Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has hailed the victory of the PSUV-GPP coalition, who secured 67% of the votes, in the country’s parliamentary election as a “great victory for democracy and the country’s constitution”. This gives the ruling government control over the national legislature—which had been under the control of the Juan Guaidó-led opposition since 2015—from 2021 to 2026.
Once over 80% of the ballots were counted, the nation’s Electoral Council declared the PSUV-GPP coalition the winners, noting that they had secured 5.2 million votes, or 67.6% of the total vote count. The election, however, has drawn alarm and suspicion over its legitimacy, as only 31% of 20 million eligible voters took part. This was driven in large part by the fact that Guaidó—who anointed himself as the interim president on January 2019 and is recognized by over 60 countries as the legitimate leader of the country—led calls for a boycott of the ‘fraudulent’ election. At the same time, over five million Venezuelans have emigrated from the country due to rising inflation, unemployment, and crime, and fuel, medicinal, and food shortages.
The 227-seat National Assembly was the last opposition stronghold in the country, with Maduro already having control over the judicial and executive branches, as well as the military. This gave Guaidó and company the ability to influence the legislative arm of the country, which passes laws and approves the national budget. As per the constitution, the National Assembly must approve any international treaties and contracts with foreign companies, giving the body significant influence on the country’s economy and foreign investment. Aside from giving Maduro total control over all of the state’s institutions, the latest results are also sure to do damage to Guaidó’s claims of being the interim president given that this title was given to him based on his position as the leader of the National Assembly.
In the aftermath of his party’s victory, Maduro delivered a televised address to the nation, saying, “We have recovered the National Assembly with the majority vote of the Venezuelan people.”
The results have already been rejected by multiple international actors. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described the election as a “fraud” and a “sham”. His comments were echoed by the UK Foreign Office, Chilean Foreign Affairs Minister Andrés Allamand, and Colombian President Iván Duque. The European Union (EU) and the Organisation of American States (OAS) have also voiced their opposition, with the former refusing to send election observers well in advance of December over concerns about “credibility, transparency, and inclusiveness”.
Guaidó, for his part, told his supporters: “Although I cannot promise a magic solution today, I can tell you with certainty and security: You are not alone. We will not give up. We are going to give everything until we win.” In fact, the opposition leader has instead called for a popular referendum from December 7 to 12 in which he plans to ask the population whether they recognise the results of the election and whether they want Maduro to remain in power.
Claims of electoral fraud do appear to be well placed. In June, Venezuela’s Supreme Court unilaterally swore in a new commission to the country’s National Electoral Council ahead of the parliamentary elections this month. Currently, the opposition holds a majority of seats in the congress, which is the only branch of government that is not under President Maduro’s control. A few days later, Supreme Court also ordered the takeover of two opposition parties, the Justice First party and the Democratic Action party, as part of what it described as a “necessary restructuring process”.
However, Maduro retains the support of powerful allies such as Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Ecuador. Russian election observers, for example, noted that Venezuela “now has a legitimate National Assembly”.
This result is also expected to erode the effectiveness of US sanctions, given that the opposition no longer has as big of an influence over foreign investment. The Maduro administration appears to have been preparing for this outcome as well. In October, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez unveiled the newly approved constitutional anti-blockade law that seeks to limit the economic damage wrought by US sanctions by offering new avenues to protect foreign investment in the oil, gas, mining, agriculture, and tourism industries. The announcement appeared to suggest that Venezuela will provide labor and tax incentives to incentivize foreign investment, while also increasing the use of its crypto-currency, the petromoneda, to escape financial persecution.
There is a growing realization among international investors that, despite heavy international pressure and the recognition of opposition leader Guaidó as the legitimate interim leader of the country, a change in government may be becoming increasingly unlikely. The latest results from the parliamentary elections will only serve to cement this line of thinking. Hence, this may cause investors to flock back to Venezuela, as evidenced by the fact that foreign investors had already begun buying Venezuelan bonds prior to the election, even though these bonds had “not been serviced in nearly three years”. Furthermore, Venezuelan oil exports tripled in November despite heavy US sanctions on state-owned oil company PDVSA.
Against this backdrop of political stagnation, however, citizens in Venezuela are only growing more desperate. The International Monetary Fund has forecasted that the Venezuelan economy will contract by 25% and that inflation will increase by 6,500% from 2019. All of this has left roughly 94% of the population living below the poverty line.
Moreover, although Western actors seem intent on propping up opposition leader Juan Guaidó, the truth is that neither he nor Maduro are popular among Venezuelans. Despite Guaidó claiming that the low voter turnout was due to voter disenfranchisement and the fact that over 24 opposition parties boycotted the election, a November survey by Caracas-based pollster Meganalisis revealed that “81.2% want Maduro and the socialist party to leave power”, “89.1% consider Guaidó a ‘burden’ on the nation”, and that 74.8% of the population saw no point in voting on Sunday as they felt as though neither result would bring any improvement.
The latest result from Venezuela’s parliamentary elections is only likely to make Venezuela’s already impoverished and desperate citizens even more vulnerable. Yet, with an opposition that few appear to have any confidence or trust in, citizens’ calls for change and help are unlikely to be answered in the near future. Moreover, even if the opposition were capable of enacting change, their ability to do so has vanished through the dissipation of their control over the national assembly, which has in turn reduced the legitimacy of Guaidó.
Maduro Wins Venezuelan Parliamentary Election, Gains Control of All State Institutions
The victory of the ruling coalition has, as expected, been contested by a number of international actors, who have deemed the election fraudulent and illegitimate.
December 8, 2020
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro (R) SOURCE: AFP