With the Russian invasion of Ukraine marking its one-year anniversary this month, Israel has managed to carefully tread the tightrope between the two countries despite growing pressure from the US-led Western coalition to actively support Kyiv against Moscow.
Israel has steadfastly refused Ukraine’s pleas to send modern air defence systems, like the Iron Dome and Arrow 3, instead providing humanitarian aid, despite a strong pro-Ukrainian sentiment among Israelis. In fact, the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial denounced the Russian invasion, and as per a poll, nearly 76% of Israeli citizens hold Moscow responsible for the war.
Turkey has been a much better ally than Israel in this conflict. Israel needs to step it up and forsake neutrality if it wants continued massive U.S. aid.
— Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 (@Noahpinion) July 14, 2022
Israel is home to more than a million Soviet immigrants, and therefore, was more focused on pursuing diplomacy to resolve the conflict. It was the first country to mediate between Russia and Ukraine back in March; however, this did not result in any substantial breakthrough.
Regardless, then-PM Naftali Bennett considered finding a resolution to the conflict a moral duty, and refused to criticise Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly for the military action in order to sustain Israeli-Russian ties, despite Israel’s allies strongly condemning Moscow. He also recently revealed that the Russian leader promised not to get his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky killed during the course of the conflict, while disclosing that Putin acknowledged that the war was not going according to plan and proving to be a “difficult” exercise.
It came as a surprise as Russian experts, and even observers globally, believed that Moscow’s victory was inevitable due to its considerably large armed forces and modern weaponry as compared to those of Kyiv’s. The assumption was that Russia would successfully capture Kyiv within a few weeks, topple the Zelensky government, install a pro-Russian president, and thereby fulfil its objectives for launching the military operation. This notion was so strong that Bennett even tried to convince Zelensky to concede some of its territories to Russia to reinstate peace.
However, as the war progressed, it became increasingly clear that the Russian forces had underestimated Ukraine, and the billions of dollars’ worth of Western weapons only led to Kyiv maintaining its control and, later on, even retaking large swathes of land.
Important story. Team Biden is attacking Israel b/c they want to intimidate them into silence on Iran. They don't really believe if Israel entangled themselves more it would stop Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Israel has an impossibly delicate balancing act w/ Russia in Syria. https://t.co/hHMVgoMnyD
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) March 27, 2022
Israeli officials have also raised concerns that weapons supplied to Ukraine could end up in Iranian hands, as Iran’s forces are believed to be on the ground in Crimea to train Russian forces. Nevertheless, Israel has often been criticised for having a delayed response in condemning the war and not doing enough to help Ukraine as compared to its Western partners.
The main reason for its alleged neutrality has been Israel’s years-long understanding with Russia over Syria. In the past five years, Israel has launched thousands of strikes against Iranian proxies, such as Hezbollah, in Syria, whose airspace has been under Russia’s control since the 2011 civil war.
However, things changed for Israel when Iran’s open military support for Russia in Ukraine came to the fore. In July, the US revealed that Tehran was supplying hundreds of drones to Moscow, which were being used to target Ukraine’s civilian sites. Subsequently, the US and its allies levied additional sanctions against Tehran, effectively terminating the revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Later in November, Iran reportedly signed a pact with Russia to manufacture drones on Russian soil. In exchange, Moscow allegedly promised to share its nuclear technology with Tehran, as the latter is reportedly on the cusp of developing a nuclear weapon because it allegedly has a stockpile of over 70 kgs of 60% enriched uranium, not far from the 90% weapons-grade level.
In this respect, Israel has repeatedly declared that it would not hesitate to use force to stop Iran’s nuclear programme. Accordingly, providing weapons to Ukraine could be a possible way to deter Russia from supporting Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
“Iran is assisting Russia, particularly with drone technology, to reap even greater destruction on Ukraine. I now believe it should be understood to be in Israel’s interest to try to undercut and prevent Iran from succeeding,” says former US Secretary of State @HillaryClinton. pic.twitter.com/aDBvfyIVzW
— Christiane Amanpour (@amanpour) December 1, 2022
Additionally, Russia gave $140 million and a variety of Western weapons seized in Ukraine to Iran for Iranian drones. Both Tehran and Moscow have repeatedly denied forming a defence alliance, with the Russian Foreign Ministry declaring that the West’s pressure was “no obstacle” to their partnership, as the Russian-Iranian trade had increased by over 20% to reach $5 billion last year.
