With day-long powercuts and lines for fuel, severe food and medicinal shortages, and protestors barging into the residences of the president and the prime minister, the crisis in Sri Lanka shows no sign of relenting. India, in turn, has “responded with urgency” and deployed $3.8 billion worth of aid through currency swaps, lines of credit, and assistance to purchase essentials such as food, fuel, medicines, and fertilisers.
Yet, while Indian External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar has acknowledged the severity of the crisis and underscored India’s intention to help Sri Lanka get back on its feet, he has explicitly denied the possibility of a refugee influx.
The slightest miscalculation of this risk could prove highly costly for India, a country that is already struggling to meet the needs of over 100,000 Sri Lankan refugees.
While the former Sri Lankan government had launched negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure a bailout, which India has vowed to facilitate, the collapse of the government, particularly with now-former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation, and continued protests indicate a prolonged crisis.
Sri Lanka’s economic situation is only likely to deteriorate even further with the combined effect of the enduring COVID-19 pandemic and political unrest, both of which have severely impacted the heavily tourism-dependent country.
Furthermore, President Ranil Wickremesinghe is yet to form an all-party government as promised or appoint a finance minister to lead discussions with the IMF. Moreover, the international organisation had said that while it supports Sri Lanka in its efforts to mitigate the economic crisis, it cannot finalise a deal until the political situation has stabilised.
We are closely monitoring the ongoing developments in Sri Lanka 🇱🇰. We hope for a resolution of the current situation that will allow for resumption of our dialogue on an IMF-supported program. pic.twitter.com/xo1jNoGTea
— Gerry Rice (@IMFSpokesperson) July 14, 2022
Inflation has reached a record high of 59%, with inflation in essential food items such as rice, flour, and sugar surging to 160%, 200%, and 164%, respectively.
Against this backdrop, former Finance minister Ali Sabry said in May that the crisis will go on for at least two years.
Keeping this warning of a prolonged crisis in mind, several Indian politicians have highlighted the threat of a prospective mass influx of refugees.
Tamil Nadu, which is just 30 miles from the Sri Lankan coast and has also historically supported the cause of the Tamil minority on the island nation, brought up concerns about a migrant wave during a meeting with EAM Jaishankar and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last week.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin has also urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to grant refugee status to Sri Lankans seeking to escape the economic situation.
The central government, however, has failed to publicly recognise the possibility of an impending crisis on Indian shores.
Keeping this in mind, as well as its general concern for the situation in Sri Lanka, the Tamil Nadu government has provided $24.6 million in aid to Colombo to help mitigate the crisis and perhaps prevent or delay the influx of refugees into its territory.
Sri Lanka today received Rs. 2 Billion worth Humanitarian aid including milk powder, rice and medicines from India. Our sincere gratitude to the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Hon. @mkstalin and the People of India for the support extended (1/2)
— Ranil Wickremesinghe (@RW_UNP) May 22, 2022
Despite these belated efforts, however, signs of a migrant influx have been apparent for months now. While the Indian and Sri Lankan governments have remained silent on the issue, local media reports indicate that several Sri Lankan families have already shown up at the shores of Tamil Nadu. In total, at least 112 people have arrived in India since the beginning of the crisis in January, with many seeking refuge in Ramanathapuram.
Sri Lankans have also sought refuge in Australia, where authorities have denied asylum requests. Since May, 353 individuals have reached Australia on 10 boats, with the last arriving just last week, carrying 35 men, women, and children. In recognition of the threat of this number continuing to grow, the Australian government has provided $50 million in aid to help Sri Lanka meet its urgent food and medical needs. Crucially, the aid will also be spent on installing GPS trackers on at least 4,000 boats to prevent asylum seekers from arriving at Australian shores.
India must therefore follow Australia’s lead in pre-empting a mass refugee influx, particularly in light of its previous experiences with conflicts in its neighbourhood. In fact, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of January 31, 2022, India houses 46,000 refugees, most of whom reached India to escape political crises in their own countries.
Moreover, these are only the registered cases. According to independent estimates by the Rights and Risks Analysis Group, there are over 400,000 refugees in India, many of whom are unregistered, illustrating how India is unable to effectively control or monitor migrant surges.
For instance, following the Taliban’s takeover last year, India received 60,000 applications from Afghanistan for electronic visas. However, as of December 2021, merely 200 visas were issued, while the other applications remained pending awaiting security clearances.
Considering Sri Lanka’s political, historical, cultural, and geographical proximity to India, it is possible that India could be on the verge of its biggest refugee influx yet.
Also Read: India Cannot Leave Its Sri Lankan Tamil Refugees In Limbo Any Longer
This possibility becomes all the more likely when one considers India’s history of providing refuge to Sri Lankans. According to the Home Ministry’s 2021 estimates, India houses 58,842 Sri Lankan Tamils (though independent media reports suggest that the number has crossed 100,000) spread across 108 refugee camps in Tamil Nadu, with 34,135 others staying outside the camps.
Many of these refugees have been given Registration Certificates as a form of identification and also receive government assistance. In fact, the Tamil government announced a $39.7 million package for Sri Lankan Tamils just last August. Such policies, in the absence of strict border controls, could push even more Sri Lankans to arrive at Indian shores.
However, the 100-plus Sri Lankans who have arrived in India over the past few months as “economic” refugees have not been welcomed in the same way as the “political” asylum seekers and have been detained for illegally entering the country, indicating that India is not only not prepared for their arrival but also that it doesn’t welcome it. Given India’s porous borders and the disastrous state of Sri Lanka’s economy, detaining a few dozen asylum seekers is unlikely to be a sufficient deterrent and could thus fuel a wave of illegal immigration.
India’s lack of preparedness for refugee crises primarily stems from its lack of legal protections for refugees and its failure to sign the United Nations Refugee Convention. As things stand, the Foreigners Act, which governs foreign nationals that have entered the country without valid visas, treats all such individuals as illegal immigrants and provides no guidelines on how to protect the rights and freedoms of such individuals. As a result, the treatment, protection, and integration of refugees in India are highly arbitrary, with several facing imprisonment or deportation. Even deportations, however, face significant roadblocks due to a lack of legal procedures to expedite the process, as evidenced by tens of thousands of refugees whom New Delhi clearly has no intention of integrating but still remain in camps or scattered across the country.
At this stage, just over 100 Sri Lankans have entered India since the beginning of the crisis. These numbers will only rise from here on in. Yet, India lacks the logistical resources and legal pathways to both house or deport them. It is therefore imperative for India to not only tighten its surveillance and review its risk assessment but also make a concerted effort to introduce comprehensive laws that allow it to more effectively address seemingly inevitable refugee influxes, regardless of whether it plans to take them in or deport them.