The director of the United States’ (US) Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns, warned that although the Ukraine war has affected China’s calculations on when to invade Taiwan, it remains committed to reunifying the island with the mainland by force.
Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado on Wednesday, Burns Burns said, “The risks of that [China’s invasion of Taiwan] become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get.” However, he brushed aside speculation that President Xi Jinping will move to use force against Taiwan after a major Communist Party meeting in November.
The intelligence chief added that although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have done little to change Beijing’s mind about forcefully taking over Taiwan, it has possibly caused it to reconsider how and when it will do so. “Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it,” Burns said. “I wouldn’t underestimate President Xi’s determination to assert China’s control,” he asserted.
On Taiwan:
— Aspen Security Forum (@AspenSecurity) July 20, 2022
Director Burns outlines what he thinks the Chinese have learned from Russia's invasion and subsequent war in Ukraine. #AspenSecurity pic.twitter.com/77YGq7doMs
Burns added that the Asian giant probably learnt from the Ukraine war that “you don’t achieve quick, decisive victories with underwhelming force”. “I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you’ve got to amass overwhelming force if you’re going to contemplate that in the future,” he opined.
Burns went on to add that China was possibly “unsettled” to observe Russia’s long war in Ukraine, which is now nearing the end of its fifth month and has seen Russia lose over 36,000 troops, 1500 tanks, 3700 Armored Protected Vehicles, 800 artillery systems, 200 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, 100 anti-aircraft warfare systems, 200 aircraft, 150 helicopters, 15 warships, and 2600 vehicles and fuel tanks. Keeping this in mind, the CIA director characterised the Ukraine invasion as a “strategic failure” for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had intended to secure Russian dominance over Ukraine within a week.
On the lessons China is learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, CIA Director Burns says it “affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they might do it.” #AspenSecurity
— Aspen Security Forum (@AspenSecurity) July 20, 2022
Burns’ assessment of a possible future invasion of Taiwan later in the decade falls in line with Washington’s past predictions on the issue. Admiral Philip Davidson, the former head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, predicted last year that China will attempt to invade Taiwan within the next six years. In fact, the prediction was mirrored by Chinese international relations expert Jin Canrong, who said that the 2027 deadline also has a very symbolic value for the Communist Party because it will be the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). In fact, Xi has called on the PLA to fully modernise itself by 2027.
Speaking before Burns at the same event, China’s ambassador to the United States (US), Qin Gang, criticised Washington for “hollowing” and “blurring out” the ‘one-China’ policy, which China uses to justify its claim over Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang. He called out Washington for “essentially uplifting official links with Taiwan,” “sending more officials to the island, sending sophisticated weapons and even saying the US would defend Taiwan militarily.” “Only by adhering strictly to the One-China policy, only by joining hands to constrain and oppose Taiwan independence, can we have a peaceful reunification,” Qin stressed.
CIA Director: don’t underestimate President Xi of China determination to control Taiwan. The risks of a possible invasion of Taiwan becomes higher going into the end of the decade #AspenSecurity
— James Levinson (@james_levinson) July 20, 2022
Beijing, which considers the self-governing island to be a breakaway province, has threatened on several previous occasions that reunification is only a matter of time and could be achieved via force if necessary. Since the onset of Russia’s war against Ukraine, China has not just amplified Russian propaganda but has also increased its incursions into Taiwanese territory.
Washington holds an official stance of respecting the “one-China” policy, which recognises China’s status as the sole legitimate government of Taiwan and thus prevents the US from acknowledging that Taiwan is independent of China. Equally, however, the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) is also considered to be the “cornerstone” of the US’ ties with Taiwan, requires the US to provide the island with the means to defend itself in case Taiwan’s peace is threatened.