Against this backdrop, Israel considered sending low-end weapons to Kyiv in October, but former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that supplying weapons to Kyiv would “destroy” all interstate relations with Israel. Subsequently, then-Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz announced that no military support could be provided to Ukraine, citing operational issues. Moreover, it was widely believed after the 1 November elections, which PM Benjamin Netanyahu won, that Israel’s support for Ukraine would reduce significantly and lean more towards Russia, as Netanyahu was a Putin ally.
Despite this, Netanyahu, who was against arming Ukraine against Russia since the beginning of the invasion, reiterated in a phone call with Putin in December that Israel is firm about Iran never attaining a nuclear weapon. Nevertheless, in light of the growing developments between Russia and Iran, he appeared to change his mind earlier this month, saying that he was “looking at ways” to give weapons to Ukraine, and ordered a policy review on the Russia-Ukraine war as well.
Three Israeli officials further revealed that Israel’s support for Ukraine would continue to flow as before, if not more. Moreover, Israel fears that Iran’s increasing influence would endanger its sovereignty as Tehran’s engagement in Ukraine could improve the regime’s military expertise. Given that Iran has numerous proxy militias across the Middle East, and several of them close to Israel’s border, the Netanyahu government would be wary of Iran getting more experienced through involvement in Ukraine.
Prime Minister Yair Lapid spoke with Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba.
— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) October 20, 2022
PM Lapid received an update on the war in Ukraine, and emphasized that Israel stands with the Ukrainian people.
The PM emphasized his deep concern about the military ties between Iran and Russia.
In response, Russia warned again that any attempt to supply military support “will lead to an escalation of this crisis.” Though Moscow’s warnings have seemingly impacted Israel positively to date, there is no guarantee that the latter would always toe the line. If Israel’s national security is threatened in any way, it would be forced to take necessary actions like supplying significant military, economic, and humanitarian support to Ukraine while decrying Russia’s war crimes on all platforms.
In this respect, Israel has frequently bombed Iranian targets in Syria despite strong condemnation by the international community. Apart from Syria, Israel has also been taking military actions in the West Bank for decades now. The latest such incident involved a raid in the region last week, killing 11 and leading to another round of air strikes between Israel and Palestinian militants in the Gaza strip.
Israel is a unique player on the world stage and has been criticised for choosing to be “Western” as and when this appears beneficial to it. Moreover, Netanyahu has pointed out that Israel has to first keep its “backyard” in check, referring to the Palestinian conflict, before getting overtly involved in other crises.
There is genuine anger towards Israel amongst hardliners in Russia, as discussions about missile deliveries to Ukraine reach the Israeli NSC level as Iran arms Russia. Doubly ironic as Prigozhin is Jewish https://t.co/W2SIL7nGWg
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) November 21, 2022
Nonetheless, Russia would have to deal with Israel pragmatically, without unnecessarily raising its hackles, to avoid creating more issues on the war front. With Moscow facing more losses than wins on the battlefield, and speculations of a spring attack gaining traction, Israel deciding to support Kyiv would only adversely impact Russia, compounding the Kremlin’s deplorable state of military affairs. Instead of trying their hardest to appear strong in the face of worldwide rebuke, Moscow would have one more former friend-turned-opponent joining the Western ranks.
However, before Israel makes a decision, it has to carefully consider Iran’s increasing role in the Ukraine conflict. Despite Tehran facing difficult domestic issues, it has not lost sight of its goals in relation to its enemies — a la Israel, which it has vowed to obliterate. Thus, Iran gaining military experience in Ukraine, and acquiring a nuclear weapon with the help of Russia, would only endanger Israel.
In sum, while Israel is acutely aware of the risk posed by Iran’s increasing role in Ukraine, it is also conscious of Russia’s stronghold on Syria. Therein lies Israel’s conundrum, that is, whether to supply its advanced, avant-garde weapons to Kyiv.
In this regard, whatever path Israel chooses, it will inevitably come with risks. However, Israel’s recent actions may suggest that Iran’s activities in Ukraine have crossed the tipping point, and Kyiv getting hold of Israeli weapons could be the next major phase of the war.