Following the conclusion of Venezuela’s parliamentary elections this past weekend, in which the ruling coalition won around 69% of the votes, the PSUV-GPP coalition, led by President Nicolás Maduro has secured 253 out of 277 seats in the legislature. This gives the leader control over 91% of the National assembly, which had previously been under the control of the Juan Guaidó-led opposition.
The vote has been called fraudulent by the opposition, given that over 24 parties boycotted the election. At the same time, over five million Venezuelans have emigrated from the country due to rising inflation, unemployment, and crime, and fuel, medicinal, and food shortages. Many of them would have likely voted against Maduro, assuming the election was free and fair to begin with.
In response, opposition leader Guaidó is holding an independent referendum on December 12, in which he will ask citizens whether or not they accept the results of the parliamentary elections and if they want a change in power.
Guaidó is supported by well over 50 nations who consider him to be the legitimate leader of the country. In fact, the United States (US), the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), and the Organisation of American States (OAS) have rejected the results of the legislative election.
Likewise, the International Contact Group released a statement this week detailing their rejection of the results. The document was signed by Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, the European Union (EU), France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Panama, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Uruguay.
Maduro, on the other hand, retains the support of powerful allies such as Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Ecuador. Furthermore, there doesn’t appear to be a consensus among the groups that have rejected the election results either. For instance, Argentina did not sign the statements of the OAS or the International Contact Group.
In fact, Argentina’s ambassador to the OAS, Carlos Raimundi, said “It is contradictory to stress that the only way out for Venezuela is a presumed transition government and at the same time to disregard the importance of compliance with the Venezuelan Constitution.”
Other democratic parties, however, succumbed to incessant pressure placed by Maduro and his allies on the country’s democratic institutions. For instance, Democratic Action, which for years was an opposition party, has now aligned itself with the government in order to gain some sort of political foothold, and in doing so won 11 seats. The leadership of the Democratic Action Party, alongside the Justice First Party, was taken over by Maduro loyalists in June following an order by the Maduro-controlled Supreme Court, who described it as a “necessary restructuring process”.
Guaidó, however, has called for additional sanctions on the Maduro regime, telling the Associated Press, “We must review these mechanisms at the international level to exert pressure on this dictatorship and find a solution,” adding, “We have to use the tools at our disposal to stop this violation of human rights.” He remarked that “Maduro’s regime wants to annihilate any form of alternative democracy.”
However, despite popular discontent and disapproval of Maduro’s rule, the opposition is not faring much better. A November survey by Caracas-based pollster Meganalisis revealed that “81.2% want Maduro and the socialist party to leave power”, “89.1% consider Guaidó a ‘burden’ on the nation”, and that 74.8% of the population saw no point in voting on Sunday as they felt as though neither result would bring any improvement. These figures are corroborated by the fact that Guaidó’s approval rating plummeted from 61% in February to 30% in November.
In fact, in an interview with the BBC, another opposition politician, Henrique Capriles, said that Guaidó’s and his Voluntad Popular party are “finished, closed, done” and that the opposition has “no leader, no leadership, no boss”. Like Guaidó, Capriles agrees with the use of sanctions as a form of political pressure, but differs in that he is wary of placing too much power in the hands of the US in the endeavour to unseat Maduro.
Some worry that Guaidó’s window of opportunity has now closed, given that his legitimacy as the ‘interim’ leader was derived from the fact that he was the head of the opposition-led National Assembly. Without that title, he is now just another opposition politician. Moreover, the National Assembly has the power to influence the legislative arm of the country, which passes laws and approves the national budget. As per the constitution, the legislature must approve any international treaties and contracts with foreign companies, giving the body significant influence on the country’s economy and foreign investment. Hence, now that the parliament is no longer under the control of the opposition, the sanctions Guaidó is calling for are likely to be less effective, given that the ruling government can now invite a greater level of foreign investment.
The Maduro administration appears to have been preparing for this outcome as well. In October, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez unveiled the newly approved constitutional anti-blockade law that seeks to limit the economic damage wrought by US sanctions by offering new avenues to protect foreign investment in the oil, gas, mining, agriculture, and tourism industries. The announcement appeared to suggest that Venezuela will provide labor and tax incentives to incentivize foreign investment.
There is a growing realization among international investors that, despite heavy international pressure and the recognition of opposition leader Guaidó as the legitimate interim leader of the country, a change in government may be becoming increasingly unlikely. The latest results from the parliamentary elections will only serve to cement this line of thinking. Hence, this may cause investors to flock back to Venezuela, as evidenced by the fact that foreign investors had already begun buying Venezuelan bonds prior to the election, even though these bonds had “not been serviced in nearly three years”. Furthermore, Venezuelan oil exports tripled in November despite heavy US sanctions on state-owned oil company PDVSA.
The door now appears to be firmly shutting on Guaidó and his allies. President Maduro announced on Tuesday that the current legislative body would cease operations this month so as to allow for the new parliamentarians to enter the National Assembly on January 6. He remarked, “Now the Assembly reflects the composition of Venezuelan society, whereas the bourgeois entity of these five years was never a reflection of that, but of the interests of small groups, of small political mafias.”
Maduro-led Coalition Grabs 91% of Legislature’s Seats in Disputed Parliamentary Election
The vote has been called fraudulent by the opposition, given that over 24 parties boycotted the election. Several international actors have rejected the results, including the US, the UK, and the EU.
December 11, 2020
IMAGE SOURCE: YURI CORTEZ / AFPVenezuelan President Nicolás Maduro