According to independent Russian media outlet Meduza, Russian elites have held secret discussions about President Vladimir Putin’s potential successor in case he loses public support due to the Ukraine war or falls ill.
The list of candidates allegedly includes Mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin, National Security Council (NSC) Deputy Chairman and former President Dmitry Medvedev, and First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko, who also belongs to Putin’s “inner circle” and is currently in charge of the Donbas operations in the war.
According to a source, Kiriyenko can cross the ‘red line,’ meaning he’s one of the few people to wake Putin with a phone call. Furthermore, a Facebook post in March by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine mentioned that several Russian political elites regard the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), Alexander Bortnikov, to be Putin’s successor. “It is noteworthy that Bortnikov has recently fallen out of favour with the Russian dictator. The official reason for the disgrace of the head of the FSB — fatal miscalculations in the war against Ukraine,” it added.
#KREMLIN #May9th: The young man with whom #Putin had a long & frank conversation on Red Square is the head of the presidential administration department, Dmitry Kovalev (unconfirmed at this time). Rumors immediately began to swirl that he could be Putin's hand-picked #successor. pic.twitter.com/KIHXb8v2Iy
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) May 9, 2022
“It’s not that they want to overthrow Putin right now, or that they’re plotting a conspiracy, but there’s an understanding (or a wish) that he won’t be governing the state may be in the foreseeable future,” a source close to the Kremlin revealed. Nevertheless, rumours about Putin’s succession began when he was spotted having a conversation with 36-year-old Dmitry Kovalev during Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9. As per Telegram news channel Baza, Kovalev, who heads one of the departments within the Presidential Administration, could be Putin’s “handpicked successor.”
Though the Russian President has never spoken about stepping down from his post publicly, he did tell NBC last year that he was willing to support someone who “is committed to this country and is prepared to sacrifice his entire life to this country, not just some years, no matter his personal attitude to me.”
However, later that year, Putin told CNBC that he had not made any decision about his replacement, as such discussions tend to “destabilise” the country’s political system. “The situation must be safe and stable in order for power structures and state structures to work in a confident manner and look calmly towards the future,” he added. In this regard, Putin had signed a decree last year that allowed him to remain in power till 2036.
There are no sociological polls measuring Putin’s support among his most important demographic: Russia’s security and govt elites. But sources told Meduza that a clumsy, costly war is creating some trouble in paradise for the president. https://t.co/c1yCAyfv9K
— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) May 24, 2022
Kremlin officials are reportedly dissatisfied with Putin over the Ukraine invasion and the ensuing Western sanctions that have crippled the country’s economy. “Businesspeople and many cabinet members are unhappy that the president started this war without thinking through the scale of the sanctions. Normal life under these sanctions is impossible,” a source disclosed to Meduza, adding that no one in the Kremlin calculated the consequences of the European Union (EU) banning Russian energy imports. Putin and his aides have always called it an “empty threat” from the West. In fact, when Kaliningrad governor Anton Alikhanov lamented the weakening of the construction industry in his region due to the invasion, Putin asked him not to blame the “special military operation,” as the territory had been experiencing a recession for the past two years.
According to sources, Putin’s security elite are interested in “playing to win” by hopefully capturing Kyiv, and want to mobilise reserved conscripts. “They figure, since we’re entangled there already, there’s no going soft now. We need to go even harder,” the source added. However, another source argued, “The president screwed up, but he might still fix everything later, coming to some agreement [with Ukraine and the West].”
PS: I reported, Vladimir Putin has Parkinson’s disease and here you can see him gripping the table so that his shaking hand is not visible but he cannot stop his foot from tapping. https://t.co/BCRQzB9haP https://t.co/Yq2GbLxyfo
— Louise Mensch 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@LouiseMensch) April 21, 2022
Meanwhile, there has been increasing speculation about Putin’s health woes after a video of him sitting in a slouched position and gripping the table during a conference with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu went viral last month. In fact, earlier this month, New Lines magazine reported an anonymous Russian oligarch saying that the President was “very ill with blood cancer,” without the type of cancer being specified. The oligarch, who did not know that he was being secretly recorded, went on to express his frustration at the Ukraine war, saying, “The problem is with his head. […] One crazy guy can turn the whole world upside down.” However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has dismissed the cancer rumour as “fiction and untruth.”
Despite Peskov denying all the speculation, former British M16 Russia bureau chief Christopher Steele asserted that his Russian sources have confirmed that Putin is “seriously ill.” Furthermore, Ukrainian head of intelligence Kyrylo Budanov has claimed that the Russian leader is suffering from a “very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick,” without providing any evidence.
Is this just me or Putin really looks less healthy and sound with each and every day of the war?
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 21, 2022
I can see a drastic difference between now and late February.
Telegram channel General SVR, helmed by a former Russian intelligence officer, stated that Putin is slated to undergo surgery for an unspecified form of cancer soon and that his temporary replacement will be Nikolai Patrushev, the NSC’s secretary. Some have also argued that the televised meetings between Putin and his ministers from last week appear to be staged and pre-recorded to hide his week-long absence due to recovery from the surgery.
Sources have reportedly said that President Putin is being looked after by a team of 13 doctors and that his ongoing medical issues and treatments are the reason why he has reduced the frequency of his foreign visits. He last attended the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics in China this February before the start of the invasion, wherein he had also signed a “no limits” partnership with the Asian country.