On Thursday, Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) was finally able to drive eastern forces out of Tripoli, after a 14-month offensive that has been backed by the fighters and arms of foreign powers. Renegade general Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), which operates out of the eastern city of Benghazi, is said to be pulling back from all the suburbs of the GNA capital.
However, the extent of Haftar’s retreat depends on how quickly Russia–who backs the LNA, along with the United Arab Emirates and Egypt–intervenes with fighter jets to strengthen the force’s line of defence. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose massive military backing is a large contributor to the GNA’s recent successes, already met with the government’s Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj late on Thursday, where he promised that Ankara would ramp up its support for the Tripoli government to ensure that the military gains are locked in. He also pledged joint cooperation for oil exploration in the eastern Mediterranean and stressed that a peaceful solution can only come under the auspices of the United Nations.
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After the violent encounter in the southern suburbs of the capital, GNA’s Interior Minister Fathi Baghagha called the retreat of eastern forces as “the beginning of the end of the entire dictatorship project”. However, Western powers are urging the GNA and its loyal forces not to utilize their newfound military advantage by launching an offensive to the east, but rather by resuming peace talks to possibly form a new national unity government.
So far, some of the biggest hurdles to conflict resolution in the war-torn country have been the proxy involvement of several countries and the continued flow of arms, despite a UN embargo. Most recently, it was revealed that hundreds of Syrian and Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group were fighting alongside the LNA and were evacuated from Tripoli as tensions began to exponentially escalate. Sarraj’s visit to Erdogan on Thursday came after the GNA made gains for weeks, upending the conflict and driving Haftar’s troops back. In a “flurry of diplomacy” this week, Sarraj also sent his deputy to Moscow while Haftar visited Egypt.
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The situation can now go either way as the LNA reassesses its capabilities and positions in the east. It is an imperative time for the GNA to use this opportunity to enter into UN-brokered peace talks with Benghazi.US ambassador to Libya Richard Norland said that while the situation had dangerously escalated, Haftar’s defeat has created new opportunities for the warring sides to stop fighting.
Image Source: Bloomberg