been a staunch supporter of the Polisario Front and its quest for independence; it has supplied the pro-independence movement with arms and financial support. Algiers recalled its ambassador to Madrid to protest Spain’s move and has said that it will only send back its envoy if it receives clarifications from Spanish authorities. Crucially, Algeria is also Spain’s largest natural gas supplier, accounting for 42% of the country’s natural gas needs, which it could use as leverage in the Western Sahara dispute. In fact, in November last year, Algeria stopped supplying gas through one of its pipelines that pass through Morocco in order to punish Madrid as tensions between the two neighbours escalated. Therefore, the possibility of Algeria cutting gas supplies once again cannot be discounted.
Spain’s U-turn on its Western Sahara policy has also been met with domestic opposition, even within the ruling party. Shortly after Sánchez’s announcement, Spain’s Congress of Deputies voted to condemn the government’s recognition of Morocco’s autonomy plan. Furthermore, only 118 members of Sánchez’s own party voted against the motion, while the rest 168 abstained from voting. Additionally, coalition members like the Podemos Party of Sánchez’s Socialist government have threatened to withdraw from the coalition over the government’s moves.
All things considered, Spain’s counterproductive decision to recognise Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara has created more problems than solutions. The move inadvertently increases Morocco’s leverage over Spain, does not guarantee a peaceful settlement of the conflict, complicates bilateral ties, and creates domestic problems.
Spain’s Recognition of Morocco’s Sovereignty Over Western Sahara is Counterproductive
Spain's decision creates more problems than it solves as the move has been met by domestic opposition, creates bilateral tensions, and will not help Madrid in curbing illegal immigration from Morocco.
April 21, 2022
Indigenous Sahrawi women chant slogans during UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's visit to the desert refugee camp of Smara in Tindouf, southern Algeria, March 5, 2016. IMAGE SOURCE: REUTERS