Pro-China leader Mohamed Muizzu emerged victorious in the Maldives’ presidential elections, ousting incumbent pro-India President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih.
The election results are expected to have far-reaching consequences on India-Maldives ties as Muizzu hails from former President Yameen’s People’s National Congress party, which was behind the “India-Out” campaign.
The Results
Muizzu, 45, who served as the mayor of the capital, Male, will succeed Solih.
The election results came out on Sunday, with Muizzu’s People’s National Congress-Progressive Party of Maldives (PNC-PPM) coalition winning around 54% of votes and defeating Solih’s Maldivian Democratic Party.
Mohamed Muizzu’s Maldives presidential election win is a setback for India, a boost for China and a sign of tensions in the Indian Ocean region, say analysts https://t.co/LBlfdDIj9i pic.twitter.com/yBGFF0SkLU
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 2, 2023
The archipelago nation returned to polls on 30 September after neither of the top presidential candidates could secure more than 50% of votes. In the first round of elections, Muizzu secured a lead by securing 46% votes against Solih’s 39%.
Muizzu Takes Dig at India
While Muizzu has asserted that his foreign policy would be ‘Pro-Maldives,’ his win has caused commotion in India, as the new president has close links to the pro-China camp.
In his first remarks in an event at the Social Centre after the results, Muizzu took a veiled dig at India, saying, “Today the people made a strong decision to win back Maldives independence.”
The new President-elect asserted no foreign soldiers would remain in Maldives against the wishes of the country’s people, and said that he would commence efforts to remove all foreign soldiers from the archipelago on the first day of his office.
Muizzu’s Anti-India, Pro-China Legacy
The newly elected president was a minister of housing and infrastructure during the reign of former President Abdulla Yameen.
With Yameen serving an 11-year prison term and being barred from contesting the elections, Muizzu ran the elections as Yameen’s proxy.
As Yameen’s protégé, Muizzu carries forward Yameen’s anti-India legacy, evident in his election campaign centred around the promise of ousting any foreign power from the country.
Under Yameen’s rule, a souring of ties between Male and New Delhi took place, with growing closeness to China and the anti-India protests further fuelling the animosity.
The country also participated in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and Chinese funding reached almost $1.5 billion during his regime.
“India-First” and “India-Out” Campaigns
While Yameen oversaw the deteriorating ties between India and Maldives, Solih attempted to reset the tilt.
However, the opposition saw India’s ties with the Maldives as an assault on Male’s sovereignty. This caused Muizzu’s party to launch the “India-Out” campaign in October 2020.
The campaign was focused on the removal of unarmed Indian personnel who had been stationed on the island at the request of the Maldivian government to assist in training the Maldivian defence forces. Muizzu’s comments following the victory are in line with this sentiment.
To counter this, 61-year-old Solih adopted the “India-first” policy and banned the India-Out campaign.
This is how the domestic election’s mandate snowballed into a referendum on Maldivian foreign policy.
Congratulations and greetings to @MMuizzu on being elected as President of the Maldives.
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) October 1, 2023
India remains committed to strengthening the time-tested India-Maldives bilateral relationship and enhancing our overall cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region.
India-Maldives Ties
Indian PM Narendra Modi congratulated Muizzu on his win.
New Delhi and Male share a close, cordial and multidimensional relationship traditionally.
India became the first country to establish diplomatic ties with the island nation following its independence in 1965.
The country also holds geostrategic importance for India, located less than 2,000 km from India on the main shipping route between the East and the West.
Amid Beijing’s increasing belligerence in the Indian Ocean region, New Delhi has built a solid economic, defence and development relationship with Male.
Experts say that India’s treatment of minorities was leveraged by the winning parties to sow seeds of discontentment against India.
While Muizzu’s victory is expected to reverse Solih’s pro-India policy, it would be in the best interest of India to tread with a balanced approach to avoid losing a strategically important friend in the Indian Ocean.