In a shocking report released late on Sunday, Politico cited two unnamed United States (US) officials “familiar with the issue” as claiming that US intelligence has uncovered an Iranian government assassination plot against Washington’s Ambassador to South Africa. Alleging that the Iranian Embassy in Pretoria is in on the plot, the American government official reportedly said that US officials have been wary of the threat to Ambassador Lana Marks since spring.
The report posits the theory that Iran is hell-bent on avenging the January assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, who was taken out by a US airstrike in Baghdad. It claims that Iran is constantly seeking ways to retaliate against Trump’s decision to kill the powerful general, which is the opposite of the effect that the move aimed at achieving. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, at the time of the attack, said that Washington ordered Soleimani’s killing as a deterrent in its fight with Tehran.
However, the two anonymous officials were unaware of why Tehran would target South Africa-born 66-year-old Marks, a former fashion designer. The report revealed that Marks has been close friends with President Donald Trump for over 20 years and was a part of his Florida Mar-a-Lago club, only to be sworn in as the US Ambassador to South Africa last October. While the officials claim that the American intelligence community is not sure why Tehran would pick on Marks, especially since she barely has any links to the country, they are not ruling out the possibility that she was picked due to her closeness to the President.
The report also states that Iran has “clandestine networks” in South Africa, citing news reports from 2015 that revealed leaked intelligence papers detailing secret networks of Iranian operatives in the country. The officials also told Politico that it is possible that Marks was chosen since she is an easier target than diplomats in the Western world, with whom the US has stronger relations in terms of local intelligence and law enforcement.
Tehran has strongly denied all of these claims. Saeed Khatibzadeh, a spokesperson for the Iranian foreign affairs ministry, deemed the Politico report as “hackneyed and worn-out… anti-Iran propaganda”. In his statement, he said that it was Washington and not Iran who had turned into a “rogue regime in the international arena, particularly in the recent years,” referring to its deviation from international laws and norms, including the assassination of Soleimani.
Further, foreign policy experts also are skeptical of the accuracy and validity of the report and have cautioned that judgments must be made after all sides have spoken on the issue. The Jerusalem Post’s Seth Frantzman argues that the accusations are far too serious to receive quick reactions and that it is highly unlikely that Tehran would risk worsening its conflict with the US by attacking its ambassador in a third-party country at the risk of its own international isolation. While most states tolerate the Iranian regime’s actions and threats with amnesty, they also believe that the country has some limits to what it will carry out, Frantzman writes, because Tehran is well aware that its military and navy are no match for their American counterparts. Instead, they resort to asymmetric warfare like drones, missiles, IEDs, and mines to harass Americans, especially those still stationed in Iraq. Ultimately, Frantzman believes that Iran does not and has never wanted a real war, but has only continued to harass American troops in the region due to its judgment that Trump will shy away from confrontation due to his fear of elongating the Middle East’s “endless wars”.
So far, the US Embassy in Pretoria has not commented on the report or claims that intelligence is aware of any assassination plans against Marks. South Africa’s Minister of State Security Ayanda Dlodlo said that the controversy is being met with necessary governmental attention and that the country’s State Security Agency is coordinating with relevant domestic and international partners “to ensure that no harm will be suffered by the US Ambassador, including any other Diplomatic Officials inside the borders of our country.”
On the other hand, President Trump has reacted predictably by posting a harsh reaction on Twitter, where he has vowed to retaliate “1,000 times greater in magnitude” against any violent moves by Iran.
According to press reports, Iran may be planning an assassination, or other attack, against the United States in retaliation for the killing of terrorist leader Soleimani, which was carried out for his planning a future attack, murdering U.S. Troops, and the death & suffering...
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 15, 2020
...caused over so many years. Any attack by Iran, in any form, against the United States will be met with an attack on Iran that will be 1,000 times greater in magnitude!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 15, 2020