In a highly unusual move, China delayed the publication of economic indicators scheduled for release this week, stirring rumours of an economic downturn for the Asian superpower.
The data, which included figures for the third quarter (Q3) GDP, was originally scheduled for release at 10:00 am local time on Tuesday. The report was highly-anticipated, as the world’s second-largest economy grew a mere 0.4% in the second quarter last year due to COVID-19 restrictions and a real estate slump.
Reuters reported that “a person answering the telephone” at the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) media office informed that the change had been “due to adjustment to work arrangements,” but did not provide any further details. The department has also not provided a date for a rescheduled release of the document.
As per economists polled by Reuters, the Asian giant’s GDP is believed to have expanded by 3.4% from July to September, as its economy started to benefit from a string of supportive government policies introduced in recent months. Similarly, economists polled by Nikkei calculated a growth rate of 3.2%.
Referring to this, Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle in Hong Kong, reasoned that the delayed economic data release was “not because of bad economic recovery” but because of “the ongoing congress, as authorities want media and the public to concentrate on the key messages delivered by the big event.” He added that the delay is “unlikely to affect market sentiment” as “most preliminary economic data pointed to a pick-up in recovery in the third quarter.”
China's $17 trillion dollar economy could be closer $10 trillion, according to study cited in The Economist
— Prof. Michael Tanchum (@michaeltanchum) October 16, 2022
➡️🇨🇳⚠️ Study suggests #China's GDP actually $7 trillion smaller than what CCP claims. https://t.co/qxL3bchICx pic.twitter.com/43k3kdv6Ty
In contrast, Nick Marro, the global trade lead at the Economist Intelligence Unit, tweeted that the superpower’s delay for Q3 “says all you need to know about the status of the economy.” Moreover, the third quarter GDP data was released as usual at the Chinese Communist Party’s last congress in 2017.
China’s official target for GDP growth this year, set in March, is “around 5.5%.” However, officials relaxed then relaxed this goal by July, saying it was simply a guidance figure and “not a hard target.”
Similarly, Sun Yeli, the deputy chief of the ruling party’s Publicity Department, said on Saturday: “The speed of growth is indeed an important yardstick of economic performance, but not the only one,” adding, “Instead we focus more on fundamentally resolving the longer-term issues in the economy.”
Furthermore, Zhao Chenxin, the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, has claimed that the economy in fact “rebounded significantly” in Q3. He noted that “orders for energy equipment, petrochemical equipment, mining machinery, construction machinery, computer numerical control machine tools, industrial robots and other key equipment in China are all increasing substantially.”
Along with the third quarter GDP, the NBS was also expected to release several other key figures, including industrial production, retail sales, and the urban unemployment rate, which are typically issued along with GDP data. However, all economic data has been held back as of now, according to the NBS website. The NBS has also held back from releasing data for China’s home prices for September, which had been scheduled for publication on Wednesday.
The delays follow another unexplained delay in the release of September’s trade data by the General Administration of Customs, which was supposed to be published last Friday. The figures were expected to show China’s export growth weakened further from August due to decreased global demand, while its imports remained lukewarm.
The delay comes amid the ongoing 20th Party Congress, which takes place twice a decade and will conclude this week. It is expected that President Xi Jinping will secure a historic third term in power during this key meeting.