Despite the United States (US) Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Linda Thomas-Greenfield clarifying this month that India’s stance on Russia has no bearing on bilateral ties and various White House officials underscoring that sanctions over Russian oil purchases are off the table, the Russia-Ukraine war has undoubtedly widened differences between the two countries.
In fact, US President Joe Biden himself has condemned India’s “shaky” stance, while other administration officials have warned of “significant consequences” over India’s decision to purchase discounted Russian oil and abstain from votes against Russia in the UN.
Both US and Indian officials remain “bullish” about the state of bilateral relations. However, the US has simultaneously sought to bolster defence ties with Pakistan. While Washington insists that its relationships with both New Delhi and Islamabad “stand on [their] own,” India must nonetheless closely monitor the impact of burgeoning US-Pakistan ties could have in Kashmir and on its wider security interests.
Last month, the US approved a $450 million F-16 deal with Pakistan that will see it provide engineering, technical, and logistics support for the fighter jet fleet. The US insists that the deal merely honours its commitment to providing life-cycle maintenance support for defence sales and that it will not be delivering any new weapons or equipment. It has also stressed that the jets are merely intended for counterterrorism and will not “alter the basic military balance in the region.”
However, India remains less than convinced, saying the US is “not fooling anybody,” noting that it will “boost the [Pakistani Air Force’s] overall operational capability.” Moreover, the aircraft have been used against India in the past. For instance, in 2019, Pakistan used the jets to target Indian military facilities in the Naushera sector along the Line of Control. In fact, the US even chided Pakistan for misusing the aircraft following the incident.
The F-16s also represent a huge upgrade on Pakistan’s China-made JF-17s, which have been criticised for emitting black smoke, making them an easier target for aerial combat.
The F-16 deal was also closely followed by Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa’s visit to the US to meet with Secretary of Defence Lloyd J. Austin, wherein they discussed “key mutual defence interests.”
In fact, some analysts have described the F-16 deal as a “reward” for Bajwa for refraining from stepping in during the political crisis in April, when now-former Prime Minister Imran Khan accused the US of plotting with Shehbaz Sharif, his eventual successor, to oust him from power. Others have claimed it was a reward for Pakistan’s decision to allow the US to use its airspace to launch the drone strike in Kabul that killed Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri.
More concerningly, the US-aided expansion of Pakistan’s military capabilities comes at a time the Indian Air Force squadron’s own strength has dropped below the sanctioned limit of 42, a concern that the Indian Parliament’s Standing Committee on Defence has said must be addressed immediately. The fighter jet fleet has fallen below 30 and is expected to diminish even further, with the Jaguar jets set to be phased out soon. Meanwhile, India’s S-30 MKI has serviceability issues, while its indigenous Tejas LCA does not have the same capabilities as its imported alternatives.
Apart from the air force, the US has also increased its strategic convergence with Pakistan on the naval front, with the US Navy’s 5th Fleet recently taking part in a joint exercise with the Pakistani Navy to enhance interoperability and facilitate technical exchanges.
“For many years, the United States has been committed to strengthening educational opportunities for residents of AJK, recognizing that a good education is key to individuals’ and communities’ prosperity and stability” -DB #AmbBlome 2/2 pic.twitter.com/c85Y14Ey7R
— U.S. Embassy Islamabad (@usembislamabad) October 5, 2022
In addition to strengthening Pakistan’s military capabilities, the US has offered legitimacy to its territorial claims in the Kashmir region. Earlier this month, US Ambassador to Islamabad Donald Blome visited Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK), where he met with several regional leaders, including the de facto Prime Minister of the region, Tanveer Ilyas.
Alongside meeting POK’s highest-ranking official, the US embassy also referred to the region as Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK) in a press release following Blome’s visit, effectively ignoring the terminology used by India to denote Pakistan’s illegal occupation of the area.
While the US has referred to POK as AJK in previous human rights and counterterrorism reports, the timing of the visit, which came against the backdrop of rising tensions between the US and India, has not helped matters.
That being said, there has been no direct indication of the US changing its official stand on Kashmir, and it remains unlikely to do so, considering New Delhi’s strategic importance to Washington. Despite recent tensions, Jaishankar said that he remains positive about ties with the US and also lauded it as the “most powerful country.”
First a $450 million F-16 aid package to Pak.
— Palki Sharma (@palkisu) October 7, 2022
Then US envoy visits Pak-occupied Kashmir.
What’s worse he calls it Azad Kashmir(AJK),not UN term Pak Administered Kashmir(PAK).
2nd visit by a US official to PoK this yr.
India conveys “objection.”
Strategic ally’s classic subterfuge https://t.co/lVsKg9llne
India is a critical player in the US’ ambition to counter China in the Indo-Pacific— through the Quad and other bilateral and multilateral engagements—and is being groomed to provide alternatives to Chinese goods, especially in the pharmaceutical and electronics industries.
Furthermore, it is important to note that the US-Pakistan relationship took a nosedive during the previous government, after now-former PM Imran Khan repeatedly accused the US of staging the plot to remove him (with the complicity of the army), an allegation that the US has time and again dismissed. Therefore, the recent improvement in US-Pakistan ties could simply be a product of the change in government in Islamabad, wherein Washington is just looking to regain lost ground rather than usher in a seismic shift to the status quo.
Moreover, India will have been reassured by Biden’s recent acknowledgement that Pakistan is “one of the [world’s] most dangerous nations” due to the lack of “cohesion” in its nuclear weapons programme. Therefore, there are signs that the US remains wary about the degree to which it can trust Pakistan, irrespective of its impact on US-India ties.
Nevertheless, regardless of whether the negative impact of growing US-Pakistan ties on India-US ties is intentional, an oversight, or simply a risk that the US is willing to take in order to protect its regional security interests, India must maintain a close watch to ensure that its own interests, particularly in Kashmir, are protected. The US’ optimism about Pakistan as a valuable partner in counterterrorism operations is far outweighed by the decades of knowledge and first-hand experience India has accrued about Pakistan’s state-sponsored terrorism. Therefore, India must be wary of how the Sharif administration and the Pakistani army are plotting to mould expanding US support into a weapon.