On 17 December 2010, an unknown Tunisian street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, set himself on fire following the confiscation of his fruit cart and public humiliation by government officials. Bouazizi died almost a month later due to severe injuries. The incident led to great public anger against Tunisian dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and kindled the flames of a revolution in the small North African country. What began as a protest against government corruption and economic woes, quickly transformed into a pro-democracy movement—the ‘Jasmine Revolution.’ Ben Ali was ousted on 14 January 2011 after 23 years in power.
Remarkably, the Tunisian revolution served as a catalyst for the emergence of pro-democracy movements, widely referred to as the Arab Spring, across the Middle East and North Africa. In Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain, wave after wave of protestors took to the streets in a bid to topple their respective autocrats. Minor protests also broke out in other parts of the region, including Iraq, Morocco, Jordan, Algeria, Kuwait, and Oman.
However, a decade since the upheaval, democracy is still in shambles in the region. Egypt is run by a military-led government, Libya is desperately trying to change its failed state status, and Yemen and Syria have been pulled into violent civil wars.
Today, Tunisia is the sole success story of the Arab Spring. Following Ben Ali’s ouster, Tunisia embarked on a path of setting up democratic institutions, and most importantly, the country held “free and fair” elections in 2011. In 2014, the country adopted a new constitution and its efforts were recognised by the international community in 2015 when the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet—a group of four civil society organisations—was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its role in producing the historic constitution. Tunisia is also one of two countries in the Middle East and North Africa region to be ranked “free” by Freedom House’s ‘Freedom in the World Report.’
Yet, despite the progress, Tunisia is at risk of reversing most political gains made over the last ten years. On July 25, Tunisian President Kais Saied fired the Prime Minister (PM) and suspended the parliament for 20 days, a move labelled by the opposition as a “coup”, and one which has disturbingly similar parallels with Egypt, where a democratically elected government was toppled by the military.
In 2013, the Egyptian military, led by Abdel Fattah El Sisi, removed then-President Mohamed Morsi from office in a coup following massive public resentment against Morsi’s government. After Morsi was elected as President in 2012, he began a campaign of undermining Egypt’s democratic institutions, granted himself broad powers over the judiciary, stifled dissent, prosecuted critics, and approved attacks on non-violent protestors. This led to massive protests against Morsi in 2012 and 2013, and the military was quick to seize on the popular discontent at the time and oust Morsi.
Similarly, Kais Saied’s move to suspend the parliament, fire the PM, and remove lawmakers’ immunity came amid widespread unrest in Tunisia over government neglect of the economy and its failure to address the worsening COVID-19 crisis. While the pandemic was spreading in Tunisia and cases were spiralling out of control, PM Hichem Mechichi was out visiting a luxury resort. The increasing prices of food items and other consumer goods were also a cause of great concern. In 2018, widespread and violent protests rocked Tunisia over rising food prices that threatened the food security of poor families. In fact, a 2020 poll by the International Republican Institute found that 87% of Tunisians believe that their country is headed in the wrong direction. Furthermore, Freedom House’s ‘Freedom in the world 2020’ report states that the “influence of endemic corruption, economic challenges, security threats, and continued unresolved issues related to gender equality and transitional justice remain obstacles to full democratic consolidation.”
Another notable similarity between the Tunisian and Egyptian political crises is the positioning of both leaders—Saied and El Sisi—as secular alternatives to the mostly conservative and Islamist parties that came to power following the revolutions. Under Morsi’s rule, Egypt’s Coptic Christian and Shia minorities experienced a rise in threats from Sunni extremists. Morsi was also known for his affiliation to the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood and it was believed that the Brotherhood played a major role in drafting the 2012 constitution, which stated that the tenets of Sharia and Islamic law are the main source of legislation. This played right into the hands of El Sisi, who used the anger against the Muslim Brotherhood’s divisive policies to come to power.
Compared to the Muslim Brotherhood, the Ennahda party is more moderate in appearance and has tried hard to distance itself from extreme Islamism. Following the party’s victory in the 2011 elections, it came under pressure from many Tunisians not to make Sharia the main source of legislation and announced that it would not include Islamic law in the constitution. However, critics of the party argue that Ennahda is not as moderate as it claims to be, as many of its members have taken positions against social progress and secular values in the past. For instance, the party and its members’ controversial positions on gender equality, and homosexuality have been criticised by human rights organisations. President Saied has opposed political Islam and differences between the two became open following Saied’s election in 2019.
Lastly, both El Sisi and Saied have strong regional backing. Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia have expressed their overwhelming support for the establishment in Tunis and Cairo. The UAE and Saudi Arabia were among the few countries that were not severely affected by the Arab Spring, and they view the presence of El Sisi and Saied as a source of stability in the region and as a means to keep any political revolutions from taking place within their own boundaries. Assurances of support from the Gulf could have further emboldened Saied to undertake his recent controversial moves.
That being said, while comparisons with Egypt could provide a clearer picture of where Tunisia might be heading, it is too early to say that Tunisia has strayed off the path of democracy. Unlike El Sisi, who was an army general who forcibly took power and became Egypt’s leader, Saied was overwhelmingly elected as President in a public vote in 2019. While Egypt’s President has the backing of the military, Saied lacks similar support from the armed forces. However, the Tunisian President, for now, seems to have the strong backing of the public. Most importantly, Saied claimed that his actions are in accordance with the 2014 constitution. He quoted Article 80 of the constitution, which states that the President “may take any measures necessitated by the exceptional circumstances” after consulting the PM and the Speaker to justify his move. It further mentions that the President should guarantee “a return to the normal functioning of state institutions and services” as soon as possible. This means that Saied would have to return the country back to normalcy within the coming weeks.
To prevent Tunisia from losing its status as a free democracy, the President, apart from restoring the normal functioning of democratic institutions, should facilitate a national dialogue among parties and groups across Tunisia’s fractured political spectrum. A roadmap to address serious challenges, including the economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, needs to be drawn and agreed upon by parties, in what could be a much-needed sign of unity in the country. For now, democracy in Tunisia is not dead as it is in Egypt. But, it is at risk, and the measures Kais Saied takes over the next month could determine the future of Tunisia and whether the country will go down the same treacherous path as Egypt.
A Decade After the Success of the Arab Spring, Is Tunisia Following Egypt’s Path?
The latest crisis in Tunisia threatens to reverse most political gains made over the last ten years and the coming weeks would determine whether the country is able to maintain its democratic status.
August 4, 2021
SOURCE: CNN