The Biden administration has found itself in a dilemma over the question of reengaging with Saudi Arabia, with the Democratic party severely divided on the issue. Prominent voices within the party, like Rep. Adam Schiff, oppose any sort of ties with the Saudi leadership, citing human rights violations, while a strong faction argues that the United States should not abandon a crucial strategical ally.
Despite intra-party disagreements, however, President Joe Biden has decided to test the waters by trying to reset ties with the Kingdom, which have hit rock bottom since he took office in January 2021. Biden is expected to travel to Riyadh next month and meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).
Cracks started to emerge in the US-Saudi alliance, which is one of the key pillars of Washington’s Middle East policy, in early 2021 and have continued to widen. One of Biden’s key campaign promises was to prioritise human rights issues in his foreign policy; as a result, his administration has taken several steps to censure Riyadh for its rights abuses.
This has included blaming MBS for the cold-blooded murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, imposing sanctions on Saudi officials for Khashoggi’s death, and halting military aid to the Kingdom over rights violations in Yemen. In fact, the US removed its Patriot anti-missile battery systems stationed in the Gulf country. Following the move, Yemen’s Houthi militia increased missile attacks against Saudi Arabia, prompting concerns from Riyadh about Washington’s commitment to their historic, time-tested relations.
The Saudi leadership was also upset with the US’ hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, its insistence on reviving the Iran nuclear deal, and potentially relaxing sanctions on Tehran as well as removing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organisations.
These measures have not achieved their intended result of coercing Riyadh to abide by international norms. On the contrary, they have spurred Saudi Arabia to take retaliatory manoeuvres against the US and according to reports, dealt irreparable damage to ties.
This has been reflected in statements made by senior Saudi officials, including the Crown Prince. In an interview with The Atlantic in March, MBS expressed his frustrations with the Biden administration when he said that the accusation levelled against him regarding Khashoggi’s death was the “worst thing ever to happen” to him and the US’ decision was unfair. He added that the Biden administration would only harm Washington’s interests by isolating Riyadh and put the ball in the US President’s court by saying that “it’s up to him [Biden] to think about the interests of America.”
I am very disappointed to hear that President Biden @POTUS is planning to visit MBS in Saudi Arabia. A US resident was murdered for defending democracy and human rights in the country and now Biden is legitimising this action. https://t.co/b5mWc9SwN8
— Hatice Cengiz / خديجة (@mercan_resifi) June 15, 2022
In addition, MBS conveyed his displeasure to US National Security Advisor (NSA) Jake Sullivan during a meeting in Riyadh last year when the issue of Khashoggi was raised and warned Sullivan against bringing up the issue again. MBS also recently refused to hold a phone call with Biden.
Royal family member and former intelligence official Prince Turki bin Faisal said the Kingdom feels “let down” by the US and has lambasted Biden for his policies, including delisting the Houthis as a terrorist organisation and withdrawing anti-missile batteries. He also blamed Washington for refusing to help Riyadh when it needed it the most, referring to the Houthi missile attacks on Saudi cities.
Another consequence of US actions against Saudi Arabia has been that the Kingdom has sought to build closer ties with China and Russia, two of Washington’s biggest rivals. For instance, the Wall Street Journal reported in 2020 that Saudi Arabia has signed a deal with China to construct a facility for the extraction of uranium yellowcake, reportedly in a bid to advance the Kingdom’s nuclear technology facilities.
US President Joe Biden’s expected visit to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince MBS risks encouraging new abuses and furthering impunity.
— Human Rights Watch (@hrw) June 9, 2022
Any meeting with a foreign official provides them instant credibility on a global stage, whether intended or not.https://t.co/bjYc0naaU9 pic.twitter.com/xCC5AK4aRn
Furthermore, in December, US intelligence agencies reported that Saudi Arabia is manufacturing ballistic missiles with the help of China. Saudi Arabia has even been considering accepting the yuan for its oil sales to China instead of the US dollar, a move that could potentially hurt the United States Dollar’s (USD) dominance in the global oil market as well as its standing as the global reserve currency.
Riyadh has also been warming up to Moscow and has withstood Western pressure to isolate Russia. Earlier this month, the foreign ministers of Russia and Saudi Arabia reaffirmed their “tight commitment” to work together to stabilise rising oil prices globally, in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. The Kingdom has also signalled support for Russia’s role in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+).
Riyadh has also refused to ramp up oil production in an effort to global gas prices despite numerous requests from Washington. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton accused Saudi Arabia of colluding with Russia by not joining the global push to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war. Clinton’s comments further inflamed tensions, with Riyadh retorting that it can make independent decisions as a sovereign country.
For the first time i see the Saudi TV mocking the US administration. pic.twitter.com/8vPtU0txJ8
— Asaad Sam Hanna (@AsaadHannaa) April 12, 2022
This discontent with the US has manifested itself both within the government and in popular interpretations of Biden’s perceived incompetence. In April, a clip from Saudi comedy TV show ‘Studio 22’ went viral after it echoed former President Donald Trump’s ‘Sleepy Joe’ jibes. The clip portrayed Biden as incapable of making decisions and dependent on Vice President Kamala Harris to mask his age-induced deficiencies.
Against this backdrop, while Biden’s upcoming visit to the Kingdom is aimed at placating the monarchy, his administration cannot hope that the trip will automatically erase all the damage that has been done. It is also unlikely that Saudi Arabia will restrict its burgeoning ties with China and Russia in an effort to mend relations with the US. Experts have indicated that MBS could use ties with China and Russia as “bargaining chips” with the US and prevent Washington from taking decisions that would negatively affect Riyadh. In fact, the Crown Prince recently suggested that the Kingdom would seek to establish greater ties with Beijing and Moscow to punish Washington.
In this respect, the only feasible option available for Washington to salvage its ties with Riyadh is to keep engaging with the Saudi leadership. According to Saudi dissident and international relations scholar Khalid Aljabry, the US should undertake credible steps to restore the Kingdom’s confidence in the alliance, including by guaranteeing support for Riyadh’s security interests. Nevertheless, the dent has already been made and restoring ties to its golden days would take a serious effort from both sides, which at the moment appears highly unlikely.