It has been exactly a year since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government abrogated Articles 370 and 35A, thus rolling back the constitutional provisions that guaranteed autonomy to the people of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). A much-awaited electoral promise by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the unilateral decision to end not only the autonomous governance, but also the statehood of the highly volatile and contested region was carried out with the intention of ‘freeing’ its people, encouraging development, and ending corruption and terrorism at the frontiers. And, even if we put aside, just for a minute, the several rights abuses hurled at the Kashmiri people after this move—such as the detention of local political leadership, the never-ending draconian lockdowns and internet blackouts, and the lives and property lost as people struggle to find a new normal to live by—has the government even come close to what it set out to achieve?
A lot has been written in the past year about the Modi government’s subliminal assertion of Hindutva politics and how it has changed the national narrative. Soon after the nation came to terms with the idea of two new Union Territories being added to the map—with pending cases that haven’t yet been heard at the country’s highest court—the Centre passed the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in conjunction with the National Register of Citizens (NRC) that threatened the legal status of Muslim migrants across the country. The ensuing protests and clashes across the country—halted only due to the pandemic—saw the respawning of communal violence in the country, especially in the national capital and the Hindi heartland. But, while the Centre has been able to manage its perceptions well among the rest of the country, those continuing to live in J&K and Ladakh tell a different story.
Through 2019, the Prime Minister held several talks with top businessmen—even internationally—to boost development in the UTs, citing the abrogation of Article 370 as a tool by which all this would be possible. This is despite the fact that, prior to 5 August last year, J&K was far ahead of several other states on several development indicators, including poverty, human development, and equitable education. However, the lockdown over the past year has severely impeded people’s access to education, livelihood, and information far before the pandemic struck, significantly worsening these indicators, especially in the Kashmir Valley. In a recent report, the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) revealed that the economic losses caused to the Valley are estimated at a whopping INR 40,000 crore. This number indicates a drop of 50% in the erstwhile state’s economic output just over the past year.
On the other side, in Ladakh, where the UT status was warmly welcomed in August 2019, sentiments over the months have changed as well. The local BJP government has lived up to its promise of budgeting new educational institutions and beginning new infrastructure projects, but the people of the region have begun to raise new concerns. For example, Sonam Wangchuk, one of the country’s foremost innovators and the head of the Students’ Educational and Cultural Movement of Ladakh, who had welcomed Modi’s decision to make Ladakh a UT, has raised alarm about whether the region’s biodiversity and the rights of indigenous people would continue to remain protected under the Constitution’s sixth schedule. “The fear is that if Ladakh becomes a free-for-all, people will come with their industries and tourism,” he told The Wire. He expressed his concern for an increase in the population of the area, which is currently home to 300,000 people, stating that if “tenfold” the number of people live there, “it will undo the culture”.
In the wake of new domicile laws in J&K, this sentiment has carried on. While several people in the Valley believe that the new rules are designed to alter the demography of the territory, those in Jammu are highly apprehensive of the population influx from bordering areas. So far, the Centre has issued 400,000 fresh domicile certificates, 75% of which have been in Jammu.
Interestingly, Wangchuk has also been a prominent voice in the ‘Boycott China’ movement, which is the product of yet another unprecedented (but rather predictable) reignition of tensions along the country’s frontier with China in Eastern Ladakh. In August 2019, Home Minister Amit Shah declared in Parliament that his government would “bring back Aksai Chin even at the cost of our lives”, making public India’s intention to change the status quo decided upon in 1962. As of now, it has also been reported that the ongoing standoff between Indian forces and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which has led to the death of several Indian soldiers, has precipitated a drastic fall in Modi’s popularity in Ladakh.
Therefore, it is hardly surprising that India’s most adversarial neighbours, Pakistan and China, have continued to build a strong alliance and tried to internationalize the Kashmir issue at the United Nations Security Council several times. It also comes as no surprise that India’s partner at its most porous border, Nepal, is also securing its interests by siding with the Chinese. In fact, the move in Kashmir and the widespread liberal media coverage on it across the world has drawn condemnation from across the Arab world, spare Riyadh. Bangladeshi premier Sheikh Hasina, too, has refused to comment on the matter entirely.
But has the Modi government solved its most pressing problem in the region—insurgency and terrorism? In a press conference in June, senior army and police officers said that in the past year and a half, more than 100 militants have been neutralized, marking the “most peaceful” times in J&K and the most successful months in terms of law and order and anti-terrorism efforts in the region. More than 50 of these terrorists were from the Hizbul Mujahideen, and 20 each were from Lashkar-e-Taiba and JeM, with the others coming from fringe elements and small outfits like Ansar Gazwatul Hind and Al-Badr, according to Director General of J&K Police, Dilbag Singh. Singh also insinuated that by conducting around half a dozen successful operations in Jammu and neutralizing a dozen terrorists there, the area is well under control.
But weeding out terrorists is not enough. According to some reports, the brutal treatment of Kashmiri lives and the revocation of internet access post-abrogation of Article 370 has merely pushed more young people to take up arms and fight for separatist powers. Therefore, while the Indian government is busy trying to stop cross-border insurgency from across its North-Western border, its communications blockades are brewing breeding grounds for further militancy, as noted by Kriti M. Shah of the Observer Research Foundation. Chief of Defence Staff Bipin Rawat's proposal to introduce 'deradicalization' camps was also noted with a pinch of salt as international media compared the idea to the Uighur Muslim camps in China. Rehabilitative experts caution against 'deradicalization' attempts along political and ideological lines, deeming them as ineffective. Rather, radical actors should be supported with psychological counseling, as well as the provision of alternative employment opportunities and the space for upward social mobility that may provide them incentives to change.
Most recently, it has been found that due to a dire lack of reportage, the number of coronavirus cases in Kashmir is actually far higher than those being reported in official numbers. Due to the uncertainty of the internet and the shortage of high-speed connections—only outdated 2G is available in most parts—doctors are struggling to keep online medical records or consult with patients via video. Students and educators alike are facing several hurdles in accessing classroom streams due to unreliable networks. And apart from the health and education sectors, which are the most basic functionalities, startups and businesses have also been hit hard, with almost 80% of those employed losing their jobs due to a lack of work-from-home internet access. Then again, cutting off Kashmir and Kashmiris from the Indian mainstream while garnering nationalist support for its territorial integrity seems to be the only win that the Modi government has been able to walk away with thus far.
In this vein, it certainly isn’t any coincidence that the Centre has chosen today as the day to celebrate the bhoomi pujan and inauguration of the new Ram temple in Ayodhya, a site that has been long-contested among Hindu and Muslim leaders since the Babri mosque was razed to the ground in 1992. The Modi government is known for creating grand spectacles, and there is no better time to distract the public one than at a time when they can be easily held accountable for their landslide of failures in the two new UTs. And as the nation celebrates the erection of the new mandir on the day that a people lost their freedom, Kashmiri voices and leadership continue to be silenced under new curfews.
Despite the stringent & unofficial curfew, a handful of PDP workers managed to stage a protest in Srinagar today.The number might seem insignificant but symbolises how tough it is for the people of J&K to peacefully protest. pic.twitter.com/Tb6vgm0el7
— Mehbooba Mufti (@MehboobaMufti) August 5, 2020
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