The Pentagon’s latest annual assessment of the Chinese military capabilities states that the country’s rapid expansion, diversification, and modernization of its nuclear forces points to a potential doubling of its arsenal in the next decade, which could include warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of threatening the United States (US).
The report suggests that Beijing has already made major progress in areas such as shipbuilding, development of ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defense systems. This puts it at the cusp of achieving a “triad” of the sea-, land-, and air-based delivery systems. Though the document asserts that the buildup and China’s massive military spending will not bring the country anywhere close to the US’ nuclear force numbers, it shows Beijing’s ambitions to build a world-class military to show off Chinese modernity along with taking up a more dominant power posture in the Asia-Pacific region.
The evaluation comes amid one of the tensest periods in US-China relations in decades. Since the beginning of this year, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly blamed China for unleashing the coronavirus on the world. The two nations also continue to lock heads over China’s aggression in the South China Sea, the use of 5G technologies, the new national security law in Hong Kong, the treatment of minorities in Xinjiang, and security measures in Tibet. Further, China has resisted engaging in arms control talks with Russia and the United States ahead of the expiration of the New START nuclear pact in February 2021.
The possibility of China developing a nuclear triad could increase the long-term stakes in the US-China relationship, and encourage US officials that support America modernizing its own nuclear forces. However, experts have argued that the report takes more of an “alarmist view” and that the administration’s estimate of the size of China’s warhead stockpile is exaggerated. They stress that Russia’s arsenal is “much larger and more dangerous”.
The report also notes that China now has the world’s largest navy, with approximately 350 ships and submarines, as compared to the US’ 293. Additionally, it states that China “has more than 1,250 ground-launched ballistic missiles (GLBMs) and ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs) with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers”. The report said that, in 2019, Beijing “launched more ballistic missiles for testing and training than the rest of the world combined”.
China’s military modernization has raised concerns among nations of its intentions, especially with regards to Taiwan. Consequently, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper suggested this week that likeminded nations in the Pacific, such as India, Australia, and Japan could form a NATO-like alliance to deter Chinese aggression.
New Pentagon Report Warns of Chinese Nuclear Weapons Buildup
The document states that China will double its nuclear arsenal in the next decade, which could include ICBMs capable of threatening the United States.
September 2, 2020
SOURCE: US NAVAL INSTITUTE (USNI)