The assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe on July 8 led to an outpouring of grief from across the world, particularly from allies in the Indo-Pacific, where Abe is seen as one of the pioneers behind the movement for a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP). In particular, he is seen as the mastermind behind the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, better known as the Quad, between Japan, India, Australia, and the United States (US).
Abe first introduced the idea for the Quad in 2006, when he briefly became the PM of Japan for the first time. On a state visit to India, the leader delivered a historic address to the Indian Parliament, famously known as the “Confluence of Two Seas.” It was in this speech that the leader outlined his security vision for the highly volatile Indo-Pacific, wherein he made a push for greater Indian involvement in international fora and in shaping regional security.
In his speech, Abe outlined a plan for the creation of an “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” along the periphery of the Eurasian continent. “This “broader Asia” will evolve into an immense network spanning the entirety of the Pacific Ocean, incorporating the United States of America and Australia. Open and transparent, this network will allow people, goods, capital, and knowledge to flow freely,” he said.
Bodyguards could have saved Shinzo Abe if they removed him from the line of fire in the 2.5 seconds between a missed first shot and a second round of gunfire that fatally wounded him, according to security experts who reviewed footage of the assassination https://t.co/iqRaIhT8jZ pic.twitter.com/k4SlDcedzH
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 19, 2022
Abe reasoned that the selection of the four countries was significant because of their shared fundamental values, such as “freedom, democracy, and the respect for basic human rights.” Apart from this, Abe said the Arc would help fulfil collective strategic interests of security, as all participants are maritime states with “vital interests in the security” of “the most critical” shipping routes.
However, despite the grand collective security vision, the timing for the grouping was not quite right and the idea faced pushback from all three states and from the broader international community. The realisation of Abe’s vision was impeded by the fact that China was and continues to be an indispensable trade partner of each Quad member.
.@AlboMP and @SenatorWong have paid their respects to Shinzo Abe during a meeting with the Japanese Ambassador in Canberra to sign a condolence book for the long-serving leader. #TheLatest #7NEWS pic.twitter.com/vLvyok9EHS
— 7NEWS Adelaide (@7NewsAdelaide) July 11, 2022
In fact, in 2008, under pressure from Beijing, Australia hurriedly withdrew from the agreement to honour its Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China. Other members also made significant overtures to pacify Chinese concerns about the motives of the grouping. For example, former Indian PM Manmohan Singh clarified that the Quad had “no security implication.” Other leaders also joined the Indian leader in downplaying the importance of the grouping in order to placate the indispensable economic powerhouse.
Even the US has attempted to take focus away from the military possibilities of the grouping and instead has focused on its peacekeeping aims. “The Quad is not a security or military partnership. [The Quad’s] purpose is to advance cooperation on key priorities in specific sectors that is consistent with international law and promotes our shared values and underpins peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” a State Department spokesperson said early this year.
RIP Shinzo Abe🙏🇺🇸🇯🇵 pic.twitter.com/jqfmQu0i3h
— Dan Scavino Jr.🇺🇸🦅 (@DanScavino) July 12, 2022
However, China’s increasing territorial aggressiveness—in the East and South China seas, its border with India, and across the Indo-Pacific at large—have led India, Australia, and the US to take a more assertive stance.
To display this intent, the leaders resuscitated the grouping with the 2017 meeting in Manila along the sidelines of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit during Abe’s second term as PM.
Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has now overtly stated India hopes to use the Quad to contain China and create a multipolar Asia.
Watch: Upper house of Indian Parliament, Rajya Sabha observes a moment of silence in memory of Japan's Shinzo Abe, UAE's Zayed Al Nahyan & Kenya's Mwai Kibaki. pic.twitter.com/1MSimYqma2
— Sidhant Sibal (@sidhant) July 18, 2022
Similarly, Australia, whose relations with China soured significantly during the Scott Morrison administration, has explicitly recognised the importance of the grouping. During an online briefing last September, then-PM Morrison said, “India and Australia consider it as something that needs to be balanced in relation to China,” Morrison said.
In fact, even Donald Trump, who was known for his rejection of multilateralism, saw value in the grouping. As part of his anti-China policies, his administration called on the group to collaborate against China’s “exploitation, coercion, and corruption.” Likewise, the new administration under President Joe Biden held the Quad’s second in-person meeting in May this year.
A month later, the quartet jointly participated in the Malabar naval exercises.
India, US and Australia issued a rare joint statement to mourn the ex-Japan prime minister's death. The 3 members of 4 nations bloc QUAD have condemned Shinzo Abe's assassination. pic.twitter.com/LVS0B0M2zW
— Hindustan Times (@htTweets) July 9, 2022
Against this backdrop, China may be worried that its initial prediction that the Quad was merely a “headline-grabbing idea” that would “soon dissipate” like “sea foam in the ocean” could have been misguided.
Despite China’s pushback and members’ internal hesitancy, the Quad seems to be far from dissipating. Instead, its influence and relevance have only grown. In September 2021, members held their first in-person meeting at the White House after President Joe Biden took office, wherein they spoke of the group’s potential to become a “force for global good” and facilitate a FOIP.
As China’s aggression in the region grows, so does the relevance and need for the Quad’s engagement in the region. Following Abe’s death, leaders of Quad member nations paid tribute to the group’s founder through a joint statement and expressed intention to carry forward his vision and work. Expressing shock at the former PM’s “tragic assassination,” The Quad leaders said Abe wasn’t just “a transformative leader for Japan” but also “for Japanese relations with each one of our countries,” hailing his “formative role” in the formation of their grouping and advancing the “shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.” “We will honour Prime Minister Abe’s memory by redoubling our work towards a peaceful and prosperous region,” they concluded.
Therefore, while Japan’s longest-serving leader may have passed away, his legacy lives on through the mechanisms he set up in pursuance of safer high seas.