As Ukraine approaches a crucial phase of its conflict with Russia, US and NATO officials are uniting behind an approach to strengthen Ukrainian defences and working to safeguard the nation’s future sovereignty. US President Joe Biden and other Western leaders have compared it to the current security framework in Israel.
The gruelling struggle for Bakhmut has dominated recent months of the conflict. According to reports, Russian mercenary company Wagner captured the Ukrainian city over the weekend.
Overview
Polish President Andrzej Duda stated in an interview with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that an Israeli-style security agreement for Ukraine would prioritise arms transfers and advanced technology. Discussions on the subject took place during Biden’s visit to Warsaw in February.
“The discussions on this one are going on right now,” added Duda, one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters in its struggle against the Russian invasion. While Duda did not specify what weapons or technology might be delivered to Ukraine under the arrangement, Poland has already provided Kyiv with Soviet MiG-29 fighter planes and other defence equipment.
According to Western sources engaged in the discussions, this security pact would be tied to moving Ukraine towards a potential future membership in NATO, while avoiding making the US-led alliance an accomplice to any conflict with Russia.
Last week, Biden assured his G7 counterparts that the US would fund the training of Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 planes, a significant move towards supplying the American-made fighters.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko warned on Saturday that supplying F-16 fighter planes to Ukraine will worsen the current situation. “We can see that Western countries continue to stick to an escalation scenario, which carries enormous risks for them,” he told Russia’s state news agency TASS.
🛡 NATO countries, in particular the USA, are considering providing security guarantees to Ukraine by analogy with Israel — this may happen after the summer summit of the Alliance in Vilnius. So far, there are ongoing discussions about exactly what this "Israeli model" should be. pic.twitter.com/31jiMmwuKf
— ZMiST (@ZMiST_Ua) May 22, 2023
The US’ Role
The push for a security agreement comes as the West steps up its support for Kyiv, including the supply of tanks, high-end American and German-made air-defence systems, and increased production of shells and ammunition needed on the front lines — all as part of billions of dollars in Western military aid aimed at ensuring that Ukraine determines its own future.
WSJ reports that the concept for Ukraine’s continued NATO membership is based on the Kyiv Security “Compact” from September 2022, drafted by a working group led by Andrii Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, and Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary general. The Kyiv Security Compact-based security agreement is expected to be signed after the NATO meeting.
Yermak made the following statement to WSJ: “Ukraine needs ironclad and lasting security guarantees.” He said such assurances would have to be in place until his nation joined NATO.
American officials stated that negotiations concerning the “Israeli model” of security for Ukraine are taking place, although there are no specifics. The plan, which would involve a series of bilateral assurances within a multilateral framework, was said to be approved in principle by senior officials in several European capitals, including Paris and Berlin.
Fabrice Pothier, a former NATO policy chief, stated that the European NATO members would participate in the security arrangements, with the US acting as the primary guarantor.
The #UnitedStates can act as the main guarantor in the agreements on the security of #Ukraine with the participation of #NATO members in the EU, writes The Wall Street Journal. pic.twitter.com/We2SYIPmMP
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 22, 2023
Is Israel’s Security Agreement Applicable to the Ukraine Context?
Israel is not a member of NATO, and the US is not bound by a treaty to assist the country. However, Israel maintained special ties with the US for decades as Washington’s most reliable partner in the Middle East, and it is also the largest cumulative beneficiary of US foreign assistance since World War II.
The US’ support to Israel is outlined in 10-year accords, the most recent of which pledge Washington to pay $38 billion in military aid between 2019 and 2028.
The “Israel Model” has been proposed as a strategy for long-term Ukrainian security. Agreement would include consenting to contribute a specific amount of annual military funding and a moral obligation to protect the country if required. Additionally, such a pact could be provided bilaterally or multilaterally.
The security situation in Israel is very different from that of Ukraine. Israel’s conventional military is potentially capable of defeating any combination of hostile neighbours. It has treaties and informal agreements with most of its neighbours, which adds to its security. Israel manufactures its advanced weapons. Additionally, it possesses a nuclear deterrent force that guarantees its complete safety.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has none of these assets. Its conventional defence requirements significantly outnumber those of Israel. While assurances of substantial yearly military funding would benefit Ukraine, the “Israel Model” by itself is unlikely to guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security.