On Monday, Ukrainian Governor of Luhansk province Serhiy Haidai revealed that the Russian forces are “getting ready for a full-scale offensive” in eastern Ukraine.
“We are seeing more and more (Russian) reserves being deployed in our direction, we are seeing more equipment being brought in,” he added, claiming that the Russians are not deploying “round-the-clock shelling anymore.”
Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai says that Russian shelling has subsided
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) February 6, 2023
A sign that Russia is storing up ammunition in preparation for a larger Donbas offensive
Haidai stressed that Moscow would most likely take 10 days to “gather reserves,” and could launch an attack any time after 15 February.
Russia Lacking Forces: UK
According to the UK Defence Intelligence’s daily briefing, Russian military have been trying to launch massive attacks to capture Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk since January. However, Russian forces have made less progress, owing to “lack [of] munitions and manoeuver units required for a successful offensive.”
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 7 February 2023
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) February 7, 2023
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/WPxtRJO9h3
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/a9JW1mHMLT
“It remains unlikely that Russia can build up the forces needed to substantially affect the outcome of the war within the coming weeks,” it reported.
Ukrainian Personnel Changes
In his nightly address on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that Kyiv plans to strengthen its “management positions,” especially on the border and in frontline regions, by “appointing managers with military experience” in positions within the local and central government.
Holding the line.
— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) February 7, 2023
Thank you all for your support, as well as constructive criticism. We draw conclusions.
We continue the reforms. Even during the war.
We are strengthening the defense and working for victory.
Glory to Ukraine!
However, he did not directly address the speculation about Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov being replaced by Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov on Monday.
War At Pivotal Juncture
The Luhansk governor’s claim comes against the backdrop of Ukrainian forces planning a major attack during spring to retake territory captured by Russia. However, Kyiv continues to wait for Western long-range weaponry and modern tanks to aid its war effort.
However, analysts believe that Ukraine will possibly hold a defensive position in Donetsk for 60-75 days, which is the time required for supplying tanks, training, “and getting everything outfitted.”
In mid-December, when we quoted General Zaluzhny as warning of a Russian offensive sometime between January and March (see below), there was considerable scepticism. Now clear signs there is going to be some sort of Russian push, however ineffectual it may prove. https://t.co/QQIpFkr5iP
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 6, 2023
The war is currently at a pivotal juncture, with the Ukrainian forces no longer able to sustain last year’s momentum, while Russian troops prepare for a “symbolic” attack to mark one year since the war began.