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Israeli lawmakers on Wednesday gave preliminary approval to dissolve the current Netanyahu government, putting the country on track for a potential fourth election in two years. The motion of no confidence passed in the parliament (also known as the Knesset) with a 61-54 vote, and was supported by  Defence Minister Benny Gantz’s  Blue and White party. The bill will now likely be sent to the Knesset’s House Committee, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party and Gantz will enter negotiations to work out their differences. 

Netanyahu has been in power since 2009, after serving as premier from 1996 to 1999. However, Likud failed to form a majority in the general elections held in April and September 2019 and in March this year primarily due to alleged corruption charges against him, and the government’s mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic. After signing a power-sharing agreement with opposition leader Gantz, Netanyahu began his fifth consecutive term as prime minister in May 2020. 

According to the “rotation” clause in the deal signed in May, Gantz, head of the centrist Blue and White party, is due to take over from Israel’s longest-serving leader in November 2021 after the national budget is passed. However, Gantz has accused Netanyahu of refusing to pass the 2020 and 2021 state budget in one go—as per the coalition agreement—which he believes was done to prolong Netanyahu’s term. Following the breach of the clause, Gantz announced that he would support the bill to dissolve the government. 

“I had no illusions about Netanyahu,” said Gantz. “I was well aware of his track record as a serial promise-breaker, but I thought that the people of Israel are more important than one leader and that Netanyahu would rise to the occasion. Much to my dismay, that didn't happen. Netanyahu is on a trail of personal survival from his trial”. 

However, Netanyahu urged Gantz to keep the government together in order to maintain the unity to fight the coronavirus pandemic and save the economy. He accused Gantz of threatening national stability, saying: Benny, what you need to do now is do a U-turn away from politics, for the people of Israel,” adding, “I’ve said for a long time, this is not the time for elections. It’s time for unity,”  

According to Israeli law, failure to pass the budget by December 23 will automatically result in the dissolution of the current government and trigger early elections in March. In that case, the timing of an early ballot could be crucial for Netanyahu. According to analysts, the current premier would benefit more from a May-June election after a COVID-19 vaccine is introduced in the country, as it would give a much-needed boost to the nation’s economy. Gantz, in any case, is expected to face a drop in political support after reneging on his election promises of not joining forces with Likud. Despite the corruption charges against Netanyahu, recent opinion polls have predicted a strong showing for right-wing and religious parties that could rally around the PM or another conservative challenger, such as former Defence Minister Naftali Bennett.

The political tensions in Israel could result in more uncertainty, amid the already overwhelming economic crisis brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. The instability can delay Israel’s preparations for a new US administration led by Joe Biden and for Iran’s next moves after it accused Israel of assassinating one of its top nuclear scientists last week.