Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. was sworn in as the Philippines’ new President on June 30, replacing Rodrigo Dutere to take the country’s highest office. A career politician, the 64-year-old Marcos Jr. has served as a governor, congressman, and senator. His six-year presidency is expected to be somewhat of an extension of the presidency of outgoing leader Rodrigo Duterte, whose hardline approach helped him gain popularity and rapidly consolidate power. While Duterte was open in his affinity for China, the incoming president notably made no mention of how he will deal with China in his inaugural address In fact, Bongbong, who won almost 59% of the vote, made no mention of his foreign policy strategy at all.
Yet, in the days leading up to his campaign, the 64-year-old hinted that he would take a strong approach against Beijing by upholding the 2016 international ruling against its claims in the disputed SCS. “We have a very important ruling in our favour and we will use it to continue to assert our territorial rights. It is not a claim. It is already our territorial right,” he asserted.
This attitude was once again reflected last May, when Beijing imposed a unilateral fishing ban in their disputed waters. Marcos said that the Philippines’ sovereignty was “sacred” and the country “will not compromise it in any way.” He asserted that as leader he would tackle the dispute with China with a “firm voice” and would not cede a “single millimetre of our maritime coastal rights.”
China is willing to be a good neighbor and partner of Philippines, and elevate bilateral cooperation and start a "golden era" of bilateral relations, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. pic.twitter.com/unh0OqnWrx
— Zhang Meifang张美芳 (@CGMeifangZhang) July 8, 2022
In fact, Marcos was adamant that he would be a “pro-Philippines” leader and not undermine the country’s sovereignty, “I don’t work for Washington, D.C., I don’t work for Beijing. I work for the Philippines,” he said.
However, now that he is in office, Marcos Jr. is doing what most expected him to do all along—appeasing the Asian giant to safeguard his government’s own self-interests.
At first glance, it appears that the new leader will follow Duterte’s steps, given that after Chinese President Xi Jinping called to congratulate him on his landslide victory, Marcos Jr. said that Manila’s diplomatic relations with Beijing are “set to shift to a higher gear.” For his part, Xi said his administration is “willing to work with” the new president and “add a new chapter to the China-Philippines friendship and cooperation.”
When Vice President Wang Qishan attended Marcos Jr.’s inauguration ceremony, the president-elect hailed the longevity of the two countries' bilateral ties. “China is the strongest partner of the Philippines,” Marcos declared. He assured that his administration “attaches great importance to the relations with China” and is “ready to engage in Belt and Road cooperation to a greater extent,” jointly resolve regional challenges, and “elevate bilateral relations to new heights.”
FM’s visit to the Philippines shows China attaches great importance to bilateral ties in the era of Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr.; the visit will pave the way for a future meeting between the countries’ top leaders: analysts pic.twitter.com/AKQg8suKHy
— Zhang Meifang张美芳 (@CGMeifangZhang) July 5, 2022
Marcos Jr. made his willingness to work with Beijing on their territorial disputes even more obvious when he hosted Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Manila last week. Marcos stressed that his country “pursues an independent foreign policy of peace.” Pledging support for the one-China principle, he went on to clarify that the South China Sea (SCS) issue is “not the mainstream of the Philippines-China relationship and should not restrict or hinder bilateral cooperation.” To this end, he said that Manila would “carry out candid communication” with Beijing in order to “find a friendly solution to the issue.” Marcos voiced that it was “the right way for the two countries to get along with each other,” in sharp contrast to the more combative tone he employed on the campaign trail.
In fact, this is the same approach Marcos Jr. has followed for the majority of his political career, as the Marcos family has a long history of maintaining warm ties with Beijing. His father and former dictator of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos was among the first pro-United States (US) leaders to establish formal diplomatic relations with Maoist China. Even decades after the family’s fall from the precipice, the Marcoses maintained regular commercial and political ties with the superpower as part of the Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI).
Following in his father’s footsteps, Marcos Jr. has remained friendly with China throughout his career. During his tenure as the governor of the Ilocos Norte province, Marcos Jr. reportedly “frequently” visited China in 2005 and 2006 “to drum up business.” Chinese investors also visited the province in search of lucrative business opportunities. In fact, in 2007, Beijing announced the opening of a consulate in the province’s capital, Laoag City, after intense lobbying by Marcos himself. More recently, when the leader’s nephew was elected governor of Ilocos Norte, China’s Shandong province donated medical supplies to the province.
LOOK: A day before the country marks the 6th year anniversary of its historic arbitral victory at The Hague over China in the West Philippine Sea, members of the West Philippine Sea Coalition (WPSC) called on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. pic.twitter.com/JC2j11ZiG8
— Manila Bulletin News (@manilabulletin) July 11, 2022
Keeping this in mind, the new leader has been vocal about being inclined to engage in bilateral talks under Beijing’s conditions. “That arbitration is no longer an arbitration if there’s only one party. So, it’s no longer available to us … bilateral agreement is what we are left with,” Marcos Jr. noted. He has also been quoted to have said: “If you let the US come in, you make China your enemy. I think we can come to an agreement (with China). As a matter of fact, people from the Chinese embassy are my friends. We have been talking about that.”
Against this backdrop, Manila-based policy adviser Richard Javad Heydarian reckons, “As president, Marcos Jr. will actively court large-scale Chinese investment in order to fund his ambitious infrastructure development initiative and boost economic growth after five quarters of recession during 2020 and 2021.”
There are, however, a multitude of factors that will direct the new government’s relations with China. At the top of this list is how Marcos engages with Washington. It has been reported that Marcos has discussed the possible extension or “re-signing” of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with a top US diplomat. If he does extend the VFA, it will become apparent to Beijing that the new government is on the fence when it comes to its loyalties.
That being said, this would not represent a drastic change from the Duterte government, which also tilted towards China while still maintaining amicable ties with the US. In fact, the now-former president repeatedly threatened to repeal the VFA during his rule but ultimately restored it last July, in an indication of the indispensability of the Agreement and indeed the US to the Philippines.
Therefore, while Marcos has promised to put the Philippines first, this invariably entails abandoning the assertive approach he promised in the lead-up to his electoral victory. As things stand, the Philippines has little to no manoeuvrability in its ties with both China and the US. Therefore, in a rapidly evolving regional security and economic environment in which China has become increasingly aggressive, one can only assume it is simply a matter of time before Marcos echoes his predecessor’s proclamation: “China is already in possession of the South China Sea.”