A new report released on Monday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, claims that China will likely fail if it attempts to invade Taiwan — an event predicted to occur in 2026.
AIMS AND METHODOLOGY
The study, titled The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, aimed to assess how the US should alter its policy in the event that China does attempt to invade the self-governing island. “If US intervention can thwart an invasion under certain conditions and by relying on certain key capabilities, then US policy should be shaped accordingly,” it said.
Noting that Chinese authorities “have become increasingly strident about unifying Taiwan,” CSIS simulated a wargame for an amphibious invasion of Taiwan by China, using historical data and operations research, and tested the model 24 times.
FINDINGS
In every simulation, the invasion “always starts the same way: an opening bombardment destroys most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in the first hours of hostilities,” CSIS reported.
CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that a democratic, independent Taiwan endures in most scenarios. But the costs are enormous, write @csis_isp expert Mark F. Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham.
— CSIS (@CSIS) January 9, 2023
Read the report: https://t.co/K4QfOmtdZN pic.twitter.com/Ea1KzDFGvf
It went on to say that “augmented by a powerful rocket force, the Chinese navy encircles Taiwan and interdicts any attempts to get ships and aircraft to the besieged island.”
However, in most outcomes, Taiwan, along with the help of the US and Japan, succeeded in preventing a conventional amphibious invasion. “China’s strikes on Japanese bases and US surface ships cannot change the result: Taiwan remains autonomous,” it claimed.
However, the organisation noted that such defence came “at high cost.”
It found that the US and its allies “lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of service members” in the effort. The large-scale losses also “damaged” the US’ “global position” for “many years.”
Taiwan’s economy was also “devastated” by the effort.
Similarly, China “lost heavily” from the failed endeavour and risked destabilising the rule of the Chinese Communist Party.
NEW: CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that a democratic, independent Taiwan endures in most scenarios. But the costs are enormous, write @csis_isp expert Mark F. Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham.
— CSIS (@CSIS) January 9, 2023
Read the report: https://t.co/K4QfOmtLPl pic.twitter.com/Yuuyp0m0wE
CONCLUSION
The report noted that simply securing a victory over China was “not enough” and recommended that Washington “strengthen deterrence immediately.”
It further outlined that despite China’s failure, Taiwan’s military would be “severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services.”
“China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war,” it concluded